Preview: First Division Play-Offs

The lottery of the play-offs they call it and, after 36 games, the fate of one First Division and three Second Division sides now lies on two - or four - games.  For Ayr United, in this end-of-season contest for the third time in four years, the prize is First Division survival. For Arbroath, Dumbarton and Airdrie United its promotion alongside Cowdenbeath to Scotland's second tier.

Play-Off Champions: One year one United are looking for same again.

The bookies make Ayr United favourites but the 9th placed First Division side has not faired well in the play-offs, retaining their status just once in six years. Here is a run-down on the form, key men and play-off records of the contenders:


Ayr United

Season so far: Ayr United have upset the established order this season by finishing above full-time Queen of the South to give themselves the opportunity to make it successive seasons in the First Division for the first time since 2003. Coupled with three SPL scalps en-route to the League Cup semi-final and a Scottish Cup quarter-final, survival would represent a huge achievement for Brian Reid’s side but how will the favourites tag sit?

Form: United finished the season, as is becoming customary, with a number of defeats. Seven in nine games to be precise but wins away to Livingston and at home to Dundee were enough avoid an automatic return to the First Division with a game to spare, having done enough between January and the start of March to open up an advantage over Queen of the South.

Stats: Quite simply United have shipped too many goals this season. Despite eight clean sheets, more than Queen of the South, Hamilton and twice as many as Raith Rovers, 67 goals have been conceded,  3 or more goals on 12 occasions. Injuries (and suspensions) haven't helped and Brian Reid has been forced into using six different centre-back partnerships. Going into the play-offs, John Robertson and Martyn Campbell are injury doubts and, worryingly, Chris Smith has made two or three costly and uncharacteristic errors. 

In their favour, time-after-time, Brian Reid's man have shown tremendous character and a never-say-die attitude: Ayr have clawed back an impressive 17 points from a losing position this season.

Key Men: Former St. Johnstone and Blackpool striker Keigan Parker hasn't set the heather on fire since his return north but two goals of exquisite quality versus Dundee last weekend signalled that the now 29 year-old striker could play a big part in United’s survival hopes. Parker has play-off pedigree – in 2007 he scored Blackpool's second goal in their 2-0 win against Yeovil Town in the League One play-off final at Wembley. 

Keigan Parker: time to shine?

Alongside Parker, ‘keeper Kevin Cuthbert has picked up most of the Player of the Year awards this season and has made very few mistakes and many more terrific saves between the sticks, while the goals of Mark Roberts and Michael Moffat were instrumental in Ayr's success last season. Moffat warmed up with two goals against Falkirk on the final day of the season.

Play-off record: P8, W5, D3, L0, F19, A11 - The Honest Men haven't lost a game in the play-offs, earning promotion to the First Division in 2009 and 2011. Ayr have won all four of their away ties, including decisive second-leg games at Airdrie and Brechin.

Odds: 15/8

Airdrie
Season so far: Airdrie clinched fourth position and the final play-off spot on the last day of the season with their first goalless draw of the season at Champions Cowdenbeath while Stenhousemuir, with whom they were level on points going into game, crashed 2-1 at home to Forfar.  It was only in April that the Diamonds climbed into the top four as they finished strongly as others faltered.

Form: So often its the form side that is the the most dangerous going into the play-offs and that accolade is undoubtedly Airdrie United's. The Diamonds have lost just one game since 25th February, a run of 11 games that has earned 24 points.

Stats: One statistics stands out for Airdrie and its their disciplinary record. Jimmy Boyle's men have picked up 12 red and 77 yellow cards this season, the worst record in Scotland.  Ayr United travel to Lanarkshire on Wednesday night in the first-leg of the semi-final and will do well to prevent the hosts scoring.  Airdrie have found the net 43 times in 18 home games this season and have only failed to score at New Broomfield once.

Key Men: The Airdrie squad has a good mix of youth and experience. David Lilley and Paul Lovering - injuries permitting - will marshal the defence while big Derek Holmes will be a handful up-front but Airdrie's biggest danger man is likely to be Holmes strike partner, Ryan Donnelly. The highly rated 20 year-old is the Second Division's top goalscorer with 27 goals (non of which have come from the penalty spot).  Donnelly is described by preeminent SFL blogger Craig Telfer in an article for the two unfortunates blog as "a deft and instinctive finisher, [who] displays intelligent positioning and movement in and around the penalty area." and "strong on both feet and a potent threat in the air".  Donnelly has been less prolific since the turn of the year, with three goals in his last 12 appearances compared to 13 goals in the 12 games previous.

Ryan Donnelly: can he recapture his early season goalscoring form?

