Progression not punishment most important as Scottish football faces up to newco Rangers

After four months in administration, the reformation of Rangers FC is now a certainty following Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs rejection of a company voluntary arrangement aimed at saving the 140 year-old club. The corporate entity which is The Rangers Football Club plc will be liquidated and new company created.  

Scottish football is left with a monumental decision to make and with the fixture list to be published on Monday and the SPL season due to kick-off on the 4^th August, the time for delay, avoidance and excuses for reconvening at a later date is over. A decision must be made now - what fate the newco Rangers?

There is the understandable clamour for Rangers to be punished beyond those self-inflicted consequences of their mismanagement. It is unpalatable for most that ‘new’ Rangers could continue, free from the burden of debt and sporting sanction, to compete at the top of the SPL. The most obvious sentence appears to be ‘relegation’ to the Third Division.  More accurately this would involve the SPL refusing to transfer Rangers’ share to the newco and its subsequent application and election to the SFL. This would satisfy the appetite for ‘sporting justice’ for the Ibrox club’s substantial misdemeanours, notwithstanding the claims of other clubs, such as Cove Rangers and Spartans, who may also wish election to the SFL.

On the other hand, there is the uncertainty – the fear within Boardrooms across the SPL – over what the future holds without Rangers. Specifically, how it will it affect the bottom line. There seems to be nervousness amongst SPL clubs, including Celtic despite previous claims, that they would be unable to survive without the contribution made by Rangers to collective television and sponsorship revenues and individual gate receipts. 

It is easy to misconstrue the opinions expressed online, on forums such as Pie & Bovril, as representing the majority of football fans but it is clear that supporters of all clubs (perhaps even including Rangers) are against allowing newco Rangers to continue in the SPL.  Surveys show opposition running as high as 95%, with talk of boycotts should Rangers be allowed to continue in the SPL.  Now the failure of the CVA has been confirmed, chairmen are left with a decision they did not want to make and run the risk of alienating (possibly even losing) their supporters.

The consequences of not punishing Rangers are often played out, less so the consequences of their punishment.  Rangers starting again in the SFL may be the right punishment for Rangers, but is it the right punishment for Scottish football and for clubs like Peterhead, Stranraer and Queen’s Park?

You cannot escape the fact that the popularity of Rangers (and Celtic) – not only in Scotland but internationally – far exceeds that any other club in Scotland. It is fair to assume that any Phoenix Rangers club would have the resources to return to the SPL in three seasons. Competition within SFL 3, 2 and 1 would be temporarily suspended as the newco freak show undertook a three-season procession back to the SPL.  This cannot be healthy.  We can talk about the sporting integrity of allowing Rangers to continue in the SPL but where is the integrity in a competition only one side can realistically win? If Rangers do kick-off in the Third Division on August 11^th, through no fault of their own, Peterhead, Stranaer etc. are effectively left to scrap it out for a promotion play-off place.

Perhaps the best solution for the game in Scotland is therefore Rangers are suspended from Scottish football next season. This way the club are punished in a manner that is appropriate (and arguably more severe than relegation to the Third Division); the integrity of the SFL is not compromised and it can remain competitive; season 2012/13 can kick-off in August free from the uncertainty of the Rangers situation which seems unlikely to resolved anytime soon and, most importantly, instead of rushing to a short-term fix, significant reform within the game can be considered, agreed and timetabled over the course of next season.

Rather than making an example of Rangers, it is more important that a solution preventing clubs simply reforming as new corporate entities to avoid financial obligations is found through the introduction of stronger regulation. The argument that SFL clubs would benefit financially as newco Rangers worked their inevitable way back to the top? Again, changes to Scottish football that would see a more equitable distribution of revenues would serve the game much better in the long run. If Rangers are simply relegated to the Third Division with no changes to the way Scottish football is regulated and governed it will be travesty. A huge, once in a generation, opportunity missed.

One of Scottish football’s biggest failings throughout this saga has been an entirely ineffective rule book. The fate of newco Rangers should be legislated for, laid out in the statutes in black and white so there could be no uncertainly. Fail to comply with x by y date and z will happen (e.g. demonstrate by the end of May the club’s finances are sound or face demotion). Instead, the SPL and SFA are making it up as they go along, opening themselves up to claims and counter-claims of bias. Simply it is an unedifying disaster.

If Scottish football learns one thing from this debacle it must be that it has to change.  This should not be lost among the fearvount clamber to punish Rangers.

Edited to add: After sharing the main points of this blog post on twitter and few people have asked how suspending Rangers for a season would work in practice. I would consider inviting applications to join the Third Division, with one side joining next season for a minimum of three seasons and another joining the following season - alongside Rangers - for a minimum of two seasons, thus maintaining an even number of teams within the league set-up. Within this three year period I'd like to see the bottom of the Third Division opened up, allowing progressive clubs outside the current league structure to join.

As for the fate of Rangers following their one year suspension, for the reasons stated above, I would be comfortable with them rejoining the top division provided: a) they are able to demonstrate in good time they are vintage position to do so; and b) no further wrongdoing is exposed, bearing in mind the 'Big Tax case' and the SFA's investigation into dual contracts.

"We were so near and yet so far"

Analysing Brian Reid’s tenure at Somerset Park

It was Sheryl Crow who once sang “a change would do you good” while Cat Stevens countered “It's not time to make a change. Just relax, take it easy”.  I can only imagine that the singer-songwriter, multi-instrumentalist and prominent convert to Islam hadn’t accounted for the conclusion of Brian Reid’s 4 years and 205 days in charge at Somerset Park.

