The Campbell conundrum

It was an all too familiar sight. 26 minutes into Ayr United’s match against Airdrieonians on Saturday defender Martyn Campbell crumpled to the Somerset Park turf. After a cursory assessment from the physio, the 32 year-old was replaced by Alan Forrest (a player half his size and half his age) and a defensive reshuffle ensued. It was the second such instance this season. In the League Cup at Firhill, United’s second match of the season, Campbell jogged off the park after only 22 minutes with a calf strain that ruled him out of Ayr’s league opener at Arbroath.

The latest injury, a hamstring complaint the full extent of which is still to uncovered, prolongs Campbell’s injury woes, confirming another false dawn and poses significant questions over his continued involvement in Ayr’s starting line-up this season.

Signed in July 2005 from Irvine Meadow, Campbell has made 184 appearances for the Honest Men, averaging over 20 games per season. The statistic hints at the numerous lay-offs which have blighted his time at the club.

Campbell nets the first of his three goals for the club at Gayfield

Campbell played 23 and 21 games in his first two seasons at Somerset Park, absent only for short spells in September 2005, March/April 2006 and again in September 2006. His second season, however, was curtailed by injury and that would signal nearly nine months out. An attempted return in December 2007 the following season saw him limp off after only 8 minutes of his second comeback game, and it was March 2008 until he returned.

The following season saw Ayr United promoted via the play-offs and Campbell played a key role in the side’s success, playing 37 matches, missing only seven matches through injury. He even weighed in with his first goal for the club, away to Arbroath in November 2008. The season was not without disruption, however. Campbell was substituted eight times, on five occasions before the start of the second-half and missed matches in September (a month which appears to be particularly troublesome) and February.

Elevated to the First Division for the first time in his career, Campbell endured a disruptive start to the 2009/10 season. Substituted in both traditional cup openers, including after 25 minutes against Stirling Albion, it was September before he first featured in the league. Another injury in November (Campbell limped off after 10 minutes against Queen of the South) kept the defender out until the end of January. In his return to the side he was unable to prevent United’s relegation, despite being a key figure in a remarkable eight-match unbeaten run between mid-February and mid-March. That run came to an end in a crucial mid-week match at Cappielow. Campbell was forced off after 48 minutes and Ayr went on to lose the match and seven of their remaining eight matches.

United, and Campbell bounced back from that disappointment by securing an immediate return, again via the play-offs the following season. Again Campbell was a mainstay of the side, making 40 appearances in side that had the rare luxury of a generally settled back four. Unfortunately, he has been an largely unreliable figure ever since.

Season 2011/12 saw Campbell start the season with a rare goal (only his third for the club) against Queen of the South in the Challenge Cup on the opening day of the season, a match that went to extra-time. Three games into the league campaign he was involved in an almighty contest with Falkirk’s Morrocan striker Farid El Allagui. The match and the personal duel between Campbell and El Allagui was thrilling: the Morrocan won the contest – Campbell was sent off for a crude challenge on his adversary after 73 minutes – but the game was drawn. Four days later, Campbell lasted only 10 minutes in United’s impressive League Cup victory over Inverness at Somerset Park.

Martyn Campbell jumps higher

After sitting out one league match through suspension, Campbell was back for two consecutive away games, at Partick Thistle and Morton in mid-September. He, and Ayr, toiled, conceding four goals in each match. Campbell went on to miss the next 16 league games. Playing through a painful knee, Campbell went into hospital in October for a routine operation but surgeons found significant cartilage damage that was to keep him out beyond January. The last two months of the season were particularly frustrating, with Campbell in and out of the side. In total, Campbell made 12 starts in an unhappy season as the Honest Men were relegated, at home, by Airdrie United in the play-off semi-final – one of only eight games Campbell played for the full duration.

Worst was to come last season, Mark Roberts’s first in charge. Not risked on Ochilview’s artificial surface in the Ramsden’s Cup Campbell strolled through Ayr’s 6-1 demolition of Clyde and was still on the field when Ross McMillan grabbed a last minute equaliser for Stenhousemuir in the first league game of the campaign. Campbell was named in the starting line-up at Gayfield in the following game – but did not play. A twinge felt in the warm up saw Mark Shankland take his No. 4 shirt and a wholesale reshuffle of the team. Campbell played just 10 more minutes, an early substitution (just like versus Inverness the preceding season) ended his involvement against St. Mirren, and for the rest of the season.

Campbell's season ended after just 3 games last season

It is to Campbell’s immense credit that in November last year he told the club to effectively rip up his contract and stop paying him, as he underwent another knee op. Speaking at the time, Campbell said:

“I don’t want to take anything while I can’t give anything back. 

“I would rather they used my wage to bring someone else in. I love the club and want to see Mark Roberts do well so hopefully this will help. 

“Ironically, I’ve been in my best shape for years apart from the left knee which has a chipped bone. I’ll have the operation, then begin my rehabilitation and take it from there. 

“I’ve no thoughts of packing it in and am desperate to be playing.”

A return to first team action before the end of the season was hinted at in January, with Campbell again maintaining that he was physically in the best shape of his career… apart from the knee. He was one of three players invited back to pre-season to ‘prove his fitness’ but strangely didn’t feature in Ayr’s trip to Leigh to face Romanian opposition (it was suggested that Campbell was instead in Florida). The only game time Campbell had pre-season was during two low key friendlies at Cumnock (where he played 35 minutes as a second-half substitute) and Kilwinning. Mark Roberts was quoted as saying:

“It has been a long road back for Martyn but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel now”.

That light appears now to have dimmed. Which is an enormous shame as, alongside Alan Lithgow, Ayr United had found a no nonsense centre-back partnership which was shaping up to be one of their best for a long time. While perhaps not the most mobile, the side strolled to wins against Queen’s Park and Forfar with the pair in-situ – conceding only a penalty at Hampden when the ball came off Gordon Pope’s arm. In that game, one particular moment in the second-half where he made a timely intervention to prevent the Spiders going 2-0 up hinted Campbell was back to his best.

Alas, it seems not to be the case. In the wake of the Partick Thistle match Roberts suggested that it was natural Campbell would pick up ‘wee niggles’ after being out for a year but admitted he could no longer rely on the man they call ‘Bobo’. “We’ll get big Bobo fit sometime in his career.” Roberts said, not without a degree of optimism.

This may indeed just be a ‘wee niggle’ for Campbell, but Roberts must now learn the lessons of previous campaigns and bring in a reliable defender to partner Lithgow. The manager failed to address this problem last season, instead moving Austin McCann into centre-back and signing Marc Twaddle. It was an unmitigated disaster. Two central-defenders were eventually signed in January, Chris Smith and Neil McGregor but neither lived up to their reputation. Anyway, it was arguably too late to salvage a dismal season.

The impacts of Campbell’s fragility are not only felt over the course of a season, but losing Campbell early on in games has been a regular hindrance. In almost 10% of the matches Campbell has started for Ayr he has been substituted before the second-half has kicked off. This invariably has a detrimental impact on the side, evidenced as recently as Saturday when his injury led to Gordon Pope moving in from left-back, Michael Donald dropping from left-midfield to left-back and Alan Forrest coming on at left-midfield. Without Campbell – or a direct replacement – Airdrie were able to equalise and for the remainder of the first-half United looked uncertain in a match they had been dominating. Regardless of whether Roberts is going to put his faith in 17 year old John McArthur (who has performed reasonably well when called upon but wasn’t selected even for the bench on Saturday), a new centre-back is a necessity.

