"We were so near and yet so far"

Analysing Brian Reid’s tenure at Somerset Park

It was Sheryl Crow who once sang “a change would do you good” while Cat Stevens countered “It's not time to make a change. Just relax, take it easy”.  I can only imagine that the singer-songwriter, multi-instrumentalist and prominent convert to Islam hadn’t accounted for the conclusion of Brian Reid’s 4 years and 205 days in charge at Somerset Park.

Cat Stevens: wrong on this occasion

After a season that was at times odd-defying, claiming no fewer than three SPL scalps on the way to three quarter-finals and a semi-final at the National Stadium, Ayr United were relegated via the play-offs in heartbreaking fashion at Somerset Park by old adversaries Airdrie. In the context of a poor semi-final, first-leg performance at the Excelsior Stadium, where Ayr were lucky to escape with a goalless draw, from the ominous moment 17 year-old Jackson Longridge was sent off just 17 minutes into the second-leg a dark cloud descended over the old ground and a second relegation in three years - and the end of Reid's spell in charge - seemed inevitable.  The news that Ayr United and Reid, at that point the fourth longest serving manager in the country, were to part company came three days later.

The agreement not to renew Reid’s contract was mutual, with both the club and manager looking to take a new direction.  Most fans also agreed his time was up. In a rare insight to the intentions of Chairman Lachlan Cameron, a statement on the official website announced the club’s wishes to place a greater emphasis on the ‘youth pathway to the first team’ and that in view of the ‘changing landscape in Scottish football’ a change had to happen. For Brian Reid’s part, it was time for a fresh challenge.  Seaking to the Ayrshire Post on his departure, Reid said "even if we had stayed up in the First Division, the decision would probably have been the same".  To what degree the budget cuts implicit in the Board’s new direction influenced his decision is open to speculation but it has been suggested he was unhappy.

Farewell Brian.

Assessing Brian Reid's spell in charge at Somerset Park is a difficult task. On paper, two promotions, coupled with relative cup success is a noteworthy achievement for someone who started as a 37 year-old rookie with little coaching experience at a club like Ayr United. But four league campaigns also have to be considered in relative terms and alongside the reasonableness of expectation.  Here, the part-time dynamic is perhaps crucial. While I have previously decried Reid for constantlybeating the part-time drum as an excuse, there can be no doubt that United’s part-time status had a bearing on what Reid has achieved and what he could have been expected to achieve. But it doesn’t tell the full story.

Reid inherited an apparently unhappy dressing room in October 2007 – just 10 league games into the season – after Neil Watt had attempted to recreate his double promotion-winning Stranraer side of 2003/04 and 04/05 but found his methods to be unwelcome. Reid moved quickly to shake up the squad: most of the ‘Stranraer six’ were released (Higgins, Hamilton, Corr, Swift), Micheal Moore was ushered to the sidelines and in came a number short-term loan signings, including Dean Keenan and Willie Easton. Ayr finished the season in 7^th place, the same position they were when Watt resigned.

The players brought to the club during Brian Reid’s first six months in charge – and first close season – demonstrated perhaps Reid’s greatest strength: player recruitment.  Reid proved to be adept at squad building and bringing better players to the club.  He probably leaves in credit when the good signings are balanced against the bad.  The team built – virtually from scratch – to tackle the Second Division in summer 2008, winning promotion via the play-offs best demonstrates this. Stephen Grindlay was an ever present between the posts and was, and still is, a solid goalkeeper; Dempsie, Walker, Campbell and McGowan were a solid back-four.  In midfield, Chris Aitken joined Ryan Stevenson (already at the club) and Keenan and Easton in making over 30 appearances and upfront the scoring prowess of Bryan Prunty and Alex Williams was supplemented by David Gormely and, from January, Mark Roberts.  While, for example, Chris Aitken had his (vocal) detractors, it’s hard to argue that any of the mainstays of that squad recruited by Reid were bad signings. 

Chris Aitken: unpopular but a good signing?

Ayr’s relegation the following season would call into question these credentials. United kicked off their Centenary season with the manager putting faith in the majority of the squad that had won promotion via the play-offs. Defenders Alan Dempsie and Scott Walker were the only regular starters from the previous season released, with Billy Gibson and Andrew Aitken coming in as replacements along with Craig Samson to provide competition to Grindlay.  The less said about David O’Brien’s Ayr United career the better.