Cat Stevens: wrong on this occasion

After a season that was at times odd-defying, claiming no fewer than three SPL scalps on the way to three quarter-finals and a semi-final at the National Stadium, Ayr United were relegated via the play-offs in heartbreaking fashion at Somerset Park by old adversaries Airdrie. In the context of a poor semi-final, first-leg performance at the Excelsior Stadium, where Ayr were lucky to escape with a goalless draw, from the ominous moment 17 year-old Jackson Longridge was sent off just 17 minutes into the second-leg a dark cloud descended over the old ground and a second relegation in three years - and the end of Reid's spell in charge - seemed inevitable.  The news that Ayr United and Reid, at that point the fourth longest serving manager in the country, were to part company came three days later.

The agreement not to renew Reid’s contract was mutual, with both the club and manager looking to take a new direction.  Most fans also agreed his time was up. In a rare insight to the intentions of Chairman Lachlan Cameron, a statement on the official website announced the club’s wishes to place a greater emphasis on the ‘youth pathway to the first team’ and that in view of the ‘changing landscape in Scottish football’ a change had to happen. For Brian Reid’s part, it was time for a fresh challenge.  Seaking to the Ayrshire Post on his departure, Reid said "even if we had stayed up in the First Division, the decision would probably have been the same".  To what degree the budget cuts implicit in the Board’s new direction influenced his decision is open to speculation but it has been suggested he was unhappy.

Farewell Brian.

Assessing Brian Reid's spell in charge at Somerset Park is a difficult task. On paper, two promotions, coupled with relative cup success is a noteworthy achievement for someone who started as a 37 year-old rookie with little coaching experience at a club like Ayr United. But four league campaigns also have to be considered in relative terms and alongside the reasonableness of expectation.  Here, the part-time dynamic is perhaps crucial. While I have previously decried Reid for constantlybeating the part-time drum as an excuse, there can be no doubt that United’s part-time status had a bearing on what Reid has achieved and what he could have been expected to achieve. But it doesn’t tell the full story.

Reid inherited an apparently unhappy dressing room in October 2007 – just 10 league games into the season – after Neil Watt had attempted to recreate his double promotion-winning Stranraer side of 2003/04 and 04/05 but found his methods to be unwelcome. Reid moved quickly to shake up the squad: most of the ‘Stranraer six’ were released (Higgins, Hamilton, Corr, Swift), Micheal Moore was ushered to the sidelines and in came a number short-term loan signings, including Dean Keenan and Willie Easton. Ayr finished the season in 7^th place, the same position they were when Watt resigned.

The players brought to the club during Brian Reid’s first six months in charge – and first close season – demonstrated perhaps Reid’s greatest strength: player recruitment.  Reid proved to be adept at squad building and bringing better players to the club.  He probably leaves in credit when the good signings are balanced against the bad.  The team built – virtually from scratch – to tackle the Second Division in summer 2008, winning promotion via the play-offs best demonstrates this. Stephen Grindlay was an ever present between the posts and was, and still is, a solid goalkeeper; Dempsie, Walker, Campbell and McGowan were a solid back-four.  In midfield, Chris Aitken joined Ryan Stevenson (already at the club) and Keenan and Easton in making over 30 appearances and upfront the scoring prowess of Bryan Prunty and Alex Williams was supplemented by David Gormely and, from January, Mark Roberts.  While, for example, Chris Aitken had his (vocal) detractors, it’s hard to argue that any of the mainstays of that squad recruited by Reid were bad signings. 

Chris Aitken: unpopular but a good signing?

Ayr’s relegation the following season would call into question these credentials. United kicked off their Centenary season with the manager putting faith in the majority of the squad that had won promotion via the play-offs. Defenders Alan Dempsie and Scott Walker were the only regular starters from the previous season released, with Billy Gibson and Andrew Aitken coming in as replacements along with Craig Samson to provide competition to Grindlay.  The less said about David O’Brien’s Ayr United career the better.

The side did not start the season well.  Ayr’s 1-0 at home to Dunfermline at the start of December was just their second of the season and meant they were already six points adrift of 8^th position but two ahead of bottom placed Airdrie.  To Reid’s credit, he had already identified that reinforcements were required and throughout the following months.  Ryan McGowan, Danny Lafferty, Chris Mitchell, Rocky Visconte and Stephen Reynolds and Danny McKay all came in on loan.  Veterans Junior Mendes and Steve Bowey renewed acquaintances with former team-mate Reid and Tam McManus returned from Ireland with the promise of goals.

But it wasn’t enough. Four wins and no defeats in eight games between mid-February and mid-March offered hope.  Ayr jumped out of the relegation places for five weeks and with nine games left to play were on the same points as Morton with a game in hand, and nine ahead of Airdrie – but Ayr finished the season disastrously.  Eight defeats interrupted by a solitary victory at Firhill meant that United finished 10^th, two points behind Airdrie in the play-off position and six behind Morton in, who defeated Ayr in the final game of the season. Three weeks previous, Airdrie United had travelled down to Somerset Park on a Wednesday and left with crushing 4-1 victory which had narrowed the gap to just three points at the foot of the table. It was perhaps the worst performance of Reid’s spell in charge, even worse than the following Saturday when Inverness sealed the title with a 7-0 rout.

