Five things learnt from pre-season

Pre-season. Every year I resolve not to bother. Somerset Park can seem a long way and £10 can seem a lot of money to see a kick about. The resolve never lasts, however, and the pre-season optimism and intrigue over new players takes over. Managers will tell you that pre-season games are not about results and all about match fitness but new gaffer Mark Roberts was also keen to use the series of five games to work on the team’s shape and style of play, which has already seen a radical overhaul.

It can be dangerous to read too much into pre-season but the Honest Men can be reasonably pleased with their endeavours, drawing one-each with Queen’s Park, a full strength Bolton Wanderers side and Irish hatchetmen Glentoran. A thumping 4-0 win over Champions League-bound Motherwell had heads turning while a 4-1 defeat versus Partick Thistle reflected the number of youngsters and trialists on show, with Roberts resting most of his main men.

Notwithstanding (well, ignoring) the main caveats: what did we learn from United’s pre-season?:

Starting XI

Unlike pre-seasons of the recent past, United have fielded a fairly settled line-up and used only a limited number of trialists, with the exception of the Partick Thistle game. Goalkeeper Ally Brown and the Jonathan Tiffoney were the only players not involved in the opening fixture at Lesser Hampden. Former Stenhousemuir goalkeeper Brown featured as a second-half substitute in Ayr’s second game against Motherwell and has kept the No. 1 jersey since (and subsequently signed) while Tiffoney returned to action in the penultimate game versus Bolton.

This continuity of selection should stand the side in good stead when the action starts for real on Saturday. Barring injury the side to face East Stirlingshire is likely to line-up:

Brown

Tiffoney   J. Robertson   Brownlie  McCann

Merenghi   Sinclair   McStay   Shankland

R. Robertson   Moffat

Otherwise, Martyn Campbell has the biggest claim to be involved in place of Brownlie but Ochilview’s artificial surface may be the deciding factor in Marko’s decision. Also, there is some confusion regarding Tiffoney’s future. Dundee, apparently, remain interested but unwilling to pay a fee for the 20 year-old. It may be that John Robertson plays at right-back with Campbell and Brownlie pairing up in the centre.

Squad

Beyond the starting eleven, pre-season has shown Ayr’s squad to be fairly limited in numbers. Add Martyn Campbell and the manager himself to the eleven listed above and that’s it in terms of ‘senior’ squad members. Roddy Paterson and Robbie Crawford head the list of U19s that can be expected to be involved, while defender Alan Murdoch has also featured.

Of the trialists used but not signed, David Winters, Paul Harkins and Grant Mosson were given limited game time and mostly failed to impress. Unfortunately for Micheal McGowan, and for Ayr, his appearance as a trialist lasted only 5 minutes before he succumbed to a reoccurrence of the knee injury picked up at the end of last season. McGowan has claimed it not to be serious – and he scored in a ‘Reserve’ game against Cumnock on Wednesday night – but Mark Roberts cannot afford to offer the winger a deal until he’s certain he’s fully fit.

Congolese-born forward Joel Kasubandi remains an option but injury prevented him taking part in the final pre-season game. Somewhat of a wildcard, the speedy19 year-old and could be utilised on the left or up-front thus providing cover for Moffat and Shankland but this would seem to knock Roddy Paterson down the pecking order. Roberts will have to be sure Kasubandi will: a) fit into his vision for the side and b) provides something he doesn’t already posses amongst the U19 squad before gambling on the player released by Morton.

The financial uncertainly following the ongoing fallout from the Rangers saga may have lead to the re-evaluation of Roberts’ budget or Marko could be playing the waiting game to see who he can pick up in August and September but it seems certain that some reinforcements will be required.

Style

It has been clear from the off that Roberts wants his side to play a different way than under Brian Reid. This is also reflected in the players who he has brought to the club. Reid favoured a fairly defensive back-four where the full-backs we’re encouraged to get forward and in midfield the emphasis was primarily on carrying the ball forward, with the likes of McGowan, Trouten, Geggan and the out-of-position Moffat preferring to run with the ball rather than pass it.

The new look Honest Men have instead looked, first and foremost, to pass the ball, short and at speed. New midfielders David Sinclair, Ryan McStay and Antony Merenghi all look comfortable with the ball at feet with Sinclair adopting the ‘quarterback’ role of taking the ball deep from the defence and distributing it forward. With a relatively narrow midfield – there are no natural wingers – the full-backs have been encouraged to push forward, with the nominal left and right midfielders providing cover. This was shown to good effect with Tiffoney’s role in the equaliser against Bolton, where, receiving the ball from Roberts he burst past the Bolton full-back and defender to cross the ball to Roberts around the penalty spot.

Up front, Roberts has returned Micheal Moffat to his rightful position and put his faith in Ross Robertson. Brian Reid saw Robertson as a centre-back, used him there and in midfield but Marko has seen enough to convince him the 21 year-old can lead the attack. While it may take time for ‘Rossco’ to adjust to the role, what he lacks in touch he more than makes up for in his ability to occupy defences with his strength and aerial prowess. Too often in recent seasons opposition defenders have been given an easy time of it by Ayr’s attack and hopefully Robertson can address this. Robertson provides the ‘big man up front’ option missing from Ayr teams for a long time but I don’t expect Marko will be keen to see long balls being played from back to front. As a target man, however, there are signs that Robertson could prove a useful foil for a hopefully rejuvenated Moffat.

Going from ‘up against it’ in the First Division to among the title favourites in the Second was always going to necessitate a switch in approach that would see Ayr more comfortable on the front foot. Under Reid, last time out in the Second Division, United never looked to be comfortable favourites and rarely dominated games. Hopefully playing a more possession oriented game will prove not only more effective but also more attractive on the eye. The key to turning possession in to goals will be using Moffat’s pace to run at defenders and to exploit space behind opposition defences.

Shankland

 

The highlight of pre-season has been the emergence of Mark Shankland. Roberts has talked up the Mauchline kid almost since the day he took over and the youngster – who only turned 17 two weeks ago – is sure to play a big part this season on the evidence of pre-season.

 

Used primarily on the left of midfield, Shankland also played behind a front two (Moffat and Roberts) in the Queen’s Park game and Roberts has stated he can play anywhere across midfield or up-front. Shankland possesses fantastic technique and composure on the ball. His weight of pass is exquisite and he isn’t afraid to take on his man or to take a shot.

 

Why we didn’t see more of Shankland under Reid remains a mystery but this could now be his time to shine.

 

Suspect

 

(OK, I was struggling for a fifth ‘S’…) The biggest cause for concern on the park has been the number of free headers given up at corners and free-kicks. This very specific thing has been a long-running Achilles heal of United. There has been much debate surrounding Campbell at the start of what will be his seventh season at Somerset Park. Campbell’s strengths and weaknesses are fairly plain to see. He isn’t going to look comfortable with the goalkeeper rolling the ball out to him short, but at the same time up against a burly target man, few get the better of the now 31-year old defender as evidenced by his performances against Motherwell’s Michael Higdon and England International Kevin Davies. Then there are the inevitable question marks over his fitness. ‘Bobo’ managed only 15 appearances last season and Ayr had a fairly rotten record when he did start.

 

The jury is still out on keeper Ally Brown also. He doesn’t come with glowing recommendations from supporters of previous clubs and in pre-season has looked unsure when going for balls played into the box. If the defence can prove itself to be be solid and reliable then the side should have an excellent platform for playing the type of game Roberts wants.

 

To finish on a negative would be entirely inconsistent with the overall feeling around club about the new season. Fairly natural at the start of any season you could say, but in Mark Roberts we have a manger committed to entertaining the supporters with attacking and attractive football and that is to be welcomed. As usual, I’m sure it will be a rollercoaster season.

Progression not punishment most important as Scottish football faces up to newco Rangers

After four months in administration, the reformation of Rangers FC is now a certainty following Her Majesty’s Revenue & Customs rejection of a company voluntary arrangement aimed at saving the 140 year-old club. The corporate entity which is The Rangers Football Club plc will be liquidated and new company created.  