The side did not start the season well.  Ayr’s 1-0 at home to Dunfermline at the start of December was just their second of the season and meant they were already six points adrift of 8^th position but two ahead of bottom placed Airdrie.  To Reid’s credit, he had already identified that reinforcements were required and throughout the following months.  Ryan McGowan, Danny Lafferty, Chris Mitchell, Rocky Visconte and Stephen Reynolds and Danny McKay all came in on loan.  Veterans Junior Mendes and Steve Bowey renewed acquaintances with former team-mate Reid and Tam McManus returned from Ireland with the promise of goals.

But it wasn’t enough. Four wins and no defeats in eight games between mid-February and mid-March offered hope.  Ayr jumped out of the relegation places for five weeks and with nine games left to play were on the same points as Morton with a game in hand, and nine ahead of Airdrie – but Ayr finished the season disastrously.  Eight defeats interrupted by a solitary victory at Firhill meant that United finished 10^th, two points behind Airdrie in the play-off position and six behind Morton in, who defeated Ayr in the final game of the season. Three weeks previous, Airdrie United had travelled down to Somerset Park on a Wednesday and left with crushing 4-1 victory which had narrowed the gap to just three points at the foot of the table. It was perhaps the worst performance of Reid’s spell in charge, even worse than the following Saturday when Inverness sealed the title with a 7-0 rout.

This spectacular collapse is a major black mark on Reid’s report card. Failure to beat Raith Rovers to the title the previous season was a disappointment softened by play-off success. Finishing below Airdrie United – the First Division’s only other part-time side – in the manner in which Ayr did was a major failure.

Following relegation Reid was given the opportunity to rebuild once more.  A previous blog post chronicles that season from the perspective of Ayr’s main rivals that season: Livingston.  Two seasons previously, Ayr and Raith competed mainly as equals.  This time round the West Lothian club had an advantage as the Division’s only full-time side. The Honest Men did have the opportunity at the start of February to close the gap between the sides to one point (United having a game in hand) but the Lions won 3-0 and went on to win the title by 23 points.

Ayr were partly undone by a combination of bad weather – just two league games were played between the end of October and start of January – and a Scottish Cup run that saw them reach the quarter-final, defeating Hibs in a replay at Somerset Park on the way. Of the resulting rescheduled fixtures played mid-week, Ayr won just one of six.  Reid’s side fell well short of the standards set in his first full season in charge – earning 15 fewer points, losing over twice as many games – but again the season was redeemed by triumph in the play-offs.  While few United fans present will forget the scenes of jubilation at Glebe Park at full-time, until Mark Roberts grabbed an equaliser with 13 minutes to go it was beginning to look like a lost cause. Such are the fine margins that define Reid’s managerial reign.

In assembling a squad for a second attempt at the First Division survival, Brian Reid again had to go back to the drawing-board. Alan Martin, the former Scotland U21 keeper brought in as Reid quickly realised first choice David Crawford wasn’t up to the job, and central midfield partnership of Ryan McCann and Scott McLaughlin left for full-time football elsewhere. Kevin Cuthbert, Andy Geggan and Micheal McGowan proved to be adequate replacements, and experience was added in the shape of the returning John Robertson and Gareth Wardlaw.     

Reid’s biggest error this season, however, was not bringing another centre-back to the club. Ayr started the season with a back four of John Robertson, Campbell, Smith and Malone but injuries and suspensions meant they started just four league games – and finished just one.  Campbell endured (another) injury hit season, starting only seven league games. A straight replacement for Campbell would have negated the requirement for wholesale defensive changes: full-backs Robertson and Malone, Ross Robertson and even Andy Geggan all stepping in to partner Chris Smith, often weakening other area of the team. Mid-season, Liam Tomsett was an important capture on loan from Blackpool and was a definite upgrade on Alex Burke (perhaps Reid worst signing ever) and Jamie McKernon alongside Andy Geggan in centre midfield. Sean Higgins and Keigan Parker were added as a 4^th and 5^th striker - but no defender.  

Alex Burke: one to forget

The similarities between 2010 and 2012 are striking. With ten games to go, Ayr were in eight place and had been there for four weeks. This time round the gap over the side at the bottom (Queen of the South) was six points and two points ahead of Raith in 9^th. In both seasons Ayr’s 27^th game was away to Raith Rovers and United fans travelled to Kirkcaldy in big numbers. Hopes of First Division safety were raised and then dashed as United conceded last minute equalisers.  Like in 2010, this set back proved to be the catalyst for an end of season collapse. It was the start of three games in quick succession versus relegation rivals, Rovers, Morton and Queen of the South. Brian Reid’s men failed to win any of them: drawing at home to Morton and losing 2-1 away to Queen of the South. Ayr had blown the opportunity to almost secure their safety. Haunted by the spectre of throwing it away again, wins against Livingston and Dundee, thanks to two spectacular goals from Keigan Parker, weren’t enough to avoid the play-off position and Raith and Morton picked up the points required to stay ahead of the Honest Men.