Bobo looked to be back to his best vs. Queen's Park

Many would have thanked Campbell for his efforts (and not to mention his gesture to go unpaid) at the end of last season and moved on and there is a danger that this recent injury episode serves to prove them right. Unfortunately, it is impossible to assess Campbell without reference to his injury record and reliability. Next season would be Martyn Campbell’s 10th at Somerset Park, a long-service record few players achieve in the modern game. It would be great if he could come through this season – and a rigorous pre-season – to earn another contract. There is no doubt Campbell is a good defender, solid in the tackle, strong in the air, experienced...

...when fit.

Martyn Campbell's Ayr United career stats:

	Starts	Subs	Total apps.	Off	Off before HT	Mins.
2005/06	20	3	23	3	1	1809
2006/07	18	3	21	5	1	1542
2007/08	12		12	3	1	974
2008/09	37		37	8	5	2931
2009/10	27	1	28	5	2	2224
2010/11	40		40	5	2	3444
2011/12	12	3	15	3	2	1020
2012/13	3		3	2	1	190
2013/14	5		5	3	2	314
	174	10	184	37	17	14448

Mo' Money, Mo' Problems?

This blog’s last entry – some six months ago* – was written before Ayr United, under new manager Mark Roberts, had played a competitive fixture. While it was cognisant of the dangers of reading too much into pre-season matches, it reflected on a series of results and performances (including a comprehensive win over Motherwell a and credible draw with Bolton Wanderers) which gave cause for an upgrade in the usual pre-season optimism. Some bookmakers even saw fit to install United as the title favourites. 

Roberts had his new look squad playing possession football, passing the ball short and at speed and his new recruits appeared a perfect fit for the player-manager’s vision, each comfortable in possession.  While some concerns remained around the defence; particularly goalkeeper Ally Brown; a lack of width in midfield (although this was countered by the attacking play of Ayr’s full backs); and squad depth, the attractive and attacking football had a feel good factor envelop Somerset Park.

This was to quickly dissipate. 

A humiliating 3-1 defeat away to East Stirlingshire on the opening day of the season was countered by a tantalising demonstration of the way it was supposed to work.  Clyde were routed 6-1 but, after conceding a last minute equaliser to Stenhousemuir at Somerset Park, Ayr went on to lose four of their first five league matches.  A 2-0 reverse at Stair Park saw the Roberts and his players return to the sight of Somerset Park festooned with a banner giving a blunt assessment of their efforts.



Fans showed their displeasure after just four league games

Sixteen points from the next 21 available served to turn down the heat on Roberts but performances failed to convince: two of Ayr’s five wins in that run of results – against bottom sides Albion Rovers and Stranraer required last minute penalties.  Even a 3-0 win over Brechin City, achieved with ten men, could be downplayed in hindsight by the paucity of the opposition.  Ayr, for all but the briefest of glimpses, struggled to recreate the football demonstrated in pre-season.  

The season’s nadir (just shading the defeat at Stranraer) came at Cliftonhill on Boxing Day.  In themselves, the surroundings served as a sobering reality check but nothing compared to the performance on the field.  A lethargic, hapless, rabble took to the pitch in white shirts that day, seemingly without a game plan to break down a very limited side and at full time Roberts became embroiled in a heated exchange with a supporter.  Ayr were meant to have turned the corner but the 2-0 defeat represented a fourth consecutive loss and, just three points from the foot of the table, Mark Roberts was back to square one, his position under intense scrutiny.  There has been no significant improvement in results since then, either, with just one win and three draws from six games.

The reason for Ayr United's position does not require over analysis: defensively they have been very poor, as discussed in more detail in mid-September. Because of injury (rather inevitably to Martyn Campbell and John Robertson), departures (Tiffoney) and arrivals (McAusland and Twaddle) and Roberts' attempts to find the right balance, Ayr's defence at the start of the season was in a near constant state of flux. Unfortunatly, this did not resolve itself when a more regular back-four of McAusland, Brownlie, McCann and Twaddle was deployed.

The defeat – and aftermath – to Albion Rovers did seem to create the crisis situation Ayr’s position deserved.  The manager took the unprecedented step of calling for supporters to rally round.  That interview mentioned the number of young players featuring for Ayr this season. Indeed against Rovers six players under the age of 20 were on the field together for the majority of the game, but in truth it has been the more senior players, brought to the club by Roberts (and mostly former teammates), who have disappointed this season.  United's best and most consistent performer has been 18 year old Robbie Crawford, without question.

Roberts also warned fans that there would be no quick fix. "We’re not one of those clubs that can throw £500 at a new player... I do not want to moan about budgets though".  However, one month on and throwing money at new players was exactly what Roberts was able to do.  A £7500 sponsorship from the Club's 'development partner' has been, quite incredibly, been usurped by an additional £20000, and rising, thanks to the fundraising efforts of Somerset Boab (including sizeable donations from Chairman Lachlan Cameron and sponsors Bodog). 

Unquestionably the money, to be used exclusively to boost playing budget, is a huge fillip to Mark Roberts and very welcome.  However, a note of caution. With the cash windfall comes a significant pressure – and the undermining of a huge excuse for Mark Roberts.  Ayr United’s results simply must improve in the remaining three months of the season.  If they do not, Roberts has very few places left to hide when it comes to pointing the finger of blame.  Any attempt to plead poverty (already a questionable line of argument when compared to Ayr's Second Division rivals) will simply not stand up to scrutiny.  With a contract in place for next season, Roberts' position is relatively secure but he will do little to enhance his reputation, or convince the doubters, if Ayr cannot finish the season strongly.

Adding to the pressure upon Roberts is that signing players in January, especially those with experience as required at Somerset Park, is not easy.  The quality of the three players signed – Neil McGregor and Chris Smith, out of favour at Dundee and Falkirk respectively, on loan and striker Liam Buchanan, who has returned from Ireland’s summer season – is therefore pleasing.  In particular, McGregor and returning hero Smith are both the dominant centre-half type the side has been missing since as far back as August, when Martyn Campbell again broke down.  Roberts was well aware of this deficiency, but was clearly unable to address it.  Various combinations of McCann, Robertson, Brownlie and McAusland have all failed to convince.

There has been some improvement in recent weeks, arriving from a change in formation. Earlier in the season Roberts played 433 and 4312, largely due to the lack of natural wide players at his disposal (Micheal McGowan could have made a real difference this season, alas his signing appears to have been folly. McGowan managed only 237 minutes before succumbing to the knee injury he seemingly hadn't recovered from). The signature of Micheal Donald, a natural left sided midfielder, has allowed Roberts to play a more traditional 442 in which the players look more comfortable and the side more balanced.  Donald, whose last club was Maybole Juniors, seems an unlikely kingpin but impresses with every game.