Scottish football is left with a monumental decision to make and with the fixture list to be published on Monday and the SPL season due to kick-off on the 4^th August, the time for delay, avoidance and excuses for reconvening at a later date is over. A decision must be made now - what fate the newco Rangers?

There is the understandable clamour for Rangers to be punished beyond those self-inflicted consequences of their mismanagement. It is unpalatable for most that ‘new’ Rangers could continue, free from the burden of debt and sporting sanction, to compete at the top of the SPL. The most obvious sentence appears to be ‘relegation’ to the Third Division.  More accurately this would involve the SPL refusing to transfer Rangers’ share to the newco and its subsequent application and election to the SFL. This would satisfy the appetite for ‘sporting justice’ for the Ibrox club’s substantial misdemeanours, notwithstanding the claims of other clubs, such as Cove Rangers and Spartans, who may also wish election to the SFL.

On the other hand, there is the uncertainty – the fear within Boardrooms across the SPL – over what the future holds without Rangers. Specifically, how it will it affect the bottom line. There seems to be nervousness amongst SPL clubs, including Celtic despite previous claims, that they would be unable to survive without the contribution made by Rangers to collective television and sponsorship revenues and individual gate receipts. 

It is easy to misconstrue the opinions expressed online, on forums such as Pie & Bovril, as representing the majority of football fans but it is clear that supporters of all clubs (perhaps even including Rangers) are against allowing newco Rangers to continue in the SPL.  Surveys show opposition running as high as 95%, with talk of boycotts should Rangers be allowed to continue in the SPL.  Now the failure of the CVA has been confirmed, chairmen are left with a decision they did not want to make and run the risk of alienating (possibly even losing) their supporters.

The consequences of not punishing Rangers are often played out, less so the consequences of their punishment.  Rangers starting again in the SFL may be the right punishment for Rangers, but is it the right punishment for Scottish football and for clubs like Peterhead, Stranraer and Queen’s Park?

You cannot escape the fact that the popularity of Rangers (and Celtic) – not only in Scotland but internationally – far exceeds that any other club in Scotland. It is fair to assume that any Phoenix Rangers club would have the resources to return to the SPL in three seasons. Competition within SFL 3, 2 and 1 would be temporarily suspended as the newco freak show undertook a three-season procession back to the SPL.  This cannot be healthy.  We can talk about the sporting integrity of allowing Rangers to continue in the SPL but where is the integrity in a competition only one side can realistically win? If Rangers do kick-off in the Third Division on August 11^th, through no fault of their own, Peterhead, Stranaer etc. are effectively left to scrap it out for a promotion play-off place.

Perhaps the best solution for the game in Scotland is therefore Rangers are suspended from Scottish football next season. This way the club are punished in a manner that is appropriate (and arguably more severe than relegation to the Third Division); the integrity of the SFL is not compromised and it can remain competitive; season 2012/13 can kick-off in August free from the uncertainty of the Rangers situation which seems unlikely to resolved anytime soon and, most importantly, instead of rushing to a short-term fix, significant reform within the game can be considered, agreed and timetabled over the course of next season.

Rather than making an example of Rangers, it is more important that a solution preventing clubs simply reforming as new corporate entities to avoid financial obligations is found through the introduction of stronger regulation. The argument that SFL clubs would benefit financially as newco Rangers worked their inevitable way back to the top? Again, changes to Scottish football that would see a more equitable distribution of revenues would serve the game much better in the long run. If Rangers are simply relegated to the Third Division with no changes to the way Scottish football is regulated and governed it will be travesty. A huge, once in a generation, opportunity missed.

One of Scottish football’s biggest failings throughout this saga has been an entirely ineffective rule book. The fate of newco Rangers should be legislated for, laid out in the statutes in black and white so there could be no uncertainly. Fail to comply with x by y date and z will happen (e.g. demonstrate by the end of May the club’s finances are sound or face demotion). Instead, the SPL and SFA are making it up as they go along, opening themselves up to claims and counter-claims of bias. Simply it is an unedifying disaster.

If Scottish football learns one thing from this debacle it must be that it has to change.  This should not be lost among the fearvount clamber to punish Rangers.

Edited to add: After sharing the main points of this blog post on twitter and few people have asked how suspending Rangers for a season would work in practice. I would consider inviting applications to join the Third Division, with one side joining next season for a minimum of three seasons and another joining the following season - alongside Rangers - for a minimum of two seasons, thus maintaining an even number of teams within the league set-up. Within this three year period I'd like to see the bottom of the Third Division opened up, allowing progressive clubs outside the current league structure to join.

As for the fate of Rangers following their one year suspension, for the reasons stated above, I would be comfortable with them rejoining the top division provided: a) they are able to demonstrate in good time they are vintage position to do so; and b) no further wrongdoing is exposed, bearing in mind the 'Big Tax case' and the SFA's investigation into dual contracts.

"We were so near and yet so far"

Analysing Brian Reid’s tenure at Somerset Park

It was Sheryl Crow who once sang “a change would do you good” while Cat Stevens countered “It's not time to make a change. Just relax, take it easy”.  I can only imagine that the singer-songwriter, multi-instrumentalist and prominent convert to Islam hadn’t accounted for the conclusion of Brian Reid’s 4 years and 205 days in charge at Somerset Park.

Cat Stevens: wrong on this occasion

After a season that was at times odd-defying, claiming no fewer than three SPL scalps on the way to three quarter-finals and a semi-final at the National Stadium, Ayr United were relegated via the play-offs in heartbreaking fashion at Somerset Park by old adversaries Airdrie. In the context of a poor semi-final, first-leg performance at the Excelsior Stadium, where Ayr were lucky to escape with a goalless draw, from the ominous moment 17 year-old Jackson Longridge was sent off just 17 minutes into the second-leg a dark cloud descended over the old ground and a second relegation in three years - and the end of Reid's spell in charge - seemed inevitable.  The news that Ayr United and Reid, at that point the fourth longest serving manager in the country, were to part company came three days later.

The agreement not to renew Reid’s contract was mutual, with both the club and manager looking to take a new direction.  Most fans also agreed his time was up. In a rare insight to the intentions of Chairman Lachlan Cameron, a statement on the official website announced the club’s wishes to place a greater emphasis on the ‘youth pathway to the first team’ and that in view of the ‘changing landscape in Scottish football’ a change had to happen. For Brian Reid’s part, it was time for a fresh challenge.  Seaking to the Ayrshire Post on his departure, Reid said "even if we had stayed up in the First Division, the decision would probably have been the same".  To what degree the budget cuts implicit in the Board’s new direction influenced his decision is open to speculation but it has been suggested he was unhappy.

Farewell Brian.

Assessing Brian Reid's spell in charge at Somerset Park is a difficult task. On paper, two promotions, coupled with relative cup success is a noteworthy achievement for someone who started as a 37 year-old rookie with little coaching experience at a club like Ayr United. But four league campaigns also have to be considered in relative terms and alongside the reasonableness of expectation.  Here, the part-time dynamic is perhaps crucial. While I have previously decried Reid for constantlybeating the part-time drum as an excuse, there can be no doubt that United’s part-time status had a bearing on what Reid has achieved and what he could have been expected to achieve. But it doesn’t tell the full story.

Reid inherited an apparently unhappy dressing room in October 2007 – just 10 league games into the season – after Neil Watt had attempted to recreate his double promotion-winning Stranraer side of 2003/04 and 04/05 but found his methods to be unwelcome. Reid moved quickly to shake up the squad: most of the ‘Stranraer six’ were released (Higgins, Hamilton, Corr, Swift), Micheal Moore was ushered to the sidelines and in came a number short-term loan signings, including Dean Keenan and Willie Easton. Ayr finished the season in 7^th place, the same position they were when Watt resigned.