While 9^th position was an improvement on last time in the First Division, particularly in a league where Ayr were the only part-time side, but any sense of achievement was soon to be diminished as Ayr crashed in the play-offs where yet another vital game – ironically again against Airdrie at Somerset Park – was lost. A United team under Brian Reid beaten by a side that was better organised and drilled and looked like they wanted it more.

This brief sojourn through Reid’s four full seasons in charge indicates a number of recurrences: losing vital games at important times of the season; poor end-of-season form and a huge turn over in players from one season to the next, even during seasons. 

The turnover of players partly reflects the state of Scottish football today and Ayr United’s standing – a part-time team somewhere between the First and Second Division. One year deals are the norm and players will inevitably be looking to for full-time contracts. Brian Reid was able to capitalise on the new economics in the game, recruiting decent players such as Eddie Malone, Ryan McCann and Chris Smith who in recent years would have commanded full time football. The criticism can be levelled at Reid, however, that he was always looking to improve his squad through new players rather than on the training ground.  It seemed that the solution (to not scoring goals, particularly) always lay with a new player and the excuses lay in an inability to find someone "better than we already had". 

On the park, a number of failings were evident and persistent.  While I think Brian Reid wanted his side to play 'the right way', they were often strangled by Reid's conservatism. Defensively, his first preference was for full-backs who were first and foremost solid. The likes of Alan Dempsie, Neil McGowan and even Eddie Malone (set-pieces aside) rarely offered anything in an attacking sense. The signature of Jim Lauchlan in Ayr's second promotion season to replace Jonathan Tiffoney typified this.  Forgetting the contribution in attack, defending balls crossed into the box, particularly in set-pieces was a constant short-coming of Reid's sides during his tenure.

Tactically, Reid was a fairly rigid 442 man. As mentioned above a defensive minded back-four left 6 players in attack with whom to grab the goals. But Ayr rarely seemed to click as an attacking force under Reid, other than in his first full season in charge when the team included Prunty, Williams, Gormley and Ryan Stevenson and netted 71 league goals. United's approach to goalscoring seemed ineffective. Often the side was criticised for over playing in attacking situations: 'walking the ball into the net'. While this is somewhat of an Arsenal inspired cliché, its true that last season Ayr heavily relied on set-pieces for goals, with Micheal McGowan responsible for around half Ayr's goals.

When not 442, Reid did go through spells playing 451, mostly in the First Division.  While was largely responsible for Ayr cup success and giant-killing acts in the cups,  it rarely transposed to league success. Instead, it effectively left United impotent, with little opportunity to win games. Reid argued that the system allowed for a 433 in attack, but this rarely materialised.  It was the cause of much frustration and failed to utilised the squad to the best effect (his used of Micheal Moffat on the left-hand side described as criminal by Mark Roberts). Also apparent was Reid's inability to alter his tactics during games to count opponents . All these thing pointed to a manager who could be reasonably described as tactically naive. This may be unfair, but Reid certainly didn't bring a sophistication to his approach. Much like his playing career it was very much 'safety first'. Or negative. 

Another failing of Reid was his reticence to use the talent coming through the club’s own Academy, particularly in favour of untried youngsters on loan. While no-one could argue with the value of some loan signings, for example Liam Tomsett and Ryan McGowan, many will struggle to recall the contribution made by the likes of Paul Willis and David Crawford.  This has been noted by the Board and was clearly a factor in their decision not to offer Reid a new contract.  Whether our Academy players are good enough is another debate – I guess we’re about to find out – but there have been glimpses and reports of great talents, none of whom have been given an opportunity.

Mark Shankland: the future?

In assessing the season just past, Brian Reid told the Ayrshire Post: “We had a small squad and the cup runs probably had an adverse affect on our ability to stay in the First Division.

 “If we had managed to stay up on the back of two good cup runs it would have gone down as one of the club’s best seasons.

“We were so near and yet so far.”

This can pretty much sum up his five years at the club.  So near and yet so far from the title in 2009. So near and yet so far from First Division survival in 2010. So near and yet so far from beating Kilmarnock in the biggest ever Ayrshire derby. So near and yet so far from staying in First Division in 2012. It was reasonable to expect Ayr to win the title in 2009, and to avoid relegation in 2010 and 2012, and they were in good positions to do so each season but, ultimately Brian Reid failed on each occasion. 

In the end, nearly wasn’t good enough. 