This spectacular collapse is a major black mark on Reid’s report card. Failure to beat Raith Rovers to the title the previous season was a disappointment softened by play-off success. Finishing below Airdrie United – the First Division’s only other part-time side – in the manner in which Ayr did was a major failure.

Following relegation Reid was given the opportunity to rebuild once more.  A previous blog post chronicles that season from the perspective of Ayr’s main rivals that season: Livingston.  Two seasons previously, Ayr and Raith competed mainly as equals.  This time round the West Lothian club had an advantage as the Division’s only full-time side. The Honest Men did have the opportunity at the start of February to close the gap between the sides to one point (United having a game in hand) but the Lions won 3-0 and went on to win the title by 23 points.

Ayr were partly undone by a combination of bad weather – just two league games were played between the end of October and start of January – and a Scottish Cup run that saw them reach the quarter-final, defeating Hibs in a replay at Somerset Park on the way. Of the resulting rescheduled fixtures played mid-week, Ayr won just one of six.  Reid’s side fell well short of the standards set in his first full season in charge – earning 15 fewer points, losing over twice as many games – but again the season was redeemed by triumph in the play-offs.  While few United fans present will forget the scenes of jubilation at Glebe Park at full-time, until Mark Roberts grabbed an equaliser with 13 minutes to go it was beginning to look like a lost cause. Such are the fine margins that define Reid’s managerial reign.

In assembling a squad for a second attempt at the First Division survival, Brian Reid again had to go back to the drawing-board. Alan Martin, the former Scotland U21 keeper brought in as Reid quickly realised first choice David Crawford wasn’t up to the job, and central midfield partnership of Ryan McCann and Scott McLaughlin left for full-time football elsewhere. Kevin Cuthbert, Andy Geggan and Micheal McGowan proved to be adequate replacements, and experience was added in the shape of the returning John Robertson and Gareth Wardlaw.     

Reid’s biggest error this season, however, was not bringing another centre-back to the club. Ayr started the season with a back four of John Robertson, Campbell, Smith and Malone but injuries and suspensions meant they started just four league games – and finished just one.  Campbell endured (another) injury hit season, starting only seven league games. A straight replacement for Campbell would have negated the requirement for wholesale defensive changes: full-backs Robertson and Malone, Ross Robertson and even Andy Geggan all stepping in to partner Chris Smith, often weakening other area of the team. Mid-season, Liam Tomsett was an important capture on loan from Blackpool and was a definite upgrade on Alex Burke (perhaps Reid worst signing ever) and Jamie McKernon alongside Andy Geggan in centre midfield. Sean Higgins and Keigan Parker were added as a 4^th and 5^th striker - but no defender.  

Alex Burke: one to forget

The similarities between 2010 and 2012 are striking. With ten games to go, Ayr were in eight place and had been there for four weeks. This time round the gap over the side at the bottom (Queen of the South) was six points and two points ahead of Raith in 9^th. In both seasons Ayr’s 27^th game was away to Raith Rovers and United fans travelled to Kirkcaldy in big numbers. Hopes of First Division safety were raised and then dashed as United conceded last minute equalisers.  Like in 2010, this set back proved to be the catalyst for an end of season collapse. It was the start of three games in quick succession versus relegation rivals, Rovers, Morton and Queen of the South. Brian Reid’s men failed to win any of them: drawing at home to Morton and losing 2-1 away to Queen of the South. Ayr had blown the opportunity to almost secure their safety. Haunted by the spectre of throwing it away again, wins against Livingston and Dundee, thanks to two spectacular goals from Keigan Parker, weren’t enough to avoid the play-off position and Raith and Morton picked up the points required to stay ahead of the Honest Men.

While 9^th position was an improvement on last time in the First Division, particularly in a league where Ayr were the only part-time side, but any sense of achievement was soon to be diminished as Ayr crashed in the play-offs where yet another vital game – ironically again against Airdrie at Somerset Park – was lost. A United team under Brian Reid beaten by a side that was better organised and drilled and looked like they wanted it more.

This brief sojourn through Reid’s four full seasons in charge indicates a number of recurrences: losing vital games at important times of the season; poor end-of-season form and a huge turn over in players from one season to the next, even during seasons. 

The turnover of players partly reflects the state of Scottish football today and Ayr United’s standing – a part-time team somewhere between the First and Second Division. One year deals are the norm and players will inevitably be looking to for full-time contracts. Brian Reid was able to capitalise on the new economics in the game, recruiting decent players such as Eddie Malone, Ryan McCann and Chris Smith who in recent years would have commanded full time football. The criticism can be levelled at Reid, however, that he was always looking to improve his squad through new players rather than on the training ground.  It seemed that the solution (to not scoring goals, particularly) always lay with a new player and the excuses lay in an inability to find someone "better than we already had". 

On the park, a number of failings were evident and persistent.  While I think Brian Reid wanted his side to play 'the right way', they were often strangled by Reid's conservatism. Defensively, his first preference was for full-backs who were first and foremost solid. The likes of Alan Dempsie, Neil McGowan and even Eddie Malone (set-pieces aside) rarely offered anything in an attacking sense. The signature of Jim Lauchlan in Ayr's second promotion season to replace Jonathan Tiffoney typified this.  Forgetting the contribution in attack, defending balls crossed into the box, particularly in set-pieces was a constant short-coming of Reid's sides during his tenure.