The players brought to the club during Brian Reid’s first six months in charge – and first close season – demonstrated perhaps Reid’s greatest strength: player recruitment.  Reid proved to be adept at squad building and bringing better players to the club.  He probably leaves in credit when the good signings are balanced against the bad.  The team built – virtually from scratch – to tackle the Second Division in summer 2008, winning promotion via the play-offs best demonstrates this. Stephen Grindlay was an ever present between the posts and was, and still is, a solid goalkeeper; Dempsie, Walker, Campbell and McGowan were a solid back-four.  In midfield, Chris Aitken joined Ryan Stevenson (already at the club) and Keenan and Easton in making over 30 appearances and upfront the scoring prowess of Bryan Prunty and Alex Williams was supplemented by David Gormely and, from January, Mark Roberts.  While, for example, Chris Aitken had his (vocal) detractors, it’s hard to argue that any of the mainstays of that squad recruited by Reid were bad signings. 

Chris Aitken: unpopular but a good signing?

Ayr’s relegation the following season would call into question these credentials. United kicked off their Centenary season with the manager putting faith in the majority of the squad that had won promotion via the play-offs. Defenders Alan Dempsie and Scott Walker were the only regular starters from the previous season released, with Billy Gibson and Andrew Aitken coming in as replacements along with Craig Samson to provide competition to Grindlay.  The less said about David O’Brien’s Ayr United career the better.

The side did not start the season well.  Ayr’s 1-0 at home to Dunfermline at the start of December was just their second of the season and meant they were already six points adrift of 8^th position but two ahead of bottom placed Airdrie.  To Reid’s credit, he had already identified that reinforcements were required and throughout the following months.  Ryan McGowan, Danny Lafferty, Chris Mitchell, Rocky Visconte and Stephen Reynolds and Danny McKay all came in on loan.  Veterans Junior Mendes and Steve Bowey renewed acquaintances with former team-mate Reid and Tam McManus returned from Ireland with the promise of goals.

But it wasn’t enough. Four wins and no defeats in eight games between mid-February and mid-March offered hope.  Ayr jumped out of the relegation places for five weeks and with nine games left to play were on the same points as Morton with a game in hand, and nine ahead of Airdrie – but Ayr finished the season disastrously.  Eight defeats interrupted by a solitary victory at Firhill meant that United finished 10^th, two points behind Airdrie in the play-off position and six behind Morton in, who defeated Ayr in the final game of the season. Three weeks previous, Airdrie United had travelled down to Somerset Park on a Wednesday and left with crushing 4-1 victory which had narrowed the gap to just three points at the foot of the table. It was perhaps the worst performance of Reid’s spell in charge, even worse than the following Saturday when Inverness sealed the title with a 7-0 rout.

This spectacular collapse is a major black mark on Reid’s report card. Failure to beat Raith Rovers to the title the previous season was a disappointment softened by play-off success. Finishing below Airdrie United – the First Division’s only other part-time side – in the manner in which Ayr did was a major failure.

Following relegation Reid was given the opportunity to rebuild once more.  A previous blog post chronicles that season from the perspective of Ayr’s main rivals that season: Livingston.  Two seasons previously, Ayr and Raith competed mainly as equals.  This time round the West Lothian club had an advantage as the Division’s only full-time side. The Honest Men did have the opportunity at the start of February to close the gap between the sides to one point (United having a game in hand) but the Lions won 3-0 and went on to win the title by 23 points.

Ayr were partly undone by a combination of bad weather – just two league games were played between the end of October and start of January – and a Scottish Cup run that saw them reach the quarter-final, defeating Hibs in a replay at Somerset Park on the way. Of the resulting rescheduled fixtures played mid-week, Ayr won just one of six.  Reid’s side fell well short of the standards set in his first full season in charge – earning 15 fewer points, losing over twice as many games – but again the season was redeemed by triumph in the play-offs.  While few United fans present will forget the scenes of jubilation at Glebe Park at full-time, until Mark Roberts grabbed an equaliser with 13 minutes to go it was beginning to look like a lost cause. Such are the fine margins that define Reid’s managerial reign.

In assembling a squad for a second attempt at the First Division survival, Brian Reid again had to go back to the drawing-board. Alan Martin, the former Scotland U21 keeper brought in as Reid quickly realised first choice David Crawford wasn’t up to the job, and central midfield partnership of Ryan McCann and Scott McLaughlin left for full-time football elsewhere. Kevin Cuthbert, Andy Geggan and Micheal McGowan proved to be adequate replacements, and experience was added in the shape of the returning John Robertson and Gareth Wardlaw.     

Reid’s biggest error this season, however, was not bringing another centre-back to the club. Ayr started the season with a back four of John Robertson, Campbell, Smith and Malone but injuries and suspensions meant they started just four league games – and finished just one.  Campbell endured (another) injury hit season, starting only seven league games. A straight replacement for Campbell would have negated the requirement for wholesale defensive changes: full-backs Robertson and Malone, Ross Robertson and even Andy Geggan all stepping in to partner Chris Smith, often weakening other area of the team. Mid-season, Liam Tomsett was an important capture on loan from Blackpool and was a definite upgrade on Alex Burke (perhaps Reid worst signing ever) and Jamie McKernon alongside Andy Geggan in centre midfield. Sean Higgins and Keigan Parker were added as a 4^th and 5^th striker - but no defender.  

Alex Burke: one to forget

The similarities between 2010 and 2012 are striking. With ten games to go, Ayr were in eight place and had been there for four weeks. This time round the gap over the side at the bottom (Queen of the South) was six points and two points ahead of Raith in 9^th. In both seasons Ayr’s 27^th game was away to Raith Rovers and United fans travelled to Kirkcaldy in big numbers. Hopes of First Division safety were raised and then dashed as United conceded last minute equalisers.  Like in 2010, this set back proved to be the catalyst for an end of season collapse. It was the start of three games in quick succession versus relegation rivals, Rovers, Morton and Queen of the South. Brian Reid’s men failed to win any of them: drawing at home to Morton and losing 2-1 away to Queen of the South. Ayr had blown the opportunity to almost secure their safety. Haunted by the spectre of throwing it away again, wins against Livingston and Dundee, thanks to two spectacular goals from Keigan Parker, weren’t enough to avoid the play-off position and Raith and Morton picked up the points required to stay ahead of the Honest Men.

While 9^th position was an improvement on last time in the First Division, particularly in a league where Ayr were the only part-time side, but any sense of achievement was soon to be diminished as Ayr crashed in the play-offs where yet another vital game – ironically again against Airdrie at Somerset Park – was lost. A United team under Brian Reid beaten by a side that was better organised and drilled and looked like they wanted it more.

This brief sojourn through Reid’s four full seasons in charge indicates a number of recurrences: losing vital games at important times of the season; poor end-of-season form and a huge turn over in players from one season to the next, even during seasons. 

The turnover of players partly reflects the state of Scottish football today and Ayr United’s standing – a part-time team somewhere between the First and Second Division. One year deals are the norm and players will inevitably be looking to for full-time contracts. Brian Reid was able to capitalise on the new economics in the game, recruiting decent players such as Eddie Malone, Ryan McCann and Chris Smith who in recent years would have commanded full time football. The criticism can be levelled at Reid, however, that he was always looking to improve his squad through new players rather than on the training ground.  It seemed that the solution (to not scoring goals, particularly) always lay with a new player and the excuses lay in an inability to find someone "better than we already had". 

On the park, a number of failings were evident and persistent.  While I think Brian Reid wanted his side to play 'the right way', they were often strangled by Reid's conservatism. Defensively, his first preference was for full-backs who were first and foremost solid. The likes of Alan Dempsie, Neil McGowan and even Eddie Malone (set-pieces aside) rarely offered anything in an attacking sense. The signature of Jim Lauchlan in Ayr's second promotion season to replace Jonathan Tiffoney typified this.  Forgetting the contribution in attack, defending balls crossed into the box, particularly in set-pieces was a constant short-coming of Reid's sides during his tenure.

Tactically, Reid was a fairly rigid 442 man. As mentioned above a defensive minded back-four left 6 players in attack with whom to grab the goals. But Ayr rarely seemed to click as an attacking force under Reid, other than in his first full season in charge when the team included Prunty, Williams, Gormley and Ryan Stevenson and netted 71 league goals. United's approach to goalscoring seemed ineffective. Often the side was criticised for over playing in attacking situations: 'walking the ball into the net'. While this is somewhat of an Arsenal inspired cliché, its true that last season Ayr heavily relied on set-pieces for goals, with Micheal McGowan responsible for around half Ayr's goals.