Play-off record: P14 W5 D3 L6 F22 A18 - Airdrie have a disastrous play-off record and hold the unwanted distinction of losing three consecutive First Division play-off finals. They were relegated from the First Division via the play-offs in 2007, lost to Clyde in the final the following year but benefited from the demise of Gretna to go up. In 2009, Livingston's demotion to the third Division saved the Diamonds again after play-off final defeat to Ayr United.  Their fourth play-off appearance in 2010 finally saw them relegated to the Second Division when Brechin City defeated them at the semi-final stage. 

Odds: 10/3

Arbroath
Season so far: Managed by former Ayr United midfielder Paul Sheerin, Arbroath unfurled their first Championship flag in their 133-year history at Gayfield on the opening day of this season and went on to hammer fellow Second Division new boys Albion Rovers 6-2. Despite losing their next game away to Stenhousemuir, that result was typical of an impressive start to the season for the Red Lichties which reaped 18 points from their first seven games and saw them find the net 23 times. Unfortunately for Sheerin and his side, Cowdenbeath also started the season well and before the first quarter of the season was out it was the Fife side who topped the table, with Arbroath second and it was to remain that way for the rest of the season.

Arbroath fans, including a man in Speedos, celebrate promotion

Form: Arbroath's form has tailed off at the end of the season, with only three wins in their last 11 games.  A 3-2 victory at Central Park at the start of April narrowed the gap to three points with four games to play but ultimately merely delayed Cowdenbeath's title celebrations - Arbroath took just a point from their next two games as the Blue Brazil took six. The following week, Sheerin described his side's defeat at home to Stenhousemuir as "the worst performance I've been involved in since I've been at the club"

Stats: The Red Lichties have averaged over two goals per game this season, netting 76 times in 36 games, eight more than Champions Cowdenbeath. At the other end, they've conceded too many goals (51) and kept only 6 clean sheets.

Key Men: Arbroath strength is in the midfield.  At the age of 37, player-manager Paul Sheerin can still pick a pass with one of the finest left foots to grace Scotland in recent years, as can former Motherwell, Hibs and Scotland (albeit under the Vogts era...) midfielder Brain Kerr and the diminutive 21 year-old Josh Falkingham, who would surely be playing at a higher level if he was a few inches taller. In front of that trio, neither Steven Doris and Gavin Swankie are out-and-out strikers but have an incredible 72 goals between them in the last two seasons.

Play-off record: P12, W3, D4, L5, F13, A13 - The Angus side have enjoyed both success and failure in four Second Division play-off campaigns. Defeated at the semi-final stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07 it was third time lucky the following season with aggregate victories over Cowdenbeath (after extra-time) and Stranraer earning promotion in 2008.

Two years later and it was back to the Third Division football as Arbroath were relegated via the play-offs, losing out 2-0 in the final to Angus rivals Forfar at Station Park after the first leg at Gayfield ended goalless.

Odds: 5/2

Dumbarton

Season so far: Dumbarton secured their highest finish in the league since 2004 – and a play-off spot – in their penultimate game of the regular season and will be looking to reach the second tier of Scottish football for the first time since 1996. The Sons can look towards a ten-game unbeaten run comprising 8 wins and 2 draws at the turn of the year which helped establish the side’s play-off credentials after what is fast becoming a trademark slow start to the season. The Sons ended the first round of nine fixtures in seventh position and were shipping an average of 2.55 goals per game but, despite a dismal March which brought only four points from 6 games (and saw 14 goals conceded), Dumbarton looked comfortable in third spot since mid-February.  

Form: Ended the season with three wins to finish six points clear of fourth placed Airdrie United.

Stats: Not only have Dumbarton been slow starters over the course of the season, Adamson's men have generally been slow starters in matches. Their first-half record is ranked 8th in the Second Division - they have been leading after 45 minutes on just eight occasions meaning they have required some pretty big second periods to earn their seventeen league wins.

Key Men: Former Ayr United duo Bryan Prunty and Scott Agnew are Dumbarton’s top goalscorers this season with 14 and 12 goals respectively. A striker that thrives on confidence, Prunty scored 18 goals in 2008/09 and his goalscoring seems to come in bursts: seven in 10 games during Dumbarton's purple patch but only one in nine since the start of March. Agnew was more of a peripheral figure during his time at Somerset Park but regular football, at Stranraer and then Dumbarton this season, has seen the playmaker become an integral player more than capable of getting his name on the scoresheet. The Sons will be a big danger at set-pieces with his dead ball prowess.  And what about former Kilmarnock striker Craig Dargo? He scored a hat-trick on the final day of the season and would surely love to exorcise the demons of that penalty miss at the Somerset Road in 2001.