Tactically, Reid was a fairly rigid 442 man. As mentioned above a defensive minded back-four left 6 players in attack with whom to grab the goals. But Ayr rarely seemed to click as an attacking force under Reid, other than in his first full season in charge when the team included Prunty, Williams, Gormley and Ryan Stevenson and netted 71 league goals. United's approach to goalscoring seemed ineffective. Often the side was criticised for over playing in attacking situations: 'walking the ball into the net'. While this is somewhat of an Arsenal inspired cliché, its true that last season Ayr heavily relied on set-pieces for goals, with Micheal McGowan responsible for around half Ayr's goals.

When not 442, Reid did go through spells playing 451, mostly in the First Division.  While was largely responsible for Ayr cup success and giant-killing acts in the cups,  it rarely transposed to league success. Instead, it effectively left United impotent, with little opportunity to win games. Reid argued that the system allowed for a 433 in attack, but this rarely materialised.  It was the cause of much frustration and failed to utilised the squad to the best effect (his used of Micheal Moffat on the left-hand side described as criminal by Mark Roberts). Also apparent was Reid's inability to alter his tactics during games to count opponents . All these thing pointed to a manager who could be reasonably described as tactically naive. This may be unfair, but Reid certainly didn't bring a sophistication to his approach. Much like his playing career it was very much 'safety first'. Or negative. 

Another failing of Reid was his reticence to use the talent coming through the club’s own Academy, particularly in favour of untried youngsters on loan. While no-one could argue with the value of some loan signings, for example Liam Tomsett and Ryan McGowan, many will struggle to recall the contribution made by the likes of Paul Willis and David Crawford.  This has been noted by the Board and was clearly a factor in their decision not to offer Reid a new contract.  Whether our Academy players are good enough is another debate – I guess we’re about to find out – but there have been glimpses and reports of great talents, none of whom have been given an opportunity.

Mark Shankland: the future?

In assessing the season just past, Brian Reid told the Ayrshire Post: “We had a small squad and the cup runs probably had an adverse affect on our ability to stay in the First Division.

 “If we had managed to stay up on the back of two good cup runs it would have gone down as one of the club’s best seasons.

“We were so near and yet so far.”

This can pretty much sum up his five years at the club.  So near and yet so far from the title in 2009. So near and yet so far from First Division survival in 2010. So near and yet so far from beating Kilmarnock in the biggest ever Ayrshire derby. So near and yet so far from staying in First Division in 2012. It was reasonable to expect Ayr to win the title in 2009, and to avoid relegation in 2010 and 2012, and they were in good positions to do so each season but, ultimately Brian Reid failed on each occasion. 

In the end, nearly wasn’t good enough. 

Part-time thinking

Adam Dodd had only been at Somerset Park for a fortnight but he already knew the script: “There is a huge difference between part-time and full-time and we put in a real effort and deserved to get something out of the game, or at least take it to penalties" he told the Herald after United’s semi-final defeat at Hampden. It is a familiar mantra – Ayr boss Brian Reid uses it in almost every interview you hear or read. Whether to take the pressure off his squad and engender an ‘underdog’ spirit as United fight relegation against exclusively full time opposition, or to take pressure of himself as an ambitious manager looking to move upwards in the game, there can be no doubt over the contractual status of Reid’s squad.

Unless you are Kenny Shiels of course. The contrary Kilmarnock manager caused a storm in the run up to the semi-final by claiming on BBC Radio Scotland Ayr United were not part time: “I don’t know where they get this part-time thing from. They are very much a full-time team” the Northern Irishman maintained. To underline his point Sheils made reference to United signing two players from Blackpool (Dodd and Tomsett on loan) and, bizarrely, goalkeeper Cammy Bell fitting a kitchen in his own home.

“We have to make it quite clear that they’re not part-time, they are full-time". 

Kenny Shiels on Ayr United

Brian Reid was affronted and the next day winger Mickey McGowan was on the back page of the red tops in a hard hat. Reid said: “I’m shocked, to tell you the truth. I’m struggling to understand where Kenny is coming from or exactly what it is he is trying to say.

“Is he calling us liars? It certainly looks that way.

“We are part-timers up against a side from the SPL and we are the underdogs. We are not lying about that.”

Michael McGowan: not a full-time footballer

A psychology graduate, Shiels - perhaps concerned about meeting the less cerebrally gifted Reid on a dark night - admitted he was playing mind games.  How else could you explain the Ulsterman claiming Kilmarnock (population 45,000) were the underdogs going into the semi-final because Ayr (population 46,000) is a bigger town? He was trying, unconvincingly, to take the pressure off his side.  But, whisper it, I think Sheils was making a good point about Ayr United's part-time status. A point that was seemingling missed by a rattled Reid and lost in the tabloid hubris surrounding the derby.

Sheils, not a stranger to being misunderstood, speaks from experience having managed in Northern Ireland for a number of years. "The boys are more professional now, they will have done their work and I guarantee they will have done as much work as us and they will be well rested" he said. Again after the game: "...do you think those guys are part-time? Modern players, whether they are with Ayr, Montrose or East Fife, they do their preparation because they have so much pride in being a good footballer".

If you give Brian Reid the credit for having the nous, the Kilmarnock manager called it correctly: "I've been in that position and what you do, as a manager, is you bring it up all the time to try to use it to take the pressure off your players.

"I don't blame Brian for doing that, it's a method of trying to take the pressure off his players.