When not 442, Reid did go through spells playing 451, mostly in the First Division.  While was largely responsible for Ayr cup success and giant-killing acts in the cups,  it rarely transposed to league success. Instead, it effectively left United impotent, with little opportunity to win games. Reid argued that the system allowed for a 433 in attack, but this rarely materialised.  It was the cause of much frustration and failed to utilised the squad to the best effect (his used of Micheal Moffat on the left-hand side described as criminal by Mark Roberts). Also apparent was Reid's inability to alter his tactics during games to count opponents . All these thing pointed to a manager who could be reasonably described as tactically naive. This may be unfair, but Reid certainly didn't bring a sophistication to his approach. Much like his playing career it was very much 'safety first'. Or negative. 

Another failing of Reid was his reticence to use the talent coming through the club’s own Academy, particularly in favour of untried youngsters on loan. While no-one could argue with the value of some loan signings, for example Liam Tomsett and Ryan McGowan, many will struggle to recall the contribution made by the likes of Paul Willis and David Crawford.  This has been noted by the Board and was clearly a factor in their decision not to offer Reid a new contract.  Whether our Academy players are good enough is another debate – I guess we’re about to find out – but there have been glimpses and reports of great talents, none of whom have been given an opportunity.

Mark Shankland: the future?

In assessing the season just past, Brian Reid told the Ayrshire Post: “We had a small squad and the cup runs probably had an adverse affect on our ability to stay in the First Division.

 “If we had managed to stay up on the back of two good cup runs it would have gone down as one of the club’s best seasons.

“We were so near and yet so far.”

This can pretty much sum up his five years at the club.  So near and yet so far from the title in 2009. So near and yet so far from First Division survival in 2010. So near and yet so far from beating Kilmarnock in the biggest ever Ayrshire derby. So near and yet so far from staying in First Division in 2012. It was reasonable to expect Ayr to win the title in 2009, and to avoid relegation in 2010 and 2012, and they were in good positions to do so each season but, ultimately Brian Reid failed on each occasion. 

In the end, nearly wasn’t good enough. 

Preview: First Division Play-Offs

The lottery of the play-offs they call it and, after 36 games, the fate of one First Division and three Second Division sides now lies on two - or four - games.  For Ayr United, in this end-of-season contest for the third time in four years, the prize is First Division survival. For Arbroath, Dumbarton and Airdrie United its promotion alongside Cowdenbeath to Scotland's second tier.

Play-Off Champions: One year one United are looking for same again.

The bookies make Ayr United favourites but the 9th placed First Division side has not faired well in the play-offs, retaining their status just once in six years. Here is a run-down on the form, key men and play-off records of the contenders:


Ayr United

Season so far: Ayr United have upset the established order this season by finishing above full-time Queen of the South to give themselves the opportunity to make it successive seasons in the First Division for the first time since 2003. Coupled with three SPL scalps en-route to the League Cup semi-final and a Scottish Cup quarter-final, survival would represent a huge achievement for Brian Reid’s side but how will the favourites tag sit?

Form: United finished the season, as is becoming customary, with a number of defeats. Seven in nine games to be precise but wins away to Livingston and at home to Dundee were enough avoid an automatic return to the First Division with a game to spare, having done enough between January and the start of March to open up an advantage over Queen of the South.

Stats: Quite simply United have shipped too many goals this season. Despite eight clean sheets, more than Queen of the South, Hamilton and twice as many as Raith Rovers, 67 goals have been conceded,  3 or more goals on 12 occasions. Injuries (and suspensions) haven't helped and Brian Reid has been forced into using six different centre-back partnerships. Going into the play-offs, John Robertson and Martyn Campbell are injury doubts and, worryingly, Chris Smith has made two or three costly and uncharacteristic errors. 

In their favour, time-after-time, Brian Reid's man have shown tremendous character and a never-say-die attitude: Ayr have clawed back an impressive 17 points from a losing position this season.

Key Men: Former St. Johnstone and Blackpool striker Keigan Parker hasn't set the heather on fire since his return north but two goals of exquisite quality versus Dundee last weekend signalled that the now 29 year-old striker could play a big part in United’s survival hopes. Parker has play-off pedigree – in 2007 he scored Blackpool's second goal in their 2-0 win against Yeovil Town in the League One play-off final at Wembley. 

Keigan Parker: time to shine?

Alongside Parker, ‘keeper Kevin Cuthbert has picked up most of the Player of the Year awards this season and has made very few mistakes and many more terrific saves between the sticks, while the goals of Mark Roberts and Michael Moffat were instrumental in Ayr's success last season. Moffat warmed up with two goals against Falkirk on the final day of the season.

Play-off record: P8, W5, D3, L0, F19, A11 - The Honest Men haven't lost a game in the play-offs, earning promotion to the First Division in 2009 and 2011. Ayr have won all four of their away ties, including decisive second-leg games at Airdrie and Brechin.

Odds: 15/8

Airdrie
Season so far: Airdrie clinched fourth position and the final play-off spot on the last day of the season with their first goalless draw of the season at Champions Cowdenbeath while Stenhousemuir, with whom they were level on points going into game, crashed 2-1 at home to Forfar.  It was only in April that the Diamonds climbed into the top four as they finished strongly as others faltered.

Form: So often its the form side that is the the most dangerous going into the play-offs and that accolade is undoubtedly Airdrie United's. The Diamonds have lost just one game since 25th February, a run of 11 games that has earned 24 points.

Stats: One statistics stands out for Airdrie and its their disciplinary record. Jimmy Boyle's men have picked up 12 red and 77 yellow cards this season, the worst record in Scotland.  Ayr United travel to Lanarkshire on Wednesday night in the first-leg of the semi-final and will do well to prevent the hosts scoring.  Airdrie have found the net 43 times in 18 home games this season and have only failed to score at New Broomfield once.

Key Men: The Airdrie squad has a good mix of youth and experience. David Lilley and Paul Lovering - injuries permitting - will marshal the defence while big Derek Holmes will be a handful up-front but Airdrie's biggest danger man is likely to be Holmes strike partner, Ryan Donnelly. The highly rated 20 year-old is the Second Division's top goalscorer with 27 goals (non of which have come from the penalty spot).  Donnelly is described by preeminent SFL blogger Craig Telfer in an article for the two unfortunates blog as "a deft and instinctive finisher, [who] displays intelligent positioning and movement in and around the penalty area." and "strong on both feet and a potent threat in the air".  Donnelly has been less prolific since the turn of the year, with three goals in his last 12 appearances compared to 13 goals in the 12 games previous.

Ryan Donnelly: can he recapture his early season goalscoring form?

Play-off record: P14 W5 D3 L6 F22 A18 - Airdrie have a disastrous play-off record and hold the unwanted distinction of losing three consecutive First Division play-off finals. They were relegated from the First Division via the play-offs in 2007, lost to Clyde in the final the following year but benefited from the demise of Gretna to go up. In 2009, Livingston's demotion to the third Division saved the Diamonds again after play-off final defeat to Ayr United.  Their fourth play-off appearance in 2010 finally saw them relegated to the Second Division when Brechin City defeated them at the semi-final stage. 

Odds: 10/3

Arbroath
Season so far: Managed by former Ayr United midfielder Paul Sheerin, Arbroath unfurled their first Championship flag in their 133-year history at Gayfield on the opening day of this season and went on to hammer fellow Second Division new boys Albion Rovers 6-2. Despite losing their next game away to Stenhousemuir, that result was typical of an impressive start to the season for the Red Lichties which reaped 18 points from their first seven games and saw them find the net 23 times. Unfortunately for Sheerin and his side, Cowdenbeath also started the season well and before the first quarter of the season was out it was the Fife side who topped the table, with Arbroath second and it was to remain that way for the rest of the season.