The big question is what are Ayr’s expectations now?  The assumed level of expenditure demands that simply avoiding relegation will not be good enough (not that it ever was).  And hence aspirations of a promotion play-off spot are raised.  With 15 league games to play, the Honest Men, in eighth, are nine points off 3rd position. The matter is further complicated by the potential value of two games versus Rangers in the Second Division next season and the, yet unclear, implications of league reconstruction. Regardless, Mark Roberts needs to quickly start winning games. Whether this enables a genuine tilt at promition is not of primary concern. 

McGregor, Smith and Buchanan showed glimpes of their value at Alloa on Saturday, but again Ayr threw away a two goal advantage, managing only a draw. This, more than anything, has been the side's bête noire this season - 23 points have been dropped for a winning position.  Mark Roberts' managerial career is dependant on seeing some tangible return on the money, a large proportion of it from the pockets of supporters, at his disposal. If not, that money will fuel the fires that say he is not the right man for the job.

* I hadn't completely given up writing about football, contributing periodicially to the excellent Tell Him He’s Pelé site - the place for thought and insight on the Scottish Football League. Take a look if you haven’t done so already. 

Five things learnt from pre-season

Pre-season. Every year I resolve not to bother. Somerset Park can seem a long way and £10 can seem a lot of money to see a kick about. The resolve never lasts, however, and the pre-season optimism and intrigue over new players takes over. Managers will tell you that pre-season games are not about results and all about match fitness but new gaffer Mark Roberts was also keen to use the series of five games to work on the team’s shape and style of play, which has already seen a radical overhaul.

It can be dangerous to read too much into pre-season but the Honest Men can be reasonably pleased with their endeavours, drawing one-each with Queen’s Park, a full strength Bolton Wanderers side and Irish hatchetmen Glentoran. A thumping 4-0 win over Champions League-bound Motherwell had heads turning while a 4-1 defeat versus Partick Thistle reflected the number of youngsters and trialists on show, with Roberts resting most of his main men.

Notwithstanding (well, ignoring) the main caveats: what did we learn from United’s pre-season?:

Starting XI

Unlike pre-seasons of the recent past, United have fielded a fairly settled line-up and used only a limited number of trialists, with the exception of the Partick Thistle game. Goalkeeper Ally Brown and the Jonathan Tiffoney were the only players not involved in the opening fixture at Lesser Hampden. Former Stenhousemuir goalkeeper Brown featured as a second-half substitute in Ayr’s second game against Motherwell and has kept the No. 1 jersey since (and subsequently signed) while Tiffoney returned to action in the penultimate game versus Bolton.

This continuity of selection should stand the side in good stead when the action starts for real on Saturday. Barring injury the side to face East Stirlingshire is likely to line-up:

Brown

Tiffoney   J. Robertson   Brownlie  McCann

Merenghi   Sinclair   McStay   Shankland

R. Robertson   Moffat

Otherwise, Martyn Campbell has the biggest claim to be involved in place of Brownlie but Ochilview’s artificial surface may be the deciding factor in Marko’s decision. Also, there is some confusion regarding Tiffoney’s future. Dundee, apparently, remain interested but unwilling to pay a fee for the 20 year-old. It may be that John Robertson plays at right-back with Campbell and Brownlie pairing up in the centre.

Squad

Beyond the starting eleven, pre-season has shown Ayr’s squad to be fairly limited in numbers. Add Martyn Campbell and the manager himself to the eleven listed above and that’s it in terms of ‘senior’ squad members. Roddy Paterson and Robbie Crawford head the list of U19s that can be expected to be involved, while defender Alan Murdoch has also featured.

Of the trialists used but not signed, David Winters, Paul Harkins and Grant Mosson were given limited game time and mostly failed to impress. Unfortunately for Micheal McGowan, and for Ayr, his appearance as a trialist lasted only 5 minutes before he succumbed to a reoccurrence of the knee injury picked up at the end of last season. McGowan has claimed it not to be serious – and he scored in a ‘Reserve’ game against Cumnock on Wednesday night – but Mark Roberts cannot afford to offer the winger a deal until he’s certain he’s fully fit.

Congolese-born forward Joel Kasubandi remains an option but injury prevented him taking part in the final pre-season game. Somewhat of a wildcard, the speedy19 year-old and could be utilised on the left or up-front thus providing cover for Moffat and Shankland but this would seem to knock Roddy Paterson down the pecking order. Roberts will have to be sure Kasubandi will: a) fit into his vision for the side and b) provides something he doesn’t already posses amongst the U19 squad before gambling on the player released by Morton.

The financial uncertainly following the ongoing fallout from the Rangers saga may have lead to the re-evaluation of Roberts’ budget or Marko could be playing the waiting game to see who he can pick up in August and September but it seems certain that some reinforcements will be required.

Style

It has been clear from the off that Roberts wants his side to play a different way than under Brian Reid. This is also reflected in the players who he has brought to the club. Reid favoured a fairly defensive back-four where the full-backs we’re encouraged to get forward and in midfield the emphasis was primarily on carrying the ball forward, with the likes of McGowan, Trouten, Geggan and the out-of-position Moffat preferring to run with the ball rather than pass it.

The new look Honest Men have instead looked, first and foremost, to pass the ball, short and at speed. New midfielders David Sinclair, Ryan McStay and Antony Merenghi all look comfortable with the ball at feet with Sinclair adopting the ‘quarterback’ role of taking the ball deep from the defence and distributing it forward. With a relatively narrow midfield – there are no natural wingers – the full-backs have been encouraged to push forward, with the nominal left and right midfielders providing cover. This was shown to good effect with Tiffoney’s role in the equaliser against Bolton, where, receiving the ball from Roberts he burst past the Bolton full-back and defender to cross the ball to Roberts around the penalty spot.

Up front, Roberts has returned Micheal Moffat to his rightful position and put his faith in Ross Robertson. Brian Reid saw Robertson as a centre-back, used him there and in midfield but Marko has seen enough to convince him the 21 year-old can lead the attack. While it may take time for ‘Rossco’ to adjust to the role, what he lacks in touch he more than makes up for in his ability to occupy defences with his strength and aerial prowess. Too often in recent seasons opposition defenders have been given an easy time of it by Ayr’s attack and hopefully Robertson can address this. Robertson provides the ‘big man up front’ option missing from Ayr teams for a long time but I don’t expect Marko will be keen to see long balls being played from back to front. As a target man, however, there are signs that Robertson could prove a useful foil for a hopefully rejuvenated Moffat.

Going from ‘up against it’ in the First Division to among the title favourites in the Second was always going to necessitate a switch in approach that would see Ayr more comfortable on the front foot. Under Reid, last time out in the Second Division, United never looked to be comfortable favourites and rarely dominated games. Hopefully playing a more possession oriented game will prove not only more effective but also more attractive on the eye. The key to turning possession in to goals will be using Moffat’s pace to run at defenders and to exploit space behind opposition defences.

Shankland

 

The highlight of pre-season has been the emergence of Mark Shankland. Roberts has talked up the Mauchline kid almost since the day he took over and the youngster – who only turned 17 two weeks ago – is sure to play a big part this season on the evidence of pre-season.

 

Used primarily on the left of midfield, Shankland also played behind a front two (Moffat and Roberts) in the Queen’s Park game and Roberts has stated he can play anywhere across midfield or up-front. Shankland possesses fantastic technique and composure on the ball. His weight of pass is exquisite and he isn’t afraid to take on his man or to take a shot.