Craig Dargo. Surely not?

Play-off record: This will be Dumbarton’s first foray into the end-of-season play-offs.

Odds: 3/1

Welcome the new Hibs. Same as the old Hibs?

The ball was fired into the box by Andy Rodgers. It looped into the air and Mark Roberts controlled it with his left foot. Shifted on to his right, then his left. His right again. And then again on to his left before sending a curling shot along the ground past Graeme Smith. Typical Marko. 417 days later Hibs return to Somerset Park desperately looking to avoid a repeat. This time they'll meet a stronger Ayr United side, a Division higher and on a rich vein of form having won three games in fourteen days to lift themselves of the foot of the First Division. But what can we expect from a new look Hibs side and are they set to go the same way as Inverness, city-rivals Hearts and St. Mirren this season? 

Pat Fenlon has undertaken a radical overhaul of the Hibs squad since replacing Colin Calderwood at the end of November, recruiting no fewer than eight new players. Indeed, the Hibs side that lines-up at Somerset Park tomorrow will bare no resemblance to the one that crashed out of the competition to the Honest Men last season, with all but two of the starting line-up that night having departed Easter Road.

Fenlon’s new recruits represent a mixed bag of future prospects, former prospects and unknown foreign quantities. A leaky defence has been replenished with 20-year old full backs Matt Doherty and George Francomb on loan from Wolves and Norwich respectively and James McPake, borrowed from Coventry City until the end of the season. Given the captain’s armband in the continued absence of Ian Murray, McPake started his career at Livingston alongside the likes of Robert Snodgrass and Graeme Dorrans but the 27 year old has failed to make the same impact south of the border as his Almondvale alumni, making 39 appearances in two-and-a-half season for the Midlands club. Also added to the equation is the ‘Gambian Roberto Carlos’, Pa Saikou Kujabi.

The Hibs defence, however, remains suspect, looking non-too clever in conceding four against Motherwell and five against Celtic in recent weeks. Goalkeeper Graham Stack came in for particular criticism for his display against a Celtic side admittedly at the top of their game.

In midfield, Hibs have added Honduran internationalist Jorge Claros, who was shot in the head last year during an attempted carjacking. Nicknamed ‘The Pitbull’, Claros and the formidable presence of Isaiah Osbourne will most likely carry out the graft for the Hibees in the middle of the park, although Claros is much more than a destroyer and can pick out a pass and is comfortable on the ball. Fenlon’s more attacking options in midfield include home-grown talents David Wotherspoon and Louis Stevenson and another player on-loan from the English Premiership, Tom Soares. Opening his Hibs account with two goals versus Kilmarnock at Rugby Park a fortnight ago, Soares was a promising youngster coming through the ranks with Crystal Palace and earned four England U21 caps. In 2008 he moved to newly-promoted Stoke City in a £1.25 million deal but has made only seven Premier League appearances. Ominously for Hibs, loan spells at Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday have ended with both sides being relegated.

Hibs under Colin Calderwood were heavily reliant on Garry O’Connor for goals, with the former Scotland interationalist netting seven of the Leith side’s first 11 league goals. Since October however, the goals have dried up for O’Connor as a persistent ankle injury has taken its toll. Leigh Griffiths – when not gesticulating at his own supporters – has weighed in with seven but Hibs haven’t been prolific, scoring 15 goals in 14 league games under Fenlon and have failed to find the net in five of their last seven games.

If O’Connor is not deemed fit enough to start on Saturday, yet another on-loan player Roy O’Donovan is likely to get the nod. Signed by Roy Keane in 2007 from Cork City – where he had an impressive strike-rate of 31 goals in 76 games – he spent much of his Sunderland career out on loan, including at Dundee United in 2008 before signing for Coventry in June 2010. A more recent recruit to from the League or Ireland Eion Doyle is also an option, and has already netted two Scottish Cup goals this season against Cowdenbeath and the winner against Kilmarnock in the last round.

Building virtually a new team in a matter of months was never going to be easy but any improvement in Hibs’ fortunes under Fenlon hasn’t manifest itself in results. While Colin Calderwood blundered his way to 14 points from 15 games at the start of the season, Fenlon has added just nine from his 14 games. Hibs now sit in 11th in the SPL, two points ahead of Dunfermline – that’s no bigger an advantage than when Fenlon took over Hibs, then placed 9th. Additional victories have come in the Scottish Cup: at Cowdenbeath – where they conceded after just 30 seconds but went on to win 3-2 – and 1-0 at home to Kilmarnock but Fenlon shouldn’t take too much heart from a job professionally done at Central Park as he faces another ‘tricky tie’.