Arbroath fans, including a man in Speedos, celebrate promotion

Form: Arbroath's form has tailed off at the end of the season, with only three wins in their last 11 games.  A 3-2 victory at Central Park at the start of April narrowed the gap to three points with four games to play but ultimately merely delayed Cowdenbeath's title celebrations - Arbroath took just a point from their next two games as the Blue Brazil took six. The following week, Sheerin described his side's defeat at home to Stenhousemuir as "the worst performance I've been involved in since I've been at the club"

Stats: The Red Lichties have averaged over two goals per game this season, netting 76 times in 36 games, eight more than Champions Cowdenbeath. At the other end, they've conceded too many goals (51) and kept only 6 clean sheets.

Key Men: Arbroath strength is in the midfield.  At the age of 37, player-manager Paul Sheerin can still pick a pass with one of the finest left foots to grace Scotland in recent years, as can former Motherwell, Hibs and Scotland (albeit under the Vogts era...) midfielder Brain Kerr and the diminutive 21 year-old Josh Falkingham, who would surely be playing at a higher level if he was a few inches taller. In front of that trio, neither Steven Doris and Gavin Swankie are out-and-out strikers but have an incredible 72 goals between them in the last two seasons.

Play-off record: P12, W3, D4, L5, F13, A13 - The Angus side have enjoyed both success and failure in four Second Division play-off campaigns. Defeated at the semi-final stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07 it was third time lucky the following season with aggregate victories over Cowdenbeath (after extra-time) and Stranraer earning promotion in 2008.

Two years later and it was back to the Third Division football as Arbroath were relegated via the play-offs, losing out 2-0 in the final to Angus rivals Forfar at Station Park after the first leg at Gayfield ended goalless.

Odds: 5/2

Dumbarton

Season so far: Dumbarton secured their highest finish in the league since 2004 – and a play-off spot – in their penultimate game of the regular season and will be looking to reach the second tier of Scottish football for the first time since 1996. The Sons can look towards a ten-game unbeaten run comprising 8 wins and 2 draws at the turn of the year which helped establish the side’s play-off credentials after what is fast becoming a trademark slow start to the season. The Sons ended the first round of nine fixtures in seventh position and were shipping an average of 2.55 goals per game but, despite a dismal March which brought only four points from 6 games (and saw 14 goals conceded), Dumbarton looked comfortable in third spot since mid-February.  

Form: Ended the season with three wins to finish six points clear of fourth placed Airdrie United.

Stats: Not only have Dumbarton been slow starters over the course of the season, Adamson's men have generally been slow starters in matches. Their first-half record is ranked 8th in the Second Division - they have been leading after 45 minutes on just eight occasions meaning they have required some pretty big second periods to earn their seventeen league wins.

Key Men: Former Ayr United duo Bryan Prunty and Scott Agnew are Dumbarton’s top goalscorers this season with 14 and 12 goals respectively. A striker that thrives on confidence, Prunty scored 18 goals in 2008/09 and his goalscoring seems to come in bursts: seven in 10 games during Dumbarton's purple patch but only one in nine since the start of March. Agnew was more of a peripheral figure during his time at Somerset Park but regular football, at Stranraer and then Dumbarton this season, has seen the playmaker become an integral player more than capable of getting his name on the scoresheet. The Sons will be a big danger at set-pieces with his dead ball prowess.  And what about former Kilmarnock striker Craig Dargo? He scored a hat-trick on the final day of the season and would surely love to exorcise the demons of that penalty miss at the Somerset Road in 2001.

Craig Dargo. Surely not?

Play-off record: This will be Dumbarton’s first foray into the end-of-season play-offs.

Odds: 3/1

Welcome the new Hibs. Same as the old Hibs?

The ball was fired into the box by Andy Rodgers. It looped into the air and Mark Roberts controlled it with his left foot. Shifted on to his right, then his left. His right again. And then again on to his left before sending a curling shot along the ground past Graeme Smith. Typical Marko. 417 days later Hibs return to Somerset Park desperately looking to avoid a repeat. This time they'll meet a stronger Ayr United side, a Division higher and on a rich vein of form having won three games in fourteen days to lift themselves of the foot of the First Division. But what can we expect from a new look Hibs side and are they set to go the same way as Inverness, city-rivals Hearts and St. Mirren this season? 

Pat Fenlon has undertaken a radical overhaul of the Hibs squad since replacing Colin Calderwood at the end of November, recruiting no fewer than eight new players. Indeed, the Hibs side that lines-up at Somerset Park tomorrow will bare no resemblance to the one that crashed out of the competition to the Honest Men last season, with all but two of the starting line-up that night having departed Easter Road.

Fenlon’s new recruits represent a mixed bag of future prospects, former prospects and unknown foreign quantities. A leaky defence has been replenished with 20-year old full backs Matt Doherty and George Francomb on loan from Wolves and Norwich respectively and James McPake, borrowed from Coventry City until the end of the season. Given the captain’s armband in the continued absence of Ian Murray, McPake started his career at Livingston alongside the likes of Robert Snodgrass and Graeme Dorrans but the 27 year old has failed to make the same impact south of the border as his Almondvale alumni, making 39 appearances in two-and-a-half season for the Midlands club. Also added to the equation is the ‘Gambian Roberto Carlos’, Pa Saikou Kujabi.

The Hibs defence, however, remains suspect, looking non-too clever in conceding four against Motherwell and five against Celtic in recent weeks. Goalkeeper Graham Stack came in for particular criticism for his display against a Celtic side admittedly at the top of their game.

In midfield, Hibs have added Honduran internationalist Jorge Claros, who was shot in the head last year during an attempted carjacking. Nicknamed ‘The Pitbull’, Claros and the formidable presence of Isaiah Osbourne will most likely carry out the graft for the Hibees in the middle of the park, although Claros is much more than a destroyer and can pick out a pass and is comfortable on the ball. Fenlon’s more attacking options in midfield include home-grown talents David Wotherspoon and Louis Stevenson and another player on-loan from the English Premiership, Tom Soares. Opening his Hibs account with two goals versus Kilmarnock at Rugby Park a fortnight ago, Soares was a promising youngster coming through the ranks with Crystal Palace and earned four England U21 caps. In 2008 he moved to newly-promoted Stoke City in a £1.25 million deal but has made only seven Premier League appearances. Ominously for Hibs, loan spells at Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday have ended with both sides being relegated.

Hibs under Colin Calderwood were heavily reliant on Garry O’Connor for goals, with the former Scotland interationalist netting seven of the Leith side’s first 11 league goals. Since October however, the goals have dried up for O’Connor as a persistent ankle injury has taken its toll. Leigh Griffiths – when not gesticulating at his own supporters – has weighed in with seven but Hibs haven’t been prolific, scoring 15 goals in 14 league games under Fenlon and have failed to find the net in five of their last seven games.

If O’Connor is not deemed fit enough to start on Saturday, yet another on-loan player Roy O’Donovan is likely to get the nod. Signed by Roy Keane in 2007 from Cork City – where he had an impressive strike-rate of 31 goals in 76 games – he spent much of his Sunderland career out on loan, including at Dundee United in 2008 before signing for Coventry in June 2010. A more recent recruit to from the League or Ireland Eion Doyle is also an option, and has already netted two Scottish Cup goals this season against Cowdenbeath and the winner against Kilmarnock in the last round.

Building virtually a new team in a matter of months was never going to be easy but any improvement in Hibs’ fortunes under Fenlon hasn’t manifest itself in results. While Colin Calderwood blundered his way to 14 points from 15 games at the start of the season, Fenlon has added just nine from his 14 games. Hibs now sit in 11th in the SPL, two points ahead of Dunfermline – that’s no bigger an advantage than when Fenlon took over Hibs, then placed 9th. Additional victories have come in the Scottish Cup: at Cowdenbeath – where they conceded after just 30 seconds but went on to win 3-2 – and 1-0 at home to Kilmarnock but Fenlon shouldn’t take too much heart from a job professionally done at Central Park as he faces another ‘tricky tie’.