 

Why we didn’t see more of Shankland under Reid remains a mystery but this could now be his time to shine.

 

Suspect

 

(OK, I was struggling for a fifth ‘S’…) The biggest cause for concern on the park has been the number of free headers given up at corners and free-kicks. This very specific thing has been a long-running Achilles heal of United. There has been much debate surrounding Campbell at the start of what will be his seventh season at Somerset Park. Campbell’s strengths and weaknesses are fairly plain to see. He isn’t going to look comfortable with the goalkeeper rolling the ball out to him short, but at the same time up against a burly target man, few get the better of the now 31-year old defender as evidenced by his performances against Motherwell’s Michael Higdon and England International Kevin Davies. Then there are the inevitable question marks over his fitness. ‘Bobo’ managed only 15 appearances last season and Ayr had a fairly rotten record when he did start.

 

The jury is still out on keeper Ally Brown also. He doesn’t come with glowing recommendations from supporters of previous clubs and in pre-season has looked unsure when going for balls played into the box. If the defence can prove itself to be be solid and reliable then the side should have an excellent platform for playing the type of game Roberts wants.

 

To finish on a negative would be entirely inconsistent with the overall feeling around club about the new season. Fairly natural at the start of any season you could say, but in Mark Roberts we have a manger committed to entertaining the supporters with attacking and attractive football and that is to be welcomed. As usual, I’m sure it will be a rollercoaster season.

Progression not punishment most important as Scottish football faces up to newco Rangers

After four months in administration, the reformation of Rangers FC is now a certainty following Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs rejection of a company voluntary arrangement aimed at saving the 140 year-old club. The corporate entity which is The Rangers Football Club plc will be liquidated and new company created.  

Scottish football is left with a monumental decision to make and with the fixture list to be published on Monday and the SPL season due to kick-off on the 4^th August, the time for delay, avoidance and excuses for reconvening at a later date is over. A decision must be made now - what fate the newco Rangers?

There is the understandable clamour for Rangers to be punished beyond those self-inflicted consequences of their mismanagement. It is unpalatable for most that ‘new’ Rangers could continue, free from the burden of debt and sporting sanction, to compete at the top of the SPL. The most obvious sentence appears to be ‘relegation’ to the Third Division.  More accurately this would involve the SPL refusing to transfer Rangers’ share to the newco and its subsequent application and election to the SFL. This would satisfy the appetite for ‘sporting justice’ for the Ibrox club’s substantial misdemeanours, notwithstanding the claims of other clubs, such as Cove Rangers and Spartans, who may also wish election to the SFL.

On the other hand, there is the uncertainty – the fear within Boardrooms across the SPL – over what the future holds without Rangers. Specifically, how it will it affect the bottom line. There seems to be nervousness amongst SPL clubs, including Celtic despite previous claims, that they would be unable to survive without the contribution made by Rangers to collective television and sponsorship revenues and individual gate receipts. 

It is easy to misconstrue the opinions expressed online, on forums such as Pie & Bovril, as representing the majority of football fans but it is clear that supporters of all clubs (perhaps even including Rangers) are against allowing newco Rangers to continue in the SPL.  Surveys show opposition running as high as 95%, with talk of boycotts should Rangers be allowed to continue in the SPL.  Now the failure of the CVA has been confirmed, chairmen are left with a decision they did not want to make and run the risk of alienating (possibly even losing) their supporters.

The consequences of not punishing Rangers are often played out, less so the consequences of their punishment.  Rangers starting again in the SFL may be the right punishment for Rangers, but is it the right punishment for Scottish football and for clubs like Peterhead, Stranraer and Queen’s Park?

You cannot escape the fact that the popularity of Rangers (and Celtic) – not only in Scotland but internationally – far exceeds that any other club in Scotland. It is fair to assume that any Phoenix Rangers club would have the resources to return to the SPL in three seasons. Competition within SFL 3, 2 and 1 would be temporarily suspended as the newco freak show undertook a three-season procession back to the SPL.  This cannot be healthy.  We can talk about the sporting integrity of allowing Rangers to continue in the SPL but where is the integrity in a competition only one side can realistically win? If Rangers do kick-off in the Third Division on August 11^th, through no fault of their own, Peterhead, Stranaer etc. are effectively left to scrap it out for a promotion play-off place.

Perhaps the best solution for the game in Scotland is therefore Rangers are suspended from Scottish football next season. This way the club are punished in a manner that is appropriate (and arguably more severe than relegation to the Third Division); the integrity of the SFL is not compromised and it can remain competitive; season 2012/13 can kick-off in August free from the uncertainty of the Rangers situation which seems unlikely to resolved anytime soon and, most importantly, instead of rushing to a short-term fix, significant reform within the game can be considered, agreed and timetabled over the course of next season.

Rather than making an example of Rangers, it is more important that a solution preventing clubs simply reforming as new corporate entities to avoid financial obligations is found through the introduction of stronger regulation. The argument that SFL clubs would benefit financially as newco Rangers worked their inevitable way back to the top? Again, changes to Scottish football that would see a more equitable distribution of revenues would serve the game much better in the long run. If Rangers are simply relegated to the Third Division with no changes to the way Scottish football is regulated and governed it will be travesty. A huge, once in a generation, opportunity missed.

One of Scottish football’s biggest failings throughout this saga has been an entirely ineffective rule book. The fate of newco Rangers should be legislated for, laid out in the statutes in black and white so there could be no uncertainly. Fail to comply with x by y date and z will happen (e.g. demonstrate by the end of May the club’s finances are sound or face demotion). Instead, the SPL and SFA are making it up as they go along, opening themselves up to claims and counter-claims of bias. Simply it is an unedifying disaster.

If Scottish football learns one thing from this debacle it must be that it has to change.  This should not be lost among the fearvount clamber to punish Rangers.

Edited to add: After sharing the main points of this blog post on twitter and few people have asked how suspending Rangers for a season would work in practice. I would consider inviting applications to join the Third Division, with one side joining next season for a minimum of three seasons and another joining the following season - alongside Rangers - for a minimum of two seasons, thus maintaining an even number of teams within the league set-up. Within this three year period I'd like to see the bottom of the Third Division opened up, allowing progressive clubs outside the current league structure to join.

As for the fate of Rangers following their one year suspension, for the reasons stated above, I would be comfortable with them rejoining the top division provided: a) they are able to demonstrate in good time they are vintage position to do so; and b) no further wrongdoing is exposed, bearing in mind the 'Big Tax case' and the SFA's investigation into dual contracts.

"We were so near and yet so far"

Analysing Brian Reid’s tenure at Somerset Park

It was Sheryl Crow who once sang “a change would do you good” while Cat Stevens countered “It's not time to make a change. Just relax, take it easy”.  I can only imagine that the singer-songwriter, multi-instrumentalist and prominent convert to Islam hadn’t accounted for the conclusion of Brian Reid’s 4 years and 205 days in charge at Somerset Park.