Brian Reid’s approach to the game will be intriguing. Will he stick with the same side and formation that has served him so well over the past thirteen days? Or will he revert to the tried and tested 451 approach that has seen Ayr knock out three SPL sides this season and run a fourth very close? It seems likely that it will be same again for United for two key reasons. Firstly: Reid's midfield options are limited. Alan Trouten is struggling with both hamstrings and is unlikely to be fit, Jamie McKernon and Ross Robertson are no-more than bit part players and lack the experience or quality you feel to come into a game like this. Secondly: it would mean breaking up the Parker-Roberts partnership upfront. Parker could do a job upfront on his own and is a willing runner now up to full speed but his pairing with Roberts looks to be mutually beneficial, making the most of the class both players posses.

So, Ayr’s approach to the game is likely to be far more positive than in recent encounters with SPL sides, through necessity and form. It will be important that the front two, along with Moffat and McGowan wide press the Hibernian defence and full backs. Tomsett and Geggan – at the centre of United’s marked improvement in recent weeks in every respect – will have to be at their best, harrying, hustling and denying Hibs easy time on the ball. This area could be a concern for United, not in terms of the performance we can expect from Tomsett and Geggan but that Hibs lack real width (unless Ivan Sproule is given an unexpected start) and therefore could have a numerical advantage in the middle of the park. That lack of width is perhaps a good thing with Ayr's young full backs Jonathan Tiffoney and Adam Dodd potentially the weak links in an already makeshift back four.

Judging by the media coverage in the run up to the game emanating from Easter Road, Hibs seem to be pinning a lot of  hopes on just not being that side defeated 14 months ago and that they came through that Cowdenbeath game.  But Somerset Park will be a different proposition and its not often a Second Division side knocks out one from the SPL (last year excepted, of course).  Ayr fans have first hand experience that hastily assembled teams of loan players do not always work and to date there has been no evidence that Pat Fenlon's Hibs are any better than Colin Calderwood's Hibs. If they are that bad there is every chance Ayr United could be looking at another semi-final in what is fast becoming a very memorable season.

McManus boosts United's striking options

Its been some time since the the last @albinoanaconda blog post, 65 days to be precise, but ahead of the Honest Men's trip to Palmerston Park I'm picking up almost where I left it. Since a late Mark Roberts goal earned United all three points against Queen of the South in September the Dumfries have picked up only six points from a possible 21 and have slumped to the bottom of the table.  Another defeat on Saturday and Brian Reid's men could extend their lead over the Doonhamers to six points.

That win at Somerset Park came on the back of the United's League Cup heroics against Hearts and superstitious boss Brian Reid stuck with the same formation, but with Mark Roberts replacing Gareth Wardlaw in the lone striking role.  That tactic simply didn't work for me - as discussed in the last blog entry - yet Ayr have persisted with Roberts up front on his own. The evidence is fairly damning.  Following on from the win against Queens, Ayr have struggled at home, scoring just once in four league games - a consolation against Dundee from the penalty spot in a 3-1 defeat.  Goalless draws against Livingston and Partick Thistle last Wednesday have all seen Roberts ploughing a loan furrow, as he also did when United made the long journey to Dingwall and were defeated 4-0.

Ayr's best results have come on the road and four consecutive wins began with another heroic cup display at St. Mirren Park.  As he did against Hearts, Gareth Wardlaw - with something to prove against his old side - lead the line superbly. The longer the game remained goalless, the more Ayr came into the game. Micheal McGowan in particular began to have a creative influence and after a serious of set-pieces it was Chris Smith who powered home the winning goal from a Eddie Malone free kick to set the biggest Ayrshire derby in history in January.

Four days later and 2-0 down at half-time against Hamilton at New Douglas Park all looked lost but an incredible second-half display - and another header from Chris Smith - earned Ayr an unlikely three points. The Honest Men also travelled to play Raith for an early season 'relegation six-pointer' and came away with what could prove to be a vital 1-0 win against a poor Rovers side devoid of confidence.  Like at Paisley, Gareth Wardlaw was the man entrusted to lead the line in Kirkcaldy and Hamilton, with Mark Roberts on the bench.  Three games away from home in which Wardlaw has played up front on his own and three impressive and important wins. Four games with Roberts up front on his own - three at home - and just one goal and two points.  It would be over-simplifying matters to state it should be Wardlaw and not Roberts who should play up front - things weren't too difference when Wardlaw fulfilled the role at home to a Morton side there for the taking at Somerset - but it is clear Reid cannot continue with Roberts in the loan role.  Against Partick Thistle on Wednesday, Marko cut a frustrated figure, his contribution mainly limited to kicking and barging the Thistle back three.  When he was substituted on 69 minutes the skipper slumped back in the dugout, clearly not happy. The veteran still has that compose on the ball, especially in the box, that can fashion a shooting chance from nowhere but he simply lacks the legs, stamina, pace and physicality make an impact on his own up front.