Brian Reid’s approach to the game will be intriguing. Will he stick with the same side and formation that has served him so well over the past thirteen days? Or will he revert to the tried and tested 451 approach that has seen Ayr knock out three SPL sides this season and run a fourth very close? It seems likely that it will be same again for United for two key reasons. Firstly: Reid's midfield options are limited. Alan Trouten is struggling with both hamstrings and is unlikely to be fit, Jamie McKernon and Ross Robertson are no-more than bit part players and lack the experience or quality you feel to come into a game like this. Secondly: it would mean breaking up the Parker-Roberts partnership upfront. Parker could do a job upfront on his own and is a willing runner now up to full speed but his pairing with Roberts looks to be mutually beneficial, making the most of the class both players posses.

So, Ayr’s approach to the game is likely to be far more positive than in recent encounters with SPL sides, through necessity and form. It will be important that the front two, along with Moffat and McGowan wide press the Hibernian defence and full backs. Tomsett and Geggan – at the centre of United’s marked improvement in recent weeks in every respect – will have to be at their best, harrying, hustling and denying Hibs easy time on the ball. This area could be a concern for United, not in terms of the performance we can expect from Tomsett and Geggan but that Hibs lack real width (unless Ivan Sproule is given an unexpected start) and therefore could have a numerical advantage in the middle of the park. That lack of width is perhaps a good thing with Ayr's young full backs Jonathan Tiffoney and Adam Dodd potentially the weak links in an already makeshift back four.

Judging by the media coverage in the run up to the game emanating from Easter Road, Hibs seem to be pinning a lot of  hopes on just not being that side defeated 14 months ago and that they came through that Cowdenbeath game.  But Somerset Park will be a different proposition and its not often a Second Division side knocks out one from the SPL (last year excepted, of course).  Ayr fans have first hand experience that hastily assembled teams of loan players do not always work and to date there has been no evidence that Pat Fenlon's Hibs are any better than Colin Calderwood's Hibs. If they are that bad there is every chance Ayr United could be looking at another semi-final in what is fast becoming a very memorable season.

Part-time thinking

Adam Dodd had only been at Somerset Park for a fortnight but he already knew the script: “There is a huge difference between part-time and full-time and we put in a real effort and deserved to get something out of the game, or at least take it to penalties" he told the Herald after United’s semi-final defeat at Hampden. It is a familiar mantra – Ayr boss Brian Reid uses it in almost every interview you hear or read. Whether to take the pressure off his squad and engender an ‘underdog’ spirit as United fight relegation against exclusively full time opposition, or to take pressure of himself as an ambitious manager looking to move upwards in the game, there can be no doubt over the contractual status of Reid’s squad.

Unless you are Kenny Shiels of course. The contrary Kilmarnock manager caused a storm in the run up to the semi-final by claiming on BBC Radio Scotland Ayr United were not part time: “I don’t know where they get this part-time thing from. They are very much a full-time team” the Northern Irishman maintained. To underline his point Sheils made reference to United signing two players from Blackpool (Dodd and Tomsett on loan) and, bizarrely, goalkeeper Cammy Bell fitting a kitchen in his own home.

“We have to make it quite clear that they’re not part-time, they are full-time". 

Kenny Shiels on Ayr United

Brian Reid was affronted and the next day winger Mickey McGowan was on the back page of the red tops in a hard hat. Reid said: “I’m shocked, to tell you the truth. I’m struggling to understand where Kenny is coming from or exactly what it is he is trying to say.

“Is he calling us liars? It certainly looks that way.

“We are part-timers up against a side from the SPL and we are the underdogs. We are not lying about that.”

Michael McGowan: not a full-time footballer

A psychology graduate, Shiels - perhaps concerned about meeting the less cerebrally gifted Reid on a dark night - admitted he was playing mind games.  How else could you explain the Ulsterman claiming Kilmarnock (population 45,000) were the underdogs going into the semi-final because Ayr (population 46,000) is a bigger town? He was trying, unconvincingly, to take the pressure off his side.  But, whisper it, I think Sheils was making a good point about Ayr United's part-time status. A point that was seemingling missed by a rattled Reid and lost in the tabloid hubris surrounding the derby.

Sheils, not a stranger to being misunderstood, speaks from experience having managed in Northern Ireland for a number of years. "The boys are more professional now, they will have done their work and I guarantee they will have done as much work as us and they will be well rested" he said. Again after the game: "...do you think those guys are part-time? Modern players, whether they are with Ayr, Montrose or East Fife, they do their preparation because they have so much pride in being a good footballer".

If you give Brian Reid the credit for having the nous, the Kilmarnock manager called it correctly: "I've been in that position and what you do, as a manager, is you bring it up all the time to try to use it to take the pressure off your players.

"I don't blame Brian for doing that, it's a method of trying to take the pressure off his players.

He is working really hard to be the underdog and I can appreciate that."

Realism is important but I don't think some positivity from would go amiss from Brian Reid, for players and fans alike.  By constantly playing the part-time card, Reid may be taking the pressure off his players but is he also giving them an excuse?  Why not build belief in the players - and the fans - that Ayr United can match their opposition? Completely missed in the furore surrounding Sheils' post-match comments was the root of his frustration at Ayr's tactics: “Ayr were good enough to win. They have good players.

"You just have to make them believe that. You have to make them believe they are good.

"Their players' work ethic and endeavour was magnificent but it was a negative approach."

I've discussed the rights and wrong of United's approach in that game, but did the players believe that they could match Killie? More importantly, do they believe they can stay in the First Division?

The presumption is that part-time teams will 'run out of legs', tire in games against full-time outfits.  But Ayr have shown this season that they are a fit side, more than a match even for SPL sides. They took Hearts to extra-time in September. Matched St. Mirren for 90 mins in October, finishing the stronger and scoring a late winner. Both midweek games.  Indeed, as pointed out by Ross Moffat on twitter, no side in the First Division has picked up more points in final 10 minutes of games than the Honest Men, a season changing seven points from defeats turned to draws and draws into victories.  Brian Reid and his staff, and the players, deserve enormous credit for this.

United did come unstuck last Tuesday at Firhill, but the reason for Partick Thistle's second-half was as much to do with circumstances and schedules as it was United being part-time. Six nights previously, United had been chasing shadows for the first half-an-hour versus an exuberant Falkirk side but, with an extraordinary effort came back to finish the game stronger. At the weekend, a long journey to Dingwall and back was interspersed with a battling performance against league leaders Ross County in difficult conditions and on a heavy pitch. Any side, no matter how fit, would have struggled with that going into their third game of the week. Added to that a makeshift defence, weakened further by the loss of John Robertson when the score was still 1-1, and it was simply a bad day (or night) at the office.

Brian Reid hasn't always seen part-time football as such a hindrance. Following his first promotion to the First Division in 2009, he told the Ayrshire Post: “I don’t buy the argument that there’s a huge gap to make up and we certainly won’t be using the part-time excuse.” What changed? Ayr battled for the Second Division title in Season 2009/10 against a Raith Rovers who, like Ayr, hand a mix of part-time and full-time players.  The following season, United battled against relegation against Rovers and part-time Airdrie.  A disastrous run of just one win from their last 10 games saw United finish bottom on the final day of the season, two points behind Airdrie. The Diamonds - with a similarly punishing scheduled and part-time squad - picked up 17 points...

The psyche was probably changed the following season. Livingston romped the Second Division as the only full-time side. United finished 23 points behind Livi, but more interestingly with 15 points less than Season 2008/09.  That season saw some horror results against sides, (annoying football cliché alert) with all due respect, Ayr should have been beating. 4-1 away to Alloa and Forfar. 4-0 at home to East Fife. 3-1 at home to Stenhousemuir. Shocking results that had nothing to do with Ayr United being part-time and everything to do with Brian Reid's shortcomings as a tactician and man manager. Livingston's full-time status was a convenient excuse. Play-off success was the get out of jail card for the manager.

This season, unlike Season 2010/11, Ayr are the only part-time in the First Division but so far are holding their own, very much in a three-way relegation battle involving Raith Rovers and Queen of the South. Yes, full-time teams have more time to work on shape and tactics. More time to recover. But if Brian Reid can install the belief his players that they are match for any side in this division, regardless of whether they deliver pigs trotters, work on building sites or train full-time, hopefully the conclusion to the season can be positive.