He is working really hard to be the underdog and I can appreciate that."

Realism is important but I don't think some positivity from would go amiss from Brian Reid, for players and fans alike.  By constantly playing the part-time card, Reid may be taking the pressure off his players but is he also giving them an excuse?  Why not build belief in the players - and the fans - that Ayr United can match their opposition? Completely missed in the furore surrounding Sheils' post-match comments was the root of his frustration at Ayr's tactics: “Ayr were good enough to win. They have good players.

"You just have to make them believe that. You have to make them believe they are good.

"Their players' work ethic and endeavour was magnificent but it was a negative approach."

I've discussed the rights and wrong of United's approach in that game, but did the players believe that they could match Killie? More importantly, do they believe they can stay in the First Division?

The presumption is that part-time teams will 'run out of legs', tire in games against full-time outfits.  But Ayr have shown this season that they are a fit side, more than a match even for SPL sides. They took Hearts to extra-time in September. Matched St. Mirren for 90 mins in October, finishing the stronger and scoring a late winner. Both midweek games.  Indeed, as pointed out by Ross Moffat on twitter, no side in the First Division has picked up more points in final 10 minutes of games than the Honest Men, a season changing seven points from defeats turned to draws and draws into victories.  Brian Reid and his staff, and the players, deserve enormous credit for this.

United did come unstuck last Tuesday at Firhill, but the reason for Partick Thistle's second-half was as much to do with circumstances and schedules as it was United being part-time. Six nights previously, United had been chasing shadows for the first half-an-hour versus an exuberant Falkirk side but, with an extraordinary effort came back to finish the game stronger. At the weekend, a long journey to Dingwall and back was interspersed with a battling performance against league leaders Ross County in difficult conditions and on a heavy pitch. Any side, no matter how fit, would have struggled with that going into their third game of the week. Added to that a makeshift defence, weakened further by the loss of John Robertson when the score was still 1-1, and it was simply a bad day (or night) at the office.

Brian Reid hasn't always seen part-time football as such a hindrance. Following his first promotion to the First Division in 2009, he told the Ayrshire Post: “I don’t buy the argument that there’s a huge gap to make up and we certainly won’t be using the part-time excuse.” What changed? Ayr battled for the Second Division title in Season 2009/10 against a Raith Rovers who, like Ayr, hand a mix of part-time and full-time players.  The following season, United battled against relegation against Rovers and part-time Airdrie.  A disastrous run of just one win from their last 10 games saw United finish bottom on the final day of the season, two points behind Airdrie. The Diamonds - with a similarly punishing scheduled and part-time squad - picked up 17 points...

The psyche was probably changed the following season. Livingston romped the Second Division as the only full-time side. United finished 23 points behind Livi, but more interestingly with 15 points less than Season 2008/09.  That season saw some horror results against sides, (annoying football cliché alert) with all due respect, Ayr should have been beating. 4-1 away to Alloa and Forfar. 4-0 at home to East Fife. 3-1 at home to Stenhousemuir. Shocking results that had nothing to do with Ayr United being part-time and everything to do with Brian Reid's shortcomings as a tactician and man manager. Livingston's full-time status was a convenient excuse. Play-off success was the get out of jail card for the manager.

This season, unlike Season 2010/11, Ayr are the only part-time in the First Division but so far are holding their own, very much in a three-way relegation battle involving Raith Rovers and Queen of the South. Yes, full-time teams have more time to work on shape and tactics. More time to recover. But if Brian Reid can install the belief his players that they are match for any side in this division, regardless of whether they deliver pigs trotters, work on building sites or train full-time, hopefully the conclusion to the season can be positive.

Striking the right balance

Ayr United's postponed Scottish Cup fourth round tie versus Falkirk, due to be played at Somerset Park last Saturday, gave Brian Reid the opportunity for some much needed time on the training ground with his squad. In the run up to the League Cup semi-final, Reid described some of the practical difficulties he faces seeing his players for only 90 or so minutes, twice a week. Chief amongst the difficulties of competing with boys clubs and amateur sides for half of a floodlit artifical pitch was the shortage of time to work on tactics and the shape of the side.

The need to hit the tactics board appears to be all the more necessary following the Honest Men's January transfer dealings. Along with the recruitment of Blackpool teenagers Adam Dodd and Liam Thomsett on loan, Ayr have added three strikers: Sean Higgins, Keigan Parker and Marc Dyer. With only Tam McManus leaving the squad following an entirely underwhelming return, Reid now has plenty of striking options to choose from. It's left United fans wondering how the side will line-up for what is sure to be a relegation battle.

This season has seen Brian Reid rotate his front men, Gareth Wardlaw, Mark Roberts, Micheal Moffat and latterly, Tam McManus. With nine league goals between them, they haven't been prolific and United are the league's lowest scorers - the only side to manage less than a goal a game average.

League appearances only. Source: www.andysstats.co.uk

Reid's favoured front two has been Roberts and Wardlaw, but the two have failed to strike much of a partnership.  Wardlaw has been Reid's go-to man when he has played one up front and is Ayr's best option in this role with his hold-up play and physicality. Top league goalscorer Micheal Moffat has been employed mainly in midfield, wide of both a 4 and a 5. This has been much to the chagrin of supporters - Moffat has show in glimpses when played through the middle he has something more to offer in an advanced role.