Wednesday also saw a second debut for Tam McManus. The former Hibs striker has penned a short-term deal to the first week in January having trained with the side for a number of weeks and turned out a couple of times for the Reserves. Although you can expect some shortness of match fitness having not played a first-team game since he left Falkirk in May it made Reid's decision to go with Roberts alone up front against Thistle all the more bewildering. With four strikers in the match-day 16 why put one on the wing (a matter for whole different blog post) and leave two on the bench, playing arguably the least effective in the lone role up front? More frustratingly, why wait until 74 minutes to make the switch to two up front? Like the Livingston and Morton games it felt that an overcautious approach from the United boss had scuppered any chance of earning three points.

Hopefully Reid will acknowledge a change is needed and in his pre-match comments Brian states: "Our midweek game against Partick took a lot out of the side due to the conditions it was played in and I will look to freshen things up as result", hinting at a start for McManus. Whether in place or alongside Roberts (or Wardlaw) we'll see but there is no doubting that Tam McManus is an exciting option.

Why McManus finds himself, again, in the situation where Ayr United seems to be his only option is baffling.  Especially on the evidence of these goals:



Tam's first spell at Somerset Park started with four goals in his first five games and sparked a mini-revival which gave United hope in their relegation battle (Ayr won four and drew four of his first nine league games at the club).  In the end, Ayr lost eight of their last nine games and were relegated.  Staying on at Somerset Park was never on the cards but it was not until September 2010 that Tam was fixed up with a club as he returned to Falkirk, initially to January but subsequently extended to the end of the 2010/11 season. Seven goals in 13 starts was a decent return at the Falkirk Stadium but at the start of this season McManus again found himself on the look out for a new club - a twelfth of his career at the age of 30.

McManus told the Daily Record in October that he was feeling as sharp as he ever has in his career and "playing for claps" represents a risk well worth taking - but will surely require a change in approach from Brian Reid. Somerset Park buzzed with excitement on Wednesday night, despite the wind and the rain, when McManus entered the fray and partnered Wardlaw upfront. At a stage of the season where a couple of wins could open up a significant gap between the Honest Men and the bottom of the table, a few goals from a proven goalscorer could prove very shrewd business indeed.

A welcome return as underdogs

Eagle-eyed observers, glass-half-empty miserablists and the negative moaning bastard types you often find at Somerset Park may suggest that, after a promising start, this blog has somewhat died on its arse (look, it doesn’t owe you anything, its just some ramblings about Ayr United on the internet). After Ayr United crashed out of the Ramsdens Cup to Third Division Annan on Sunday lets hope the side’s fortunes on the pitch don’t follow in a similar vein as we gear up for a trip up the coast to Cappielow.

A word first on the win against Raith Rovers which earned United their first win of the league campaign, following on from credible draws with Falkirk and Dundee and a decent performance on the opening day against Hamilton. Ayr went into the game on the back of a well deserved win over Inverness and with the knowledge they had put Raith Rovers out of the Ramsdens Cup. Rovers themselves had been lambasted by a 'livid' and 'raging' John McGlynn for their 3-0 Cup defeat at the hands of Airdrie United: "abysmal" and  "absolutely disgraceful" said last season's PFA Scotland Manager of the Year.

Of he was looking for a response, he didn't get one.  Not until Mat Northcroft sent of Rovers youngster Ross Callachan for a challenge on Mark Roberts that initially looked innocuous from the North Terracing but on review was a video nasty.  Callachan's mother asked me before the game if she would get in for free because her son was playing and if she could pay by card at the turnstyles. It seems that particular family have got a lot to learn.

Rovers were surprisingly rank rotten in the first half-an-hour of the game but in truth, Ayr didn’t quite reach their best. Raith did what Raith do, and when down to 10 men they were even more effective.  The long ball up to the busy Baird remained a threat and McGlynn stuck with two-up front, limiting the ability of Ayr's full-backs to be released forward, although Malone became increasingly influential as Ayr went in search of a goal.  Ayr's first goal came from that man Michael McGowan.  Michael Moffat's best work may not come at left wing, but he does add a goal threat and it was him that stole in to hit home a McGowan cross. 