Cat Stevens: wrong on this occasion

After a season that was at times odd-defying, claiming no fewer than three SPL scalps on the way to three quarter-finals and a semi-final at the National Stadium, Ayr United were relegated via the play-offs in heartbreaking fashion at Somerset Park by old adversaries Airdrie. In the context of a poor semi-final, first-leg performance at the Excelsior Stadium, where Ayr were lucky to escape with a goalless draw, from the ominous moment 17 year-old Jackson Longridge was sent off just 17 minutes into the second-leg a dark cloud descended over the old ground and a second relegation in three years - and the end of Reid's spell in charge - seemed inevitable.  The news that Ayr United and Reid, at that point the fourth longest serving manager in the country, were to part company came three days later.

The agreement not to renew Reid’s contract was mutual, with both the club and manager looking to take a new direction.  Most fans also agreed his time was up. In a rare insight to the intentions of Chairman Lachlan Cameron, a statement on the official website announced the club’s wishes to place a greater emphasis on the ‘youth pathway to the first team’ and that in view of the ‘changing landscape in Scottish football’ a change had to happen. For Brian Reid’s part, it was time for a fresh challenge.  Seaking to the Ayrshire Post on his departure, Reid said "even if we had stayed up in the First Division, the decision would probably have been the same".  To what degree the budget cuts implicit in the Board’s new direction influenced his decision is open to speculation but it has been suggested he was unhappy.

Farewell Brian.

Assessing Brian Reid's spell in charge at Somerset Park is a difficult task. On paper, two promotions, coupled with relative cup success is a noteworthy achievement for someone who started as a 37 year-old rookie with little coaching experience at a club like Ayr United. But four league campaigns also have to be considered in relative terms and alongside the reasonableness of expectation.  Here, the part-time dynamic is perhaps crucial. While I have previously decried Reid for constantlybeating the part-time drum as an excuse, there can be no doubt that United’s part-time status had a bearing on what Reid has achieved and what he could have been expected to achieve. But it doesn’t tell the full story.

Reid inherited an apparently unhappy dressing room in October 2007 – just 10 league games into the season – after Neil Watt had attempted to recreate his double promotion-winning Stranraer side of 2003/04 and 04/05 but found his methods to be unwelcome. Reid moved quickly to shake up the squad: most of the ‘Stranraer six’ were released (Higgins, Hamilton, Corr, Swift), Micheal Moore was ushered to the sidelines and in came a number short-term loan signings, including Dean Keenan and Willie Easton. Ayr finished the season in 7^th place, the same position they were when Watt resigned.

The players brought to the club during Brian Reid’s first six months in charge – and first close season – demonstrated perhaps Reid’s greatest strength: player recruitment.  Reid proved to be adept at squad building and bringing better players to the club.  He probably leaves in credit when the good signings are balanced against the bad.  The team built – virtually from scratch – to tackle the Second Division in summer 2008, winning promotion via the play-offs best demonstrates this. Stephen Grindlay was an ever present between the posts and was, and still is, a solid goalkeeper; Dempsie, Walker, Campbell and McGowan were a solid back-four.  In midfield, Chris Aitken joined Ryan Stevenson (already at the club) and Keenan and Easton in making over 30 appearances and upfront the scoring prowess of Bryan Prunty and Alex Williams was supplemented by David Gormely and, from January, Mark Roberts.  While, for example, Chris Aitken had his (vocal) detractors, it’s hard to argue that any of the mainstays of that squad recruited by Reid were bad signings. 

Chris Aitken: unpopular but a good signing?

Ayr’s relegation the following season would call into question these credentials. United kicked off their Centenary season with the manager putting faith in the majority of the squad that had won promotion via the play-offs. Defenders Alan Dempsie and Scott Walker were the only regular starters from the previous season released, with Billy Gibson and Andrew Aitken coming in as replacements along with Craig Samson to provide competition to Grindlay.  The less said about David O’Brien’s Ayr United career the better.

The side did not start the season well.  Ayr’s 1-0 at home to Dunfermline at the start of December was just their second of the season and meant they were already six points adrift of 8^th position but two ahead of bottom placed Airdrie.  To Reid’s credit, he had already identified that reinforcements were required and throughout the following months.  Ryan McGowan, Danny Lafferty, Chris Mitchell, Rocky Visconte and Stephen Reynolds and Danny McKay all came in on loan.  Veterans Junior Mendes and Steve Bowey renewed acquaintances with former team-mate Reid and Tam McManus returned from Ireland with the promise of goals.

But it wasn’t enough. Four wins and no defeats in eight games between mid-February and mid-March offered hope.  Ayr jumped out of the relegation places for five weeks and with nine games left to play were on the same points as Morton with a game in hand, and nine ahead of Airdrie – but Ayr finished the season disastrously.  Eight defeats interrupted by a solitary victory at Firhill meant that United finished 10^th, two points behind Airdrie in the play-off position and six behind Morton in, who defeated Ayr in the final game of the season. Three weeks previous, Airdrie United had travelled down to Somerset Park on a Wednesday and left with crushing 4-1 victory which had narrowed the gap to just three points at the foot of the table. It was perhaps the worst performance of Reid’s spell in charge, even worse than the following Saturday when Inverness sealed the title with a 7-0 rout.

This spectacular collapse is a major black mark on Reid’s report card. Failure to beat Raith Rovers to the title the previous season was a disappointment softened by play-off success. Finishing below Airdrie United – the First Division’s only other part-time side – in the manner in which Ayr did was a major failure.

Following relegation Reid was given the opportunity to rebuild once more.  A previous blog post chronicles that season from the perspective of Ayr’s main rivals that season: Livingston.  Two seasons previously, Ayr and Raith competed mainly as equals.  This time round the West Lothian club had an advantage as the Division’s only full-time side. The Honest Men did have the opportunity at the start of February to close the gap between the sides to one point (United having a game in hand) but the Lions won 3-0 and went on to win the title by 23 points.

Ayr were partly undone by a combination of bad weather – just two league games were played between the end of October and start of January – and a Scottish Cup run that saw them reach the quarter-final, defeating Hibs in a replay at Somerset Park on the way. Of the resulting rescheduled fixtures played mid-week, Ayr won just one of six.  Reid’s side fell well short of the standards set in his first full season in charge – earning 15 fewer points, losing over twice as many games – but again the season was redeemed by triumph in the play-offs.  While few United fans present will forget the scenes of jubilation at Glebe Park at full-time, until Mark Roberts grabbed an equaliser with 13 minutes to go it was beginning to look like a lost cause. Such are the fine margins that define Reid’s managerial reign.

In assembling a squad for a second attempt at the First Division survival, Brian Reid again had to go back to the drawing-board. Alan Martin, the former Scotland U21 keeper brought in as Reid quickly realised first choice David Crawford wasn’t up to the job, and central midfield partnership of Ryan McCann and Scott McLaughlin left for full-time football elsewhere. Kevin Cuthbert, Andy Geggan and Micheal McGowan proved to be adequate replacements, and experience was added in the shape of the returning John Robertson and Gareth Wardlaw.     