Preview: First Division Play-Offs

The lottery of the play-offs they call it and, after 36 games, the fate of one First Division and three Second Division sides now lies on two - or four - games.  For Ayr United, in this end-of-season contest for the third time in four years, the prize is First Division survival. For Arbroath, Dumbarton and Airdrie United its promotion alongside Cowdenbeath to Scotland's second tier.

Play-Off Champions: One year one United are looking for same again.

The bookies make Ayr United favourites but the 9th placed First Division side has not faired well in the play-offs, retaining their status just once in six years. Here is a run-down on the form, key men and play-off records of the contenders:


Ayr United

Season so far: Ayr United have upset the established order this season by finishing above full-time Queen of the South to give themselves the opportunity to make it successive seasons in the First Division for the first time since 2003. Coupled with three SPL scalps en-route to the League Cup semi-final and a Scottish Cup quarter-final, survival would represent a huge achievement for Brian Reid’s side but how will the favourites tag sit?

Form: United finished the season, as is becoming customary, with a number of defeats. Seven in nine games to be precise but wins away to Livingston and at home to Dundee were enough avoid an automatic return to the First Division with a game to spare, having done enough between January and the start of March to open up an advantage over Queen of the South.

Stats: Quite simply United have shipped too many goals this season. Despite eight clean sheets, more than Queen of the South, Hamilton and twice as many as Raith Rovers, 67 goals have been conceded,  3 or more goals on 12 occasions. Injuries (and suspensions) haven't helped and Brian Reid has been forced into using six different centre-back partnerships. Going into the play-offs, John Robertson and Martyn Campbell are injury doubts and, worryingly, Chris Smith has made two or three costly and uncharacteristic errors. 

In their favour, time-after-time, Brian Reid's man have shown tremendous character and a never-say-die attitude: Ayr have clawed back an impressive 17 points from a losing position this season.

Key Men: Former St. Johnstone and Blackpool striker Keigan Parker hasn't set the heather on fire since his return north but two goals of exquisite quality versus Dundee last weekend signalled that the now 29 year-old striker could play a big part in United’s survival hopes. Parker has play-off pedigree – in 2007 he scored Blackpool's second goal in their 2-0 win against Yeovil Town in the League One play-off final at Wembley. 

Keigan Parker: time to shine?

Alongside Parker, ‘keeper Kevin Cuthbert has picked up most of the Player of the Year awards this season and has made very few mistakes and many more terrific saves between the sticks, while the goals of Mark Roberts and Michael Moffat were instrumental in Ayr's success last season. Moffat warmed up with two goals against Falkirk on the final day of the season.

Play-off record: P8, W5, D3, L0, F19, A11 - The Honest Men haven't lost a game in the play-offs, earning promotion to the First Division in 2009 and 2011. Ayr have won all four of their away ties, including decisive second-leg games at Airdrie and Brechin.

Odds: 15/8

Airdrie
Season so far: Airdrie clinched fourth position and the final play-off spot on the last day of the season with their first goalless draw of the season at Champions Cowdenbeath while Stenhousemuir, with whom they were level on points going into game, crashed 2-1 at home to Forfar.  It was only in April that the Diamonds climbed into the top four as they finished strongly as others faltered.

Form: So often its the form side that is the the most dangerous going into the play-offs and that accolade is undoubtedly Airdrie United's. The Diamonds have lost just one game since 25th February, a run of 11 games that has earned 24 points.

Stats: One statistics stands out for Airdrie and its their disciplinary record. Jimmy Boyle's men have picked up 12 red and 77 yellow cards this season, the worst record in Scotland.  Ayr United travel to Lanarkshire on Wednesday night in the first-leg of the semi-final and will do well to prevent the hosts scoring.  Airdrie have found the net 43 times in 18 home games this season and have only failed to score at New Broomfield once.

Key Men: The Airdrie squad has a good mix of youth and experience. David Lilley and Paul Lovering - injuries permitting - will marshal the defence while big Derek Holmes will be a handful up-front but Airdrie's biggest danger man is likely to be Holmes strike partner, Ryan Donnelly. The highly rated 20 year-old is the Second Division's top goalscorer with 27 goals (non of which have come from the penalty spot).  Donnelly is described by preeminent SFL blogger Craig Telfer in an article for the two unfortunates blog as "a deft and instinctive finisher, [who] displays intelligent positioning and movement in and around the penalty area." and "strong on both feet and a potent threat in the air".  Donnelly has been less prolific since the turn of the year, with three goals in his last 12 appearances compared to 13 goals in the 12 games previous.

Ryan Donnelly: can he recapture his early season goalscoring form?