Raith equalised shortly after going down to ten men, with a neat passing move you don't normally associate with McGlynn's 'kick and rush' merchants. The goalscorer was Joe Hamill, a player who impressed me at Livingston last season and a shrewd acquisition by Raith in the summer.  The remainder of the game was typified by long balls and time wasting from the visitors and tiredness and anxiety from the home team.  Eventually, though, the goal came and it was Ross Robertson with a perfect header past McGurn. This is exactly the cameo role Rosco can play for us this season - he night lack finesse but the lad is a danger and it was excellent to see Ayr get the win that their start to the season - if not their performance on the afternoon - deserved.

Then came Annan on weekend to forget from football fans with sympathies for both the national team and Ayr United.  Brain Reid has never taken this competition particularly seriously and maybe got a bit too complacent with his team selection for this one, influenced no doubt by the success his 'B' team had against Raith in the previous round.  Ayr lost it in the midfield and up front, where Reid changed all six.  Trouten - returning from injury was well off the pace; Ross Robertson showed a lack of composure and game intelligence; and Tiffoney? Oh dear. He had a shocker. There's is a blog piece in its own on alarming regression his performances have shown of late. Poor Ryan Connolly won't have known what hit him in a difficult game to judge the on loan Irishman. 

Upfront, only Brian Reid knows what he was hoping to achieve by playing Alex Burke off Roddy Paterson. Its hard to imagine the No. 10 jersey being filled by someone less mobile that Mark Roberts but Burke managed it and then some. The former Kilmarnock winger walked straight down the tunnel after being substituted on 54 minutes. We can only hope he kept on walking never to be seen again. It was unfair on Paterson, a natural born goalscorer if ever I've seen one. Yes, his numerous mistimed runs frustrated, but Roddy himself has cut a frustrated, scowling figure in recent weeks. One can only hope Reid knows what he is doing with his man management of this potential hitman.   

In the end Ayr - and Brian Reid - got what they deserved and we can only hope lessons are learned.       

With that forgotten - nobody seemed too upset at crashing out the Ramsdens Cup - it's along the Clyde coast tomorrow for a game that could see United stretch their unbeaten league run to four games. 

Ayr should have their strongest (on paper) defence of the season available, with Duff at right back – he’s been offered a contract so I’d expect him at least to feature as a trialist again – Malone at left back and Robertson and Campbell in the middle. This means no place for the vastly improved Chris Smith. He’s no longer the bombscare many opposition fans seem to remember him as but at the same time, MacDonald and Jackson could get the better of him. That would give us a solid, experienced back line that will be difficult to break down. If Di Giacomo is deployed on the right his head-to-head with Malone could be entertaining.

If we’re to get anything from the game it will on the counter attack, and down the flanks. McGowan is the danger man, bringing in Connolly allows him to play on the right where he has been most dangerous. Those two are going to have to do a job defensively, however, especially if Morton play narrow as the inexperienced Geggan and McKernan, although hardworking, could be swamped. Away from home there is no place for Roberts in the starting line-up, in my opinion. That was evidenced at Dundee, where he neither linked up with Wardlaw leading the line or contributed much to the midfield in a deeper role. Moffat is a much better option to play off Wardlaw. 

Morton are much fancied this season, and certainly carry a confident (if not down right delusional and arrogant) support, and with the attacking players they posses will be a tough, tough test tomorrow.  It should be an attractive, entertaining game but if Ayr's experienced back four can keep it tight there is no reason why we can't add to our points tally this season.  After the expectation of getting the win against 10 men Raith, and  a Ramsdens Cup semi-final at the hands of Third Division Annan, Ayr go into the game as underdogs (3/1 underdogs) - a position that has suited them so far this season.