Reid’s biggest error this season, however, was not bringing another centre-back to the club. Ayr started the season with a back four of John Robertson, Campbell, Smith and Malone but injuries and suspensions meant they started just four league games – and finished just one.  Campbell endured (another) injury hit season, starting only seven league games. A straight replacement for Campbell would have negated the requirement for wholesale defensive changes: full-backs Robertson and Malone, Ross Robertson and even Andy Geggan all stepping in to partner Chris Smith, often weakening other area of the team. Mid-season, Liam Tomsett was an important capture on loan from Blackpool and was a definite upgrade on Alex Burke (perhaps Reid worst signing ever) and Jamie McKernon alongside Andy Geggan in centre midfield. Sean Higgins and Keigan Parker were added as a 4^th and 5^th striker - but no defender.  

Alex Burke: one to forget

The similarities between 2010 and 2012 are striking. With ten games to go, Ayr were in eight place and had been there for four weeks. This time round the gap over the side at the bottom (Queen of the South) was six points and two points ahead of Raith in 9^th. In both seasons Ayr’s 27^th game was away to Raith Rovers and United fans travelled to Kirkcaldy in big numbers. Hopes of First Division safety were raised and then dashed as United conceded last minute equalisers.  Like in 2010, this set back proved to be the catalyst for an end of season collapse. It was the start of three games in quick succession versus relegation rivals, Rovers, Morton and Queen of the South. Brian Reid’s men failed to win any of them: drawing at home to Morton and losing 2-1 away to Queen of the South. Ayr had blown the opportunity to almost secure their safety. Haunted by the spectre of throwing it away again, wins against Livingston and Dundee, thanks to two spectacular goals from Keigan Parker, weren’t enough to avoid the play-off position and Raith and Morton picked up the points required to stay ahead of the Honest Men.

While 9^th position was an improvement on last time in the First Division, particularly in a league where Ayr were the only part-time side, but any sense of achievement was soon to be diminished as Ayr crashed in the play-offs where yet another vital game – ironically again against Airdrie at Somerset Park – was lost. A United team under Brian Reid beaten by a side that was better organised and drilled and looked like they wanted it more.

This brief sojourn through Reid’s four full seasons in charge indicates a number of recurrences: losing vital games at important times of the season; poor end-of-season form and a huge turn over in players from one season to the next, even during seasons. 

The turnover of players partly reflects the state of Scottish football today and Ayr United’s standing – a part-time team somewhere between the First and Second Division. One year deals are the norm and players will inevitably be looking to for full-time contracts. Brian Reid was able to capitalise on the new economics in the game, recruiting decent players such as Eddie Malone, Ryan McCann and Chris Smith who in recent years would have commanded full time football. The criticism can be levelled at Reid, however, that he was always looking to improve his squad through new players rather than on the training ground.  It seemed that the solution (to not scoring goals, particularly) always lay with a new player and the excuses lay in an inability to find someone "better than we already had". 

On the park, a number of failings were evident and persistent.  While I think Brian Reid wanted his side to play 'the right way', they were often strangled by Reid's conservatism. Defensively, his first preference was for full-backs who were first and foremost solid. The likes of Alan Dempsie, Neil McGowan and even Eddie Malone (set-pieces aside) rarely offered anything in an attacking sense. The signature of Jim Lauchlan in Ayr's second promotion season to replace Jonathan Tiffoney typified this.  Forgetting the contribution in attack, defending balls crossed into the box, particularly in set-pieces was a constant short-coming of Reid's sides during his tenure.

Tactically, Reid was a fairly rigid 442 man. As mentioned above a defensive minded back-four left 6 players in attack with whom to grab the goals. But Ayr rarely seemed to click as an attacking force under Reid, other than in his first full season in charge when the team included Prunty, Williams, Gormley and Ryan Stevenson and netted 71 league goals. United's approach to goalscoring seemed ineffective. Often the side was criticised for over playing in attacking situations: 'walking the ball into the net'. While this is somewhat of an Arsenal inspired cliché, its true that last season Ayr heavily relied on set-pieces for goals, with Micheal McGowan responsible for around half Ayr's goals.

When not 442, Reid did go through spells playing 451, mostly in the First Division.  While was largely responsible for Ayr cup success and giant-killing acts in the cups,  it rarely transposed to league success. Instead, it effectively left United impotent, with little opportunity to win games. Reid argued that the system allowed for a 433 in attack, but this rarely materialised.  It was the cause of much frustration and failed to utilised the squad to the best effect (his used of Micheal Moffat on the left-hand side described as criminal by Mark Roberts). Also apparent was Reid's inability to alter his tactics during games to count opponents . All these thing pointed to a manager who could be reasonably described as tactically naive. This may be unfair, but Reid certainly didn't bring a sophistication to his approach. Much like his playing career it was very much 'safety first'. Or negative. 

Another failing of Reid was his reticence to use the talent coming through the club’s own Academy, particularly in favour of untried youngsters on loan. While no-one could argue with the value of some loan signings, for example Liam Tomsett and Ryan McGowan, many will struggle to recall the contribution made by the likes of Paul Willis and David Crawford.  This has been noted by the Board and was clearly a factor in their decision not to offer Reid a new contract.  Whether our Academy players are good enough is another debate – I guess we’re about to find out – but there have been glimpses and reports of great talents, none of whom have been given an opportunity.

Mark Shankland: the future?

In assessing the season just past, Brian Reid told the Ayrshire Post: “We had a small squad and the cup runs probably had an adverse affect on our ability to stay in the First Division.

 “If we had managed to stay up on the back of two good cup runs it would have gone down as one of the club’s best seasons.

“We were so near and yet so far.”

This can pretty much sum up his five years at the club.  So near and yet so far from the title in 2009. So near and yet so far from First Division survival in 2010. So near and yet so far from beating Kilmarnock in the biggest ever Ayrshire derby. So near and yet so far from staying in First Division in 2012. It was reasonable to expect Ayr to win the title in 2009, and to avoid relegation in 2010 and 2012, and they were in good positions to do so each season but, ultimately Brian Reid failed on each occasion. 

In the end, nearly wasn’t good enough. 

Preview: First Division Play-Offs

The lottery of the play-offs they call it and, after 36 games, the fate of one First Division and three Second Division sides now lies on two - or four - games.  For Ayr United, in this end-of-season contest for the third time in four years, the prize is First Division survival. For Arbroath, Dumbarton and Airdrie United its promotion alongside Cowdenbeath to Scotland's second tier.

Play-Off Champions: One year one United are looking for same again.

The bookies make Ayr United favourites but the 9th placed First Division side has not faired well in the play-offs, retaining their status just once in six years. Here is a run-down on the form, key men and play-off records of the contenders:


Ayr United

Season so far: Ayr United have upset the established order this season by finishing above full-time Queen of the South to give themselves the opportunity to make it successive seasons in the First Division for the first time since 2003. Coupled with three SPL scalps en-route to the League Cup semi-final and a Scottish Cup quarter-final, survival would represent a huge achievement for Brian Reid’s side but how will the favourites tag sit?

Form: United finished the season, as is becoming customary, with a number of defeats. Seven in nine games to be precise but wins away to Livingston and at home to Dundee were enough avoid an automatic return to the First Division with a game to spare, having done enough between January and the start of March to open up an advantage over Queen of the South.