Brian Reid will be hoping his new recruits can help Ayr find the net more regularly. Sean Higgins has signed on loan from St. Johnstone having made just one start and three substitute appearances for the Perth side this season. Speaking after recruiting Higgins from Tayside rivals Dundee in the summer, then Saints boss Derek McInnes said: "Sean is a player we've looked at in the past because he's got good technical ability. He's a finisher and he had a great second half of the season before he got injured. He can play off a main striker as well, which is something we've not really had”. Higgins netted nine goals in the First Division last season – including 7 in an 8 games spell between February and March – as Dundee bounced back from administration and a 25 point deduction to put together a long unbeaten run but his season was cut short when he was forced to undergo knee surgery.

Higgins career actually started at St. Johnstone but he was unable to make the breakthrough and moved Ross County in 2002 without making a first team appearance for the Saints. He netted his first goal for the Staggies against Ayr United that season and in seven years at Victoria Park went on to make 211 appearances, scoring 56 goals. County fan and respected First Division analysis John Maxwell of the Ross County Tactics blog concurred with McInnes’ assessment of the player, commenting on his great technique and work rate in harassing defenders. Describing how Higgins enjoyed being supporting forward at County rather than leading the line, John suggested  Higgins was better with a focal point to play off and that Micheal Moffat would be an ideal strike partner for Higgins, Moff’s pace forcing defences to sit deeper thus giving ‘Higgy’ more space. 

Parker: hopefully toasting success again in May

Another player with pace, is Keigan Parker. Now 29, Parker’s career has taken somewhat of a tumble down the English leagues in recent years since his departure from Blackpool in 2007. Like Higgins, Parker started his career at St. Johnstone where he made 144 appearances between 1998 and 2004, scoring 25 goals and never really cementing a regular starting spot despite his promise. Colin Hendry took Parker south to Blackpool on a free transfer in June 2004, his first signing in a short tenure in the Bloomfield Road hotseat. Parker netted 41 goals in 3 seasons with the Seasiders, including two memorable strikes in the 2007 League One play-offs versus Oldham and Yeovil in the final as Blackpool clinched promotion to the Championship. That Wembley play-off goal was to be Parker's last for the Club, however, as he failed to earn a regular start in the Championship and was released by manager Simon Grayson at the end of the season 2007/08.

In the three seasons following, short lived spells at Huddersfield, Hartlepool, Oldham Athletic, Bury, Mansfield Town and FleetwoodTown reaped 11 goals in 93 games and plenty of motorway miles. Parker started this season at Blue Square Premier side Stockport County but was at the Cheshire club for only a month, making just one substitute appearance under boss Dietmar Hamman. The reason for his abrupt departure unknown, in September Parker signed for Evo-Stick Division One North side AFC Fylde. The standard of the second tier of the Northern Premier League – the 8th tier of English football – is anyone’s guess but Parker has netted 13 times in 28 appearances for Fylde this season, helping them to the top of the table and impressed in a recent bounce game for Partick Thistle. Boss Jackie McNamara told the Glaswegian newspaper: "Keigan played in a bounce match for us this week and did well. He is a player I have always rated but there's just no money to sign him. He is quick and scores goals and is a good age but unfortunately we won't be able to bring him in at this stage."

Parker’s last goal for Fylde can on the 14th January in a 7-0 win over Harrogate Railway in front of 321 fans and he leaves Lancashire with the best wishes of manager Dave Challinor, the original Rory Delap. Challinor told Fylde’s website: “Keigan has actively been looking to re-locate to Scotland…it’s an opportunity for him to start again. He’s still 29 and should now be in the prime of his career – he just needs to continue to work hard and get his head down to revive his career”. The striker himself said: “It’s a great chance for a fresh start back in Scotland for me and I am looking forward to it.”

There is no doubt the Brian Reid is taking somewhat of a risk bringing Parker back north, but I think any comparisons with another journeyman striker – Junior Mendes will prove to be wide of the mark. Mendes signed for Ayr in November 2009 at the age of 33 and having retired from the game that summer and was arguably never fit. Parker on the other hand has been playing regularly this season and banging the goals in, albeit in a successful team at a fairly low level of English football. There aren’t too many strikers in the First Division that were playing at Championship level just 4 years ago and if, as David Challinor says Parker can ‘get his head down’ he could prove to be a gamble well worth taking.  At 29, time is still on his side. 

I would be surprised if Higgins and Parker don’t form Brian Reid’s chosen strike partnership and the evidence suggests they could be successful pairing. Higgins appears hungry to get back playing, Parker to resurrect his career in Scotland.  But Ayr also also have options in abundance if injury or lack of form strike.  Providing Reid utilises his striking options wisely, and boldly, the Honest Men have all the tools they could hope to have to score the goals that will secure their First Division status.

Very superstitious... but writing not yet on the wall

If you were to list Brian Reid's top managerial attributes its unlikely that 'tactical nous' would be top of the list. That's not to say he is a bad manager but like Mike Bassett, England Manager its a strict "four, four, f**king two" as far as Reid is concerned.

In an age where live football from across the globe is available 24/7, managers line up their 10 outfield players in all manner of formations and where a whole new generation of experts (no, not your Hansens, Lawrensons and Shearers on the Match of the Day sofa) are blogging about false No. 9s and dissecting the finest detail of the game, supporters now more than ever are armed with the knowledge (or think they are) to question the tactical status quo. Added to the minor idiosyncrasies of Ayr United under Reid; the endless goals conceded from crosses, an inability to retain possession at throw ins and the incessant quick free-kick routines that squander possession and territory endlessly and it suggests a manager unwilling - or unable - to adapt and, perhaps, tactically naive?