Play-off record: P14 W5 D3 L6 F22 A18 - Airdrie have a disastrous play-off record and hold the unwanted distinction of losing three consecutive First Division play-off finals. They were relegated from the First Division via the play-offs in 2007, lost to Clyde in the final the following year but benefited from the demise of Gretna to go up. In 2009, Livingston's demotion to the third Division saved the Diamonds again after play-off final defeat to Ayr United.  Their fourth play-off appearance in 2010 finally saw them relegated to the Second Division when Brechin City defeated them at the semi-final stage. 

Odds: 10/3

Arbroath
Season so far: Managed by former Ayr United midfielder Paul Sheerin, Arbroath unfurled their first Championship flag in their 133-year history at Gayfield on the opening day of this season and went on to hammer fellow Second Division new boys Albion Rovers 6-2. Despite losing their next game away to Stenhousemuir, that result was typical of an impressive start to the season for the Red Lichties which reaped 18 points from their first seven games and saw them find the net 23 times. Unfortunately for Sheerin and his side, Cowdenbeath also started the season well and before the first quarter of the season was out it was the Fife side who topped the table, with Arbroath second and it was to remain that way for the rest of the season.

Arbroath fans, including a man in Speedos, celebrate promotion

Form: Arbroath's form has tailed off at the end of the season, with only three wins in their last 11 games.  A 3-2 victory at Central Park at the start of April narrowed the gap to three points with four games to play but ultimately merely delayed Cowdenbeath's title celebrations - Arbroath took just a point from their next two games as the Blue Brazil took six. The following week, Sheerin described his side's defeat at home to Stenhousemuir as "the worst performance I've been involved in since I've been at the club"

Stats: The Red Lichties have averaged over two goals per game this season, netting 76 times in 36 games, eight more than Champions Cowdenbeath. At the other end, they've conceded too many goals (51) and kept only 6 clean sheets.

Key Men: Arbroath strength is in the midfield.  At the age of 37, player-manager Paul Sheerin can still pick a pass with one of the finest left foots to grace Scotland in recent years, as can former Motherwell, Hibs and Scotland (albeit under the Vogts era...) midfielder Brain Kerr and the diminutive 21 year-old Josh Falkingham, who would surely be playing at a higher level if he was a few inches taller. In front of that trio, neither Steven Doris and Gavin Swankie are out-and-out strikers but have an incredible 72 goals between them in the last two seasons.

Play-off record: P12, W3, D4, L5, F13, A13 - The Angus side have enjoyed both success and failure in four Second Division play-off campaigns. Defeated at the semi-final stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07 it was third time lucky the following season with aggregate victories over Cowdenbeath (after extra-time) and Stranraer earning promotion in 2008.

Two years later and it was back to the Third Division football as Arbroath were relegated via the play-offs, losing out 2-0 in the final to Angus rivals Forfar at Station Park after the first leg at Gayfield ended goalless.

Odds: 5/2

Dumbarton

Season so far: Dumbarton secured their highest finish in the league since 2004 – and a play-off spot – in their penultimate game of the regular season and will be looking to reach the second tier of Scottish football for the first time since 1996. The Sons can look towards a ten-game unbeaten run comprising 8 wins and 2 draws at the turn of the year which helped establish the side’s play-off credentials after what is fast becoming a trademark slow start to the season. The Sons ended the first round of nine fixtures in seventh position and were shipping an average of 2.55 goals per game but, despite a dismal March which brought only four points from 6 games (and saw 14 goals conceded), Dumbarton looked comfortable in third spot since mid-February.  

Form: Ended the season with three wins to finish six points clear of fourth placed Airdrie United.

Stats: Not only have Dumbarton been slow starters over the course of the season, Adamson's men have generally been slow starters in matches. Their first-half record is ranked 8th in the Second Division - they have been leading after 45 minutes on just eight occasions meaning they have required some pretty big second periods to earn their seventeen league wins.

Key Men: Former Ayr United duo Bryan Prunty and Scott Agnew are Dumbarton’s top goalscorers this season with 14 and 12 goals respectively. A striker that thrives on confidence, Prunty scored 18 goals in 2008/09 and his goalscoring seems to come in bursts: seven in 10 games during Dumbarton's purple patch but only one in nine since the start of March. Agnew was more of a peripheral figure during his time at Somerset Park but regular football, at Stranraer and then Dumbarton this season, has seen the playmaker become an integral player more than capable of getting his name on the scoresheet. The Sons will be a big danger at set-pieces with his dead ball prowess.  And what about former Kilmarnock striker Craig Dargo? He scored a hat-trick on the final day of the season and would surely love to exorcise the demons of that penalty miss at the Somerset Road in 2001.

Craig Dargo. Surely not?

Play-off record: This will be Dumbarton’s first foray into the end-of-season play-offs.

Odds: 3/1