Draw at Dingwall signifies improvement

October 1st 2011. Ayr United travelled up to Dingwall with a makeshift defence, conceded a goal in the fifth minute... and went on to lose 4-0 against Ross County, the third consecutive away game they had conceded four goals. Fast forward 20 weeks and Ayr United travelled north with a makeshift defence, conceded a goal in the seventh minute... and went on to earn a point in a gritty, characterful performance played out in wintry conditions.

Missing John Robertson - still out with a calf injury that can't heal quick enough - and Martyn Campbell, Brian Reid lined up with the same defence that ended United's impressive cup win over Falkirk last Wednesday, meaning Eddie Malone partnered Chris Smith with Adam Dodd dropping to left-back (for a more in depth look at Ayr's line-up and shape see rosscountytactics.com's excellent analysis).  It may have been an unfamiliar back four but County's opener was more predictable. Ayr have certainly improved their set-piece play in recent weeks, in defence and attack, but a low ball into the near post was deflected out by McMenamin and the second ball into the box was nodded on for Grant Munro to prod home from six yards.

That early lead really should have put the game into the 'routine' category for the champions-in-waiting but Brian Reid's men should be commended for matching their opponents on a heavy pitch. Ayr had a lot more possession than expected but the usual suspects, McGowan in particular, were often guilty of giving away the ball by trying to pass one man too many and simply not moving the ball about quickly enough. County - despite resting six players for their midweek cup game at home to St. Mirren - seemed to find it difficult to get out of second gear and lacked that creative spark to break through a disciplined performance from the away side.

Reward for that endeavour came on 80 minutes when, almost out of the blue, Blackpool kid Liam Tomsett picked the ball up in space 30 yards out and didn't need a second invitation to unleash an unstoppable shot into the top-right hand corner. (A goal that I really wish I had been paying attention to see...). It capped off another strong performance from the 18 year-old midfielder, full of energy and a game awareness that belies his age.  Added into the mix was a goal line clearance at the death as Ross County finally showed some urgency but that, coupled with a couple of excellent saves we've come to expect from Kevin Cuthbert, was enough to see out the final whistle.

Liam Tomsett struck a sensational equaliser

News over the Victoria Park tannoy that Queen of the South had conceded yet another late goal turned this point from a good one to a great one and the Honest Men now travel to Firhill on Tuesday night with the chance to climb out of the bottom two spots in the league table for the first time since the start of December.  Ayr have now drawn six of their last eight league games, and while it has kept them in touch with relegation rivals Raith Rovers and Queen of the South, need to start converting one points - and games in hand - into three points.

Tiffoney. No stranger to a red card. 

Ayr and Thistle played out a dismal goalless draw at Somerset back in December but that point saw Ayr climb to 8th place.  If Ayr are to repeat that on Tuesday it will have to be without Jonathan Tiffoney. Ayr's right back picked up a red card almost immediately after Tomsett's equaliser to add to the three he received last season. With over 50 first team starts under his belt, the majority of them at right back, the oft stated excuse: "he's not a right back" is starting to wear thin. Its natural that any youngster will struggle for consistency but Tiffoney is often his own worst enemy. Losing possession, looking for fouls, snarling at referees and rash challenges are all part of the 20 year-old's game he could do without. Not many agreed when Brian Reid brought in Jim Lauchlan to replace Tiff at right-back towards the end of last season, but the rational was understandable. John Robertson seemed to be Brian Reid's first choice in that position at the start of this season, but injury to Martyn Campbell necessitated his move to the centre where he has forged an impressive partnership with Chris Smith. Now Robbo has joined Campbell on the sidelines, Tiffoney's latest mis-demeanour is less than welcome with the squad so stretched and he may find he's replaced by a new face for a second consecutive season.

To end on a negative would be a disservice, however, to the efforts of Brian Reid's players. Beyond the unbeaten run - seven games if we're only counting 'normal time' - there have been notable improvements to the side, and aspects of United's game, which should stand them in good stead for the run in. If we can somehow have more luck with injuries, Ayr have every chance of staying in this division. That, more than any cup run, would be a massive achievement.

United's season Bairn again?

May 25th 2005. The Champions League Final. The Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul. Liverpool turn round Milan's three goal advantage in the space of only six second-half minutes on the way to fifth European Cup. Nothing about Ayr United's Scottish Cup 5th Round victory over Falkirk on Wednesday night quite matched the scale of that occasion, but the comeback was certainly of similarly unlikely proportions.

Falkirk started the game like a train. The first 20 minutes or so was perhaps the finest display I've seen in the First Division. The Bairns were passing and moving at lightning speed and Ayr were chasing shadows. After six minutes, sixteen year-old Craig Sibbald ran at Tiffoney, passed the ball back to Willie Gibson who laid it off to left-back Tam Scobbie. His deep cross into the box found 19 year-old Blair Alston - given too much room by the returning Martyn Campbell sixteen yards out - and the youngster looped an unstoppable header right into Cuthbert's top right hand corner. Even at this stage I thought the game could well be over.

1-0 after six minutes and it looked like game over

Minutes later and an out-of-sorts Jonathan Tiffoney gave the ball away to Sibbald who's cross found the dangerous Moroccan Farid El Allagui six yards out but he was unable to steer the ball goalwards. This was ominous. It wasn't a case of Ayr sitting back, defending, standing off even - something that appears to becoming clichéd accepted opinion of Brian Reid's team following the League Cup semi-final. Ayr just simply could not get the ball from the visitors.

So, when Andy Geggan forced home an equaliser 13 minutes later there was a huge sense of relief. "OK, we might not get hammered here". Influential in the build up to the goal was Micheal Moffat. Restored to undoubtedly his best position up front, Moff took in a throw in from Eddie Malone, jinked and played the ball into Adam Dodd at an acute angle on the box. Dodd rocketed the ball against the cross bar, the ball may have crossed the line, but Geggan made sure.

That knock put Steven Pressley's team out their stride just enough. There was a penalty claim as Sibbald went down in the box but Malone hadn't done enough for referee Crawford Allan to point to the spot. I've seen the Falkirk youngster go down easily before, perhaps so has Allan. Falkirk were still on top, but quite as much as on top as previously.

At half-time it was level and Brian Reid did his best Rafa Benítez. Playing on his 27th birthday Micheal Moffat was playing like a man determined to prove Reid has been wrong to leave him stranded on the left of midfield. Not that some of his best plays didn't come out wide. Moments into the second-half, Moff received a ball up the left touchline, turned Darren Dods and accelerated away from the veteran defender and bore down towards the Somerset Road End in an exhilarating display of individual skill and pace. The stramash that ensued ended in Ayr's first penalty appeal of the night but signalled The Honest Men's intent and an intensity that wasn't to give up for the remainder of the game.

Instrumental in United's remarkable revival in the second-half was the introduction of Micheal McGowan for Alan Trouten on 51 minutes, Trouten's troublesome hamstring again playing up. The front four of Dodd, Moffat, Roberts and McGowan were pressing high up the pitch, right on top of the Falkirk defence. In the centre of the park Geggan and the impressive Tomsett were sweeping up, making it difficult for the Bairns to pass their way out their own half.

Just 5 minutes after his introduction, McGowan had created what was to prove the winning goal. Receiving his own throw back from the always available Tomsett on the left he made for the touchline. After getting the better of highly rated Falkirk right-back Keiran Duffie, McGowan crossed into a packed penalty box where the experienced Dods inexplicably handled. The same-aged Mark Roberts showed significantly more composure, making no mistake from the spot. Falkirk keeper Micheal McGovern didn't even move.

United didn't give up. They continued to press and harass. Falkirk were forced to go long and were clearly rattled by the home team's intensity. McGowan continued to run at Dark Blue shirts. Unlike for most of the season, however, the former Clyde winger was passing one, two, more men and the delivering. ''If he played like this every week, he'd be playing for Man City'' one North Terracing observer noted.