A long road home

What we have tonight are all the components of a famous Somerset Park cup upset. A struggling SPL side (think Hibs...)? Check.? A confident Ayr side? Check. A bit of weather? Well, it's hosing it down where I am. Add to that a midweek game under the floodlights (let's hope the new ones have the same magic as the old ones) and you could forgive Inverness Caledonian Thistle for not fancying it tonight.
Now, we have been here before with Caley. A Scottish Cup replay in January 2006 shown live on Sky. Gareth Wardlaw had scored an equaliser up in Inverness but the replay did not go to plan.  I watched from a pub in Wigan as Mark McGeown was sent off after 36 minutes and Caley put two goals past Eric Phillips. Who was about 40 years old.
But circumstances are different now. Ayr go into the game buoyed by their performances this season. There is a belief in the squad that we can compete and all that is missing is the wins to prove it. Wardlaw looks to be finding his stride, McGowan has been terrorising left-backs for fun and Geggan and McKernan, despite their lack of obvious presence and years, are a hard working central midfield duo.
For Caley, gone are the experienced stalwarts like Russell Duncan, Grant Munro and Stuart Golabek - the club's heartbeat - that typified Inverness as the tough and inimitable force that stormed the Scottish leagues and gave United fans some days they would love to forget (remember when we were 3-0 up at half-time...) if only they could. After scrambling around the English lower leagues for recruitments in the summer and signing Gregory Tade, Caley haven't got going this season and lie bottom of the SPL with just one point from five games. Even Aberdeen scored against them at the weekend, while with Adam Rooney gone the Highlanders have failed to score in three out of their five games.
With such a poor start to the season, confidence is bound to be low and the cliché of Somerset Park being a difficult place to go will be ingrained to the point where it could become a self fulfilling prophecy. In Foran and Hayes, Caley have two dangerman capable of causing us big problems, but I don't see much else to be concerned about in their team. Ross Tokey comes back from suspension, but 500+ games looks to have caught up with the veteran. Butcher is expected to play backup keeper Jonathan Tuffey and the Northern Irishman has never inspired confidence in me. Remember Mark Roberts opening day goal from the half-way line against Partick three years ago? The last thing Inverness need is a jittery goalie.
The game provides Ayr with a perfect opportunity to play without the pressure of needing to pick up three points in what will inevitably be a relegation fight. There is nothing to lose and Brian Reid could well be tempted to go with youngsters Robertson, Tiffoney, Armstrong and Paterson and those lads haven't let us down yet. Inverness will face a 200 mile trip home tonight whatever the score and the famous chippy at Auchterarder could well be closed. There's every chance it could be another miserable journey back to the Highland capital.
Come back later in the week for a match review and player ratings from tonight and Saturday's 2-2 draw with Falkirk. And C'mon Ayr!

Records are there for breaking...

Well. I wasn't expecting that.  Ayr United's 3-0 Ramsdens Cup win against Raith Rovers at Cappielow on Tuesday night leaves Brian Reid's men in confident mood ahead of the trip to Dens Park, and the gaffer with a real selection headache. Dundee haven't lost a home game in the league since January 2010 - a run of 23 games (during which they have entered - and exited - administration) but this could be a great chance for United to end that record and pick up a first league win in the City of Discovery for over 30 years.

Veterans Mark Roberts and Alex Burke along with Alan Trouten and Micheal McGowan and Andy Geggan made way on Tuesday for Academy kids Gareth Armstrong (17), Roddy Paterson (18) - both making their first competitive starts - Ross Robertson and Jonathan Tiffoney (both 20) while 19 year old St. Mirren kid Jamie McKernan also came into the midfield and the kids provided three goals and a Man of the Match award between them.  While it seems unlikely that Brian Reid will stick with an inexperienced midfield of  Robertson, McKernan, Tiffoney and Moffat,  I'd be happy to see Robertson retain his place in the centre of the park alongside Geggan.  What 'Rosco' may lack in finesse he certainly offers in effort and dig that will be needed this season on the road.  At left midfield McGowan is the obvious choice after an impressive display against Hamilton while its a toss up between Tiffoney and Trouten on the right.  The defence picks itself, with Armstrong - who penned a professional deal at Somerset Park this week - surely set to keep the No. 2 shirt despite his age.  Tiffoney is also an option but by all accounts the two linked up well with Tiff ahead of young Armstrong on the right on Tuesday and perhaps that caught the gaffer's eye. Upfront, its any two from Moffat, Marko, Wardlaw and Paterson. Paterson could be a dangerous addition from the bench later on in the game while Marko dropping into deeper role when Ayr don't have the ball could work well. You will notice no place from Alex Burke.

To take anything from Dens we are going to have to address the one big weakness. But for a) some excellent set piece deliveries from Dougie Imrie; b) an experienced 6ft 2in defender in the substantial form of Mark McLaughlin; and c) McLaughlin's equally experienced defensive partner Simon Mensing getting away with a clear foul on Kevin Cuthbert, United could have taken a share - if not all three - points on Saturday but its a type of goal Brian Reid's sides have been conceding for too long.  Ominously for tomorrow Dundee pose their own danger men that could exploit our set-piece Achilles heal.  Matt Lockwood's Wikipedia page describes the 34 year old player-assistant manager as a 'set piece specialist' while in Craig McKeown and former Arsenal and Wales international Rhys Weston they have a couple of centre-backs who could cause our defence problems at free-kicks and corners.

Barry Smith has added some experienced players over the summer after their administration woes left them literally begging, borrowing and stealing players last term but strikers Graham Bayne and Steven Milne are struggling with injury and without Gary Harkins questions surround the Dark Blue's goalscoring credentials. The Dees had to rely on a controversial penalty at Firhill on Saturday, and although they stuck four past a poor Dumbarton side also struggled against Arbroath.  Playing away from home - and with little expectation - could suit an Ayr side who look strongest when counter attacking.