So, it was something of a departure, although not entirely alien, that Brian Reid lined his side up with just one up front for the League Cup visit of SPL side Hearts last Wednesday. That one, Gareth Wardlaw, led the line masterfully, harrying the Jambo's defence, winning the ball in the air, holding it up. Supported by Alan Trouten, as the forwardmost midfielder in a central three and, when they could, widemen Michael Moffat and Michael McGowan, it was an approach that succeeded ultimately. Ayr saw the best of Wardlaw, and perhaps also Trouten, with the former's perseverance leading to the Honest Men's equaliser, as he pounced on a mistake by Zaliukis.

The formation of 451 (or 4411) suited Ayr's game plan in a match where they were generally expected to lose. Hearts passing game in the middle of the park was disrupted, and their back four were often left without an easy short ball, leading to them increasingly having to look long and losing possession as Ayr's back line, in particular Chris Smith, dealt with the largely impotent John Sutton (Cuthburt's fingertip save down to his left in the first half apart).

Initially, things did look ominous. In the 30 minutes or so Ayr couldn't get out of their half. Pinned back by Hearts and the conditions, with their wide men Novikovas and Templeton threatening, there was no out ball and Wardlaw cut a distant figure. However, as United grew in confidence, spurred by a fine defensive performance from Jonathan Tiffoney in the right full back slot, the plan started to work. Wardlaw was holding the long(er) ball up to him, hassling and harrying - Moffat, McGowan and Trouten were providing support while McKernan and Geggan ensured Ayr remained solid in front of the back four.  That provided the platform for a performance full of effort and endeavour which more than matched their SPL opponents, a few of whom (Rudi Skacel) looked like they'd rather be anywhere than a rain lashed Somerset Park.  Add to that some good fortune in Hearts' disallowed goal and Zaliukis' slip and the Honest Men deserved their spot kick win, not least for the composure in which the penalties were dispatched.  When Marko stepped up for number four there was little doubt the old ground would be witnessing another famous 'shock'.

Fast forward to Saturday and the visit of Queen of the South. Two points adrift of four teams - including Queens - on seven points at the foot of the table there was a sense this was a 'must win' game. Or at least a 'must not lose'. Getting cut adrift at the foot of the table this early season would be ominous not to mention harsh given the player's endeavour and performances so far.  Gus McPherson's side came into the game having beaten the First Division league leaders in consecutive weeks at Palmerston, including a 4-1 thumping of Greenock Morton just seven days on from Morton inflicting the same result on United. However, Ayrshire rivals Kilmarnock had done Ayr a favour as they demolished Queens 5-0 at Rugby Park a day prior to Ayr's cup heroics. For 60 minutes the Dumfries side - down to 10 men following the sending-off of striker Kevin Smith for an elbow on Leon Panikvar - had been given the run-a-round on a moral sapping evening. Despite conceding 8 goals in two games and slumping to the bottom of the league it was Ayr that went into the game on a high.

Ayr United were without Wednesday's one man up front Gareth Wardlaw with a knee injury but despite lacking an obvious like-for-like replacement Brian Reid decided again to line up 451. Reid is known to be a superstitious manager.  From the combination of black or white shirts, shorts and socks, to his place in the Stand for the Ramsdens Cup run this season, if it worked in the previous game Reid will seek to keep everything the same the following week. But tactically? With a key component of the game plan unavailable?   Ultimately, Ayr earned three important points - but only after a struggle - and Roddy Paterson joining Wardlaw's replacement Mark Roberts up front and United reverting to 442.

This isn't a traditionalist 'you must play two up front at home' concern. Or based on a misunderstanding that one up front is necessarily defensive, but an observation that without Wardlaw, we simply don't have the personnel to go one up front. Sure, Mark Roberts has the clever feet and experience - but he doesn't have the physicality to plough the lone furrow on his own. Against a centre-half partnership of Mark Campbell and Ryan McGuffie it was always going to be a tough ask.

I've no doubt that a departure from 442 to more defensive formation - like we did against Hearts - can serve United well this season, especially on the road.  Indeed, at Dundee, it was notable that Mark Roberts was playing a deeper role, although again a lack of mobility saw him almost stranded between the midfield and Wardlaw up-front at times. But it has to be applied on the basis of the opposition and the players at Brian Reid's disposal - not what worked well last time out.  Another end of season collapse, with Brian Reid floundering for a formula that works, will see the writing on the wall for his managerial career.  Reid's tactics need to start convincing.

Meanwhile, here's Stevie Wonder...

Cream crackered with Scottish football?

"Listen, I like cream crackers. But if I ate them every day for a month I'd soon be sick of them.

"On the other hand, if I went a month without them and then ate just one I'd probably think it was the best cream cracker I'd ever tasted".

Brian Reid, Daily Record, 23/09/2011

A mid-week of cup shocks - with holders Rangers, Hearts and Aberdeen falling to SFL clubs - has seen Falkirk boss Steven Pressley renew his calls for an extended top flight. The former Rangers, Celtic and Hearts defender has been consistent, at least since Falkirk's financial woes began to really hit home, that the SPL should expand to 16, 18 or even 20 teams.  Brian Reid has also added his voice in favour, with a excellent analogy about square savoury biscuits.