Stats: Quite simply United have shipped too many goals this season. Despite eight clean sheets, more than Queen of the South, Hamilton and twice as many as Raith Rovers, 67 goals have been conceded,  3 or more goals on 12 occasions. Injuries (and suspensions) haven't helped and Brian Reid has been forced into using six different centre-back partnerships. Going into the play-offs, John Robertson and Martyn Campbell are injury doubts and, worryingly, Chris Smith has made two or three costly and uncharacteristic errors. 

In their favour, time-after-time, Brian Reid's man have shown tremendous character and a never-say-die attitude: Ayr have clawed back an impressive 17 points from a losing position this season.

Key Men: Former St. Johnstone and Blackpool striker Keigan Parker hasn't set the heather on fire since his return north but two goals of exquisite quality versus Dundee last weekend signalled that the now 29 year-old striker could play a big part in United’s survival hopes. Parker has play-off pedigree – in 2007 he scored Blackpool's second goal in their 2-0 win against Yeovil Town in the League One play-off final at Wembley. 

Keigan Parker: time to shine?

Alongside Parker, ‘keeper Kevin Cuthbert has picked up most of the Player of the Year awards this season and has made very few mistakes and many more terrific saves between the sticks, while the goals of Mark Roberts and Michael Moffat were instrumental in Ayr's success last season. Moffat warmed up with two goals against Falkirk on the final day of the season.

Play-off record: P8, W5, D3, L0, F19, A11 - The Honest Men haven't lost a game in the play-offs, earning promotion to the First Division in 2009 and 2011. Ayr have won all four of their away ties, including decisive second-leg games at Airdrie and Brechin.

Odds: 15/8

Airdrie
Season so far: Airdrie clinched fourth position and the final play-off spot on the last day of the season with their first goalless draw of the season at Champions Cowdenbeath while Stenhousemuir, with whom they were level on points going into game, crashed 2-1 at home to Forfar.  It was only in April that the Diamonds climbed into the top four as they finished strongly as others faltered.

Form: So often its the form side that is the the most dangerous going into the play-offs and that accolade is undoubtedly Airdrie United's. The Diamonds have lost just one game since 25th February, a run of 11 games that has earned 24 points.

Stats: One statistics stands out for Airdrie and its their disciplinary record. Jimmy Boyle's men have picked up 12 red and 77 yellow cards this season, the worst record in Scotland.  Ayr United travel to Lanarkshire on Wednesday night in the first-leg of the semi-final and will do well to prevent the hosts scoring.  Airdrie have found the net 43 times in 18 home games this season and have only failed to score at New Broomfield once.

Key Men: The Airdrie squad has a good mix of youth and experience. David Lilley and Paul Lovering - injuries permitting - will marshal the defence while big Derek Holmes will be a handful up-front but Airdrie's biggest danger man is likely to be Holmes strike partner, Ryan Donnelly. The highly rated 20 year-old is the Second Division's top goalscorer with 27 goals (non of which have come from the penalty spot).  Donnelly is described by preeminent SFL blogger Craig Telfer in an article for the two unfortunates blog as "a deft and instinctive finisher, [who] displays intelligent positioning and movement in and around the penalty area." and "strong on both feet and a potent threat in the air".  Donnelly has been less prolific since the turn of the year, with three goals in his last 12 appearances compared to 13 goals in the 12 games previous.

Ryan Donnelly: can he recapture his early season goalscoring form?

Play-off record: P14 W5 D3 L6 F22 A18 - Airdrie have a disastrous play-off record and hold the unwanted distinction of losing three consecutive First Division play-off finals. They were relegated from the First Division via the play-offs in 2007, lost to Clyde in the final the following year but benefited from the demise of Gretna to go up. In 2009, Livingston's demotion to the third Division saved the Diamonds again after play-off final defeat to Ayr United.  Their fourth play-off appearance in 2010 finally saw them relegated to the Second Division when Brechin City defeated them at the semi-final stage. 

Odds: 10/3

Arbroath
Season so far: Managed by former Ayr United midfielder Paul Sheerin, Arbroath unfurled their first Championship flag in their 133-year history at Gayfield on the opening day of this season and went on to hammer fellow Second Division new boys Albion Rovers 6-2. Despite losing their next game away to Stenhousemuir, that result was typical of an impressive start to the season for the Red Lichties which reaped 18 points from their first seven games and saw them find the net 23 times. Unfortunately for Sheerin and his side, Cowdenbeath also started the season well and before the first quarter of the season was out it was the Fife side who topped the table, with Arbroath second and it was to remain that way for the rest of the season.

Arbroath fans, including a man in Speedos, celebrate promotion

Form: Arbroath's form has tailed off at the end of the season, with only three wins in their last 11 games.  A 3-2 victory at Central Park at the start of April narrowed the gap to three points with four games to play but ultimately merely delayed Cowdenbeath's title celebrations - Arbroath took just a point from their next two games as the Blue Brazil took six. The following week, Sheerin described his side's defeat at home to Stenhousemuir as "the worst performance I've been involved in since I've been at the club"

Stats: The Red Lichties have averaged over two goals per game this season, netting 76 times in 36 games, eight more than Champions Cowdenbeath. At the other end, they've conceded too many goals (51) and kept only 6 clean sheets.

Key Men: Arbroath strength is in the midfield.  At the age of 37, player-manager Paul Sheerin can still pick a pass with one of the finest left foots to grace Scotland in recent years, as can former Motherwell, Hibs and Scotland (albeit under the Vogts era...) midfielder Brain Kerr and the diminutive 21 year-old Josh Falkingham, who would surely be playing at a higher level if he was a few inches taller. In front of that trio, neither Steven Doris and Gavin Swankie are out-and-out strikers but have an incredible 72 goals between them in the last two seasons.

Play-off record: P12, W3, D4, L5, F13, A13 - The Angus side have enjoyed both success and failure in four Second Division play-off campaigns. Defeated at the semi-final stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07 it was third time lucky the following season with aggregate victories over Cowdenbeath (after extra-time) and Stranraer earning promotion in 2008.

Two years later and it was back to the Third Division football as Arbroath were relegated via the play-offs, losing out 2-0 in the final to Angus rivals Forfar at Station Park after the first leg at Gayfield ended goalless.

Odds: 5/2

Dumbarton

Season so far: Dumbarton secured their highest finish in the league since 2004 – and a play-off spot – in their penultimate game of the regular season and will be looking to reach the second tier of Scottish football for the first time since 1996. The Sons can look towards a ten-game unbeaten run comprising 8 wins and 2 draws at the turn of the year which helped establish the side’s play-off credentials after what is fast becoming a trademark slow start to the season. The Sons ended the first round of nine fixtures in seventh position and were shipping an average of 2.55 goals per game but, despite a dismal March which brought only four points from 6 games (and saw 14 goals conceded), Dumbarton looked comfortable in third spot since mid-February.  

Form: Ended the season with three wins to finish six points clear of fourth placed Airdrie United.

Stats: Not only have Dumbarton been slow starters over the course of the season, Adamson's men have generally been slow starters in matches. Their first-half record is ranked 8th in the Second Division - they have been leading after 45 minutes on just eight occasions meaning they have required some pretty big second periods to earn their seventeen league wins.