There was a third penalty shout as McGowan tricked his way into the box and struck the ball at Huddersfield-bound Murray Wallace. Another move down the right brought a shot which McGovern appeared to carry over the line. Yet another presented Andy Geggan with a guilt edged chance at the back post he could only cushion against the post. Breathtaking.

There is no doubt Ayr deserved this win. Steven Pressley threw on two giants up front at the death to supplement El Allagui but that simply isn't Falkirk game, even against a makeshift defence following Martyn Campbell's injury.

Ayr's remarkable unbeaten midweek cup run was extended to eight games in a performance that bodes well for the remainder of the league season. The final 45 minutes was perhaps the best football Ayr have played all season. The addition of Blackpool loan-duo Adam Dodd and Liam Tomsett as added a better balance to the side with a natural left sided midfielder and a real impressive operator in the centre of the park in Tomsett. The 18 year old has all the energy of Steve Bowey but vitally also a composure on the ball that could see him play an important part in Ayr's survival hopes.

Those survival hopes are unlikely to be given much of a boost later today (Saturday) as the Honest Men take on league leaders Ross County at Victoria Park, where the Staggies are yet to lose in the league this season. Injuries to John Robertson and Martyn Campbell will necessitate a reshuffle at the back meaning even bookmakers odds of 9/1 (or better) may be generous. But Ayr need to start picking up league points sometime and there would be no better place than at the home of the Champions-elect. Relegation rivals Raith Rovers and Queen of the South have both earned a point against County in recent weeks, albeit at home. A win for Ayr would send a strong message to Kirkcaldy and Dumfries. The side proved on Wednesday night they have it within them.

Striking the right balance

Ayr United's postponed Scottish Cup fourth round tie versus Falkirk, due to be played at Somerset Park last Saturday, gave Brian Reid the opportunity for some much needed time on the training ground with his squad. In the run up to the League Cup semi-final, Reid described some of the practical difficulties he faces seeing his players for only 90 or so minutes, twice a week. Chief amongst the difficulties of competing with boys clubs and amateur sides for half of a floodlit artifical pitch was the shortage of time to work on tactics and the shape of the side.

The need to hit the tactics board appears to be all the more necessary following the Honest Men's January transfer dealings. Along with the recruitment of Blackpool teenagers Adam Dodd and Liam Thomsett on loan, Ayr have added three strikers: Sean Higgins, Keigan Parker and Marc Dyer. With only Tam McManus leaving the squad following an entirely underwhelming return, Reid now has plenty of striking options to choose from. It's left United fans wondering how the side will line-up for what is sure to be a relegation battle.

This season has seen Brian Reid rotate his front men, Gareth Wardlaw, Mark Roberts, Micheal Moffat and latterly, Tam McManus. With nine league goals between them, they haven't been prolific and United are the league's lowest scorers - the only side to manage less than a goal a game average.

League appearances only. Source: www.andysstats.co.uk

Reid's favoured front two has been Roberts and Wardlaw, but the two have failed to strike much of a partnership.  Wardlaw has been Reid's go-to man when he has played one up front and is Ayr's best option in this role with his hold-up play and physicality. Top league goalscorer Micheal Moffat has been employed mainly in midfield, wide of both a 4 and a 5. This has been much to the chagrin of supporters - Moffat has show in glimpses when played through the middle he has something more to offer in an advanced role.

Brian Reid will be hoping his new recruits can help Ayr find the net more regularly. Sean Higgins has signed on loan from St. Johnstone having made just one start and three substitute appearances for the Perth side this season. Speaking after recruiting Higgins from Tayside rivals Dundee in the summer, then Saints boss Derek McInnes said: "Sean is a player we've looked at in the past because he's got good technical ability. He's a finisher and he had a great second half of the season before he got injured. He can play off a main striker as well, which is something we've not really had”. Higgins netted nine goals in the First Division last season – including 7 in an 8 games spell between February and March – as Dundee bounced back from administration and a 25 point deduction to put together a long unbeaten run but his season was cut short when he was forced to undergo knee surgery.

Higgins career actually started at St. Johnstone but he was unable to make the breakthrough and moved Ross County in 2002 without making a first team appearance for the Saints. He netted his first goal for the Staggies against Ayr United that season and in seven years at Victoria Park went on to make 211 appearances, scoring 56 goals. County fan and respected First Division analysis John Maxwell of the Ross County Tactics blog concurred with McInnes’ assessment of the player, commenting on his great technique and work rate in harassing defenders. Describing how Higgins enjoyed being supporting forward at County rather than leading the line, John suggested  Higgins was better with a focal point to play off and that Micheal Moffat would be an ideal strike partner for Higgins, Moff’s pace forcing defences to sit deeper thus giving ‘Higgy’ more space. 

Parker: hopefully toasting success again in May

Another player with pace, is Keigan Parker. Now 29, Parker’s career has taken somewhat of a tumble down the English leagues in recent years since his departure from Blackpool in 2007. Like Higgins, Parker started his career at St. Johnstone where he made 144 appearances between 1998 and 2004, scoring 25 goals and never really cementing a regular starting spot despite his promise. Colin Hendry took Parker south to Blackpool on a free transfer in June 2004, his first signing in a short tenure in the Bloomfield Road hotseat. Parker netted 41 goals in 3 seasons with the Seasiders, including two memorable strikes in the 2007 League One play-offs versus Oldham and Yeovil in the final as Blackpool clinched promotion to the Championship. That Wembley play-off goal was to be Parker's last for the Club, however, as he failed to earn a regular start in the Championship and was released by manager Simon Grayson at the end of the season 2007/08.

In the three seasons following, short lived spells at Huddersfield, Hartlepool, Oldham Athletic, Bury, Mansfield Town and FleetwoodTown reaped 11 goals in 93 games and plenty of motorway miles. Parker started this season at Blue Square Premier side Stockport County but was at the Cheshire club for only a month, making just one substitute appearance under boss Dietmar Hamman. The reason for his abrupt departure unknown, in September Parker signed for Evo-Stick Division One North side AFC Fylde. The standard of the second tier of the Northern Premier League – the 8th tier of English football – is anyone’s guess but Parker has netted 13 times in 28 appearances for Fylde this season, helping them to the top of the table and impressed in a recent bounce game for Partick Thistle. Boss Jackie McNamara told the Glaswegian newspaper: "Keigan played in a bounce match for us this week and did well. He is a player I have always rated but there's just no money to sign him. He is quick and scores goals and is a good age but unfortunately we won't be able to bring him in at this stage."

Parker’s last goal for Fylde can on the 14th January in a 7-0 win over Harrogate Railway in front of 321 fans and he leaves Lancashire with the best wishes of manager Dave Challinor, the original Rory Delap. Challinor told Fylde’s website: “Keigan has actively been looking to re-locate to Scotland…it’s an opportunity for him to start again. He’s still 29 and should now be in the prime of his career – he just needs to continue to work hard and get his head down to revive his career”. The striker himself said: “It’s a great chance for a fresh start back in Scotland for me and I am looking forward to it.”

There is no doubt the Brian Reid is taking somewhat of a risk bringing Parker back north, but I think any comparisons with another journeyman striker – Junior Mendes will prove to be wide of the mark. Mendes signed for Ayr in November 2009 at the age of 33 and having retired from the game that summer and was arguably never fit. Parker on the other hand has been playing regularly this season and banging the goals in, albeit in a successful team at a fairly low level of English football. There aren’t too many strikers in the First Division that were playing at Championship level just 4 years ago and if, as David Challinor says Parker can ‘get his head down’ he could prove to be a gamble well worth taking.  At 29, time is still on his side. 

I would be surprised if Higgins and Parker don’t form Brian Reid’s chosen strike partnership and the evidence suggests they could be successful pairing. Higgins appears hungry to get back playing, Parker to resurrect his career in Scotland.  But Ayr also also have options in abundance if injury or lack of form strike.  Providing Reid utilises his striking options wisely, and boldly, the Honest Men have all the tools they could hope to have to score the goals that will secure their First Division status.