Rarely in Scottish football, a lot of fans agree with Pressley. Supporters Direct Scotland's survey of fans at the end on 2010 showed a massive majority of supporters want bigger leagues. Almost 50% of the 5000 punters who responded plucked for 16 teams. 27% for 18. Only 13% said they wanted a top flight of 10 or 12 sides.  The message from Scottish football's 'customers' is clear. They want change, they don't want to play the same sides four times a season. And - although just one factor - its starting to show in attendances up and down the country.

But, the message from Neil Doncaster has been unequivocal.  It isn't a choice between 10 or 16 (or 14 or 18) teams because a larger league - crucially in which the Old Firm would only play twice - simply isn't an option as it's TV money that the SPL dances to the tune of, not the 10s of 1000s that go through the turnstyles every weekend (or, increasingly don't).


The arguments in many respects have been put on the back burner. There has been little debate until today  and with a lack of consensus the plans for a reduced SPL have been scrapped. But, the impetus for change remains.  A bigger SPL won't cure all Scotland's problems.  It won't make ticket prices cheaper and fans won't necessarily come flooding back.  Our youngsters won't suddenly become world-class and our club and national sides won't necessarily take Europe by storm.  But the results on Tuesday and Wednesday add increasing legitimacy to calls for a radical change.  Simply put, maybe its time the game at the top level stopped obsessing with 'bumper TV deals' and spending cash on foreign duds and instead listen to fans, cut gate prices and gave young Scottish talent a chance.  Like Falkirk have.

Also...

Keep an eye the excellent changingscottishfootball.net blog for intelligent and informed opinion on the campaign for supporters to have a greater say in the future of the Scottish game and on league reconstruction  Maybe, just maybe, one day the decision makers will listen...

[Archive] Will the Lions learn?

Here's a blog post I wrote back in May about the team Ayr fans loves to hate, Livingston. Not the normal sort of thing that will appear on @albinoanaconda, but a roundabout way of summarising last season's Second Division campaign. And subtly getting the boot stuck into Livi.  The lads at the Terrace Football Podcast were good enough to publish - their weekly programme is well worth a listen.

It was an underwhelming title win.  Less than 400 fans travelled the forty-or-so minutes to see it confirmed at Stenhousemuir, around a thousand more saw the trophy lifted at Almondvale.  Underwhelming not because Livingston weren’t the best side in the Second Division this season, but because of its sheer inevitability.  Favourites from the start, closest challengers Ayr United had the opportunity at the start of February to make it interesting and close to gap to one point with a game in hand – but a 3-0 win for the Lions at Somerset Park, on the back of a 2-0 victory versus Brechin City the previous week, started the procession as full-time Livi continued a run of 14 games between mid-January and the end of March where they dropped just two points.

While Livingston powered to the title, the cup exploits and weather-enforced schedule imposed on Ayr and Brechin took its toll.  The Honest Men lost six of their seven fixtures re-arranged for midweek, the win ironically coming against a Brechin side who almost contrived to throw away even a play-off spot as memories of their thrilling quarter-final tie at Glebe Park versus St. Johnstone faded fast.

Livingston’s response to their title?  Their consecutive promotions were the ‘fault’ of the short-sighted SFL Chairmen that condemned them to the bottom tier of Scottish football in 2009, and that clubs like Ayr had now ‘paid’ for their decision.  But who was paying  for Livingston’s rapid rise through the lower reaches of Scottish football?   At the time when Stirling Albion have announced Jocky Scott’s budget in the Second Division will be £120,000, Livingston Chief Executive Ged Nixon admitted Livi’s season in the Third Division cost them £1.2 million. 

Only now as preparations begin for life in the First Division do Livingston, according to Nixon, have the opportunity to start making steps toward living within their financial means, a clear admission that maintaining a full time squad in the Third and Second Division was never sustainable.  Livingston have in effect responded to their punishment for going into administration – for a second time – by continuing the practices that got them into trouble in the first (and second) place.  

Livingston’s justification for this approach again points the finger at the SFL.  Their side of the story is that in August 2009 the League asked the new Board at Almondvale to honour all the playing contracts at the club – or they would have to resign their position in the league.  Livingston agreed on the understanding they would be kicking-off in the First Division that weekend. Then they were demoted to the Third Division. 

So while administration and relegation, on the face of it, provided Livingston with the perfect opportunity to begin the process of balancing the books, they in fact couldn’t.  They had commitments.  The SFL, the clubs they would steamroller on during their two year ‘delay’ in the Third and Second Divisions, had forced them into it.  What this doesn’t explain is the post-administration and demotion recruitment of Tony Bullock, David Cowan, Robbie Winters, Kenny Deuchar and Iain Russell.  All players who would walk into any lower-league side able to offer full time football and a decent wage. 

While the terms of the investment made by their new Board of Directors to get Livingston (back) to where they are is unclear,  the gamble – be it necessitated by the SFL or otherwise – has paid off.  Livingston, according to Nixon, will be one of the most financially stable clubs in the First Division and alongside Queen of the South, Dundee and Falkirk he may well be right.  But there will remain a doubt – especially amongst those supporters of teams whose clubs, rather than Livingston, have paid for their previous misdemeanours – whether Livingston can compete in the First Division while balancing the books, something which may be a rarity in Scottish football but Livingston have specialised in taking to the extreme. The evidence of their promotion back to the First Division, and the signings that have helped them get there, would suggest not.