Key Men: Former Ayr United duo Bryan Prunty and Scott Agnew are Dumbarton’s top goalscorers this season with 14 and 12 goals respectively. A striker that thrives on confidence, Prunty scored 18 goals in 2008/09 and his goalscoring seems to come in bursts: seven in 10 games during Dumbarton's purple patch but only one in nine since the start of March. Agnew was more of a peripheral figure during his time at Somerset Park but regular football, at Stranraer and then Dumbarton this season, has seen the playmaker become an integral player more than capable of getting his name on the scoresheet. The Sons will be a big danger at set-pieces with his dead ball prowess.  And what about former Kilmarnock striker Craig Dargo? He scored a hat-trick on the final day of the season and would surely love to exorcise the demons of that penalty miss at the Somerset Road in 2001.

Craig Dargo. Surely not?

Play-off record: This will be Dumbarton’s first foray into the end-of-season play-offs.

Odds: 3/1

Welcome the new Hibs. Same as the old Hibs?

The ball was fired into the box by Andy Rodgers. It looped into the air and Mark Roberts controlled it with his left foot. Shifted on to his right, then his left. His right again. And then again on to his left before sending a curling shot along the ground past Graeme Smith. Typical Marko. 417 days later Hibs return to Somerset Park desperately looking to avoid a repeat. This time they'll meet a stronger Ayr United side, a Division higher and on a rich vein of form having won three games in fourteen days to lift themselves of the foot of the First Division. But what can we expect from a new look Hibs side and are they set to go the same way as Inverness, city-rivals Hearts and St. Mirren this season? 

Pat Fenlon has undertaken a radical overhaul of the Hibs squad since replacing Colin Calderwood at the end of November, recruiting no fewer than eight new players. Indeed, the Hibs side that lines-up at Somerset Park tomorrow will bare no resemblance to the one that crashed out of the competition to the Honest Men last season, with all but two of the starting line-up that night having departed Easter Road.

Fenlon’s new recruits represent a mixed bag of future prospects, former prospects and unknown foreign quantities. A leaky defence has been replenished with 20-year old full backs Matt Doherty and George Francomb on loan from Wolves and Norwich respectively and James McPake, borrowed from Coventry City until the end of the season. Given the captain’s armband in the continued absence of Ian Murray, McPake started his career at Livingston alongside the likes of Robert Snodgrass and Graeme Dorrans but the 27 year old has failed to make the same impact south of the border as his Almondvale alumni, making 39 appearances in two-and-a-half season for the Midlands club. Also added to the equation is the ‘Gambian Roberto Carlos’, Pa Saikou Kujabi.

The Hibs defence, however, remains suspect, looking non-too clever in conceding four against Motherwell and five against Celtic in recent weeks. Goalkeeper Graham Stack came in for particular criticism for his display against a Celtic side admittedly at the top of their game.

In midfield, Hibs have added Honduran internationalist Jorge Claros, who was shot in the head last year during an attempted carjacking. Nicknamed ‘The Pitbull’, Claros and the formidable presence of Isaiah Osbourne will most likely carry out the graft for the Hibees in the middle of the park, although Claros is much more than a destroyer and can pick out a pass and is comfortable on the ball. Fenlon’s more attacking options in midfield include home-grown talents David Wotherspoon and Louis Stevenson and another player on-loan from the English Premiership, Tom Soares. Opening his Hibs account with two goals versus Kilmarnock at Rugby Park a fortnight ago, Soares was a promising youngster coming through the ranks with Crystal Palace and earned four England U21 caps. In 2008 he moved to newly-promoted Stoke City in a £1.25 million deal but has made only seven Premier League appearances. Ominously for Hibs, loan spells at Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday have ended with both sides being relegated.

Hibs under Colin Calderwood were heavily reliant on Garry O’Connor for goals, with the former Scotland interationalist netting seven of the Leith side’s first 11 league goals. Since October however, the goals have dried up for O’Connor as a persistent ankle injury has taken its toll. Leigh Griffiths – when not gesticulating at his own supporters – has weighed in with seven but Hibs haven’t been prolific, scoring 15 goals in 14 league games under Fenlon and have failed to find the net in five of their last seven games.

If O’Connor is not deemed fit enough to start on Saturday, yet another on-loan player Roy O’Donovan is likely to get the nod. Signed by Roy Keane in 2007 from Cork City – where he had an impressive strike-rate of 31 goals in 76 games – he spent much of his Sunderland career out on loan, including at Dundee United in 2008 before signing for Coventry in June 2010. A more recent recruit to from the League or Ireland Eion Doyle is also an option, and has already netted two Scottish Cup goals this season against Cowdenbeath and the winner against Kilmarnock in the last round.

Building virtually a new team in a matter of months was never going to be easy but any improvement in Hibs’ fortunes under Fenlon hasn’t manifest itself in results. While Colin Calderwood blundered his way to 14 points from 15 games at the start of the season, Fenlon has added just nine from his 14 games. Hibs now sit in 11th in the SPL, two points ahead of Dunfermline – that’s no bigger an advantage than when Fenlon took over Hibs, then placed 9th. Additional victories have come in the Scottish Cup: at Cowdenbeath – where they conceded after just 30 seconds but went on to win 3-2 – and 1-0 at home to Kilmarnock but Fenlon shouldn’t take too much heart from a job professionally done at Central Park as he faces another ‘tricky tie’.

Brian Reid’s approach to the game will be intriguing. Will he stick with the same side and formation that has served him so well over the past thirteen days? Or will he revert to the tried and tested 451 approach that has seen Ayr knock out three SPL sides this season and run a fourth very close? It seems likely that it will be same again for United for two key reasons. Firstly: Reid's midfield options are limited. Alan Trouten is struggling with both hamstrings and is unlikely to be fit, Jamie McKernon and Ross Robertson are no-more than bit part players and lack the experience or quality you feel to come into a game like this. Secondly: it would mean breaking up the Parker-Roberts partnership upfront. Parker could do a job upfront on his own and is a willing runner now up to full speed but his pairing with Roberts looks to be mutually beneficial, making the most of the class both players posses.

So, Ayr’s approach to the game is likely to be far more positive than in recent encounters with SPL sides, through necessity and form. It will be important that the front two, along with Moffat and McGowan wide press the Hibernian defence and full backs. Tomsett and Geggan – at the centre of United’s marked improvement in recent weeks in every respect – will have to be at their best, harrying, hustling and denying Hibs easy time on the ball. This area could be a concern for United, not in terms of the performance we can expect from Tomsett and Geggan but that Hibs lack real width (unless Ivan Sproule is given an unexpected start) and therefore could have a numerical advantage in the middle of the park. That lack of width is perhaps a good thing with Ayr's young full backs Jonathan Tiffoney and Adam Dodd potentially the weak links in an already makeshift back four.

Judging by the media coverage in the run up to the game emanating from Easter Road, Hibs seem to be pinning a lot of  hopes on just not being that side defeated 14 months ago and that they came through that Cowdenbeath game.  But Somerset Park will be a different proposition and its not often a Second Division side knocks out one from the SPL (last year excepted, of course).  Ayr fans have first hand experience that hastily assembled teams of loan players do not always work and to date there has been no evidence that Pat Fenlon's Hibs are any better than Colin Calderwood's Hibs. If they are that bad there is every chance Ayr United could be looking at another semi-final in what is fast becoming a very memorable season.