Regardless of some encouraging signs so far its hard to imagine we won't be struggling at the bottom end of the table this season, so its important get some points on the board.  Dundee might prove an unexpected opportunity to start the ball rolling.

Tried to make me go to Greenock, I said Cappielow? No, no

I’ll level with you. I don’t like Raith Rovers. I don’t like Cappielow either, although I’ve only been twice: once down from Aberdeen in 2000 for a game where it rained incessantly on the uncovered Wee Dublin End and I didn’t have a jacket (I think the game ended in a draw) and again for the game that finally put us out our misery the last time we (dis)graced the First Division. Somehow we went into that game with a chance of staying up, or at least grabbing a play-off spot. And when Danny McKay scored, well… it’s the hope that kills you. I’d driven down from Skye for the game. 6am ferry.  Should have known better though. The 4-1 home defeat by Airdrie on a dismal Wednesday night a couple of weeks previous was all the evidence needed that Ayr’s First Division ba’ was burst, nevermind the 7-0 humiliation dished out be Inverness three days later. It was a truly horrific end of season run.

Diversions aside, fate would have it I can’t make it to Cappielow tonight anyway. Oh, well, I’ve still got another two opportunities to avoid Inverclyde and four chances to get annoyed by Raith Rovers’ effective kick-and-rush pragmatism this season…

On to the game and just one injury – to Eddie Malone (thankfully not a season-ending leg-break as first feared) – brings into focus our paper thin squad.  Chris Smith seems the only option to replace Malone at left-back, although McGowan could play there at a push, and the imperious John Robertson the obvious candidate to fill in at centre-back, with Jonathan Tiffoney, curiously low profile during the start of the season, or 17 year old Gareth Armstrong coming in at right-back.

Tiffoney, Gareth Wardlaw, Gareth Armstrong and Roddy Patterson are all in contention to start but no mention of Ross Robertson, a player many would like to see in the middle of the park to give us the physical presence that the impressive Andy Geggan and entirely ineffective Alex Burke don’t provide.  Another player who won’t provide that missing ‘dig’ is on-loan St. Mirren kid Jamie McKernan.  On as a replacement for Burke against Hamilton, I don’t doubt the lad’s ability – I’m sure he’s a tidy wee player – but I fail to see what he adds to the squad.  More concerning, is Reid’s preference for these unproven SPL kids over our own Academy prospects, notably Ross Robertson and increasingly Tiffoney. Tiff was a last resort at right-back at the start of last season but proved his worth with some great performances.  Yes, a bit naïve at times and with some defensive frailties but it seems that Reid no long fancies Tiffoney at right-back (hence he inflicted us with Jim Lauchlan towards the end of last season), or even at all? Curious. One silver lining could be that we were in the same boat last season and it wasn’t until September that Brian Reid captured Eddie Malone and Ryan McCann, two of our more consistent players last season.

As for Raith Rovers, who won their first Challenge Cup game in six years when they knocked out local rivals Cowdenbeath in the first round, they will be without skipper Iain Davidson for the game, who suffered medial knee ligament damage that will keep him out for up to eight weeks.  Incredibly Davidson had been linked with a move to Hibs earlier in the week, proof possibly that while Colin Calderwood might still be Easter Road in body, he isn’t there in mind or spirit.

Manager John McGlynn - PFA Scotland Manager of the Year last season – has described tonight’s tie as “winnable”, and the bookies certainly agree.  Rovers had quite a remarkable season last year and in John Baird have a striker who suits Rovers’ style of play (and hopefully dives less than his predecessor in that role for Rovers, Graeme Weir).  McGlynn has also added Livingston midfield Joe Hamill and he certainly stood out last season as a useful operator in the middle of the park, while they are unlikely to miss the enigmatic Gregory Tadé too much – ex-Morton man Brian Graham now providing the foil for Baird.

For United, our best hope could well be Gareth Wardlaw. Which for some may be a worry. Missed a golden opportunity against Accies but will hopefully be fired up to impress against his former side. His inclusion may see United going more direct but he has that nuisance factor that could cause Raith’s experience centre-back partnership of Ellis and Murray trouble and create opportunities for Moffat or Paterson, who appears to be well capable of finishing even the slightest of half-chance.

Steve Conroy is the referee tonight so if you are going to the game you can at least personalise your ire towards the man in black.  Conroy was the whistler on the receiving end of Alex Williams’ affections following THAT equalising goal against THEM and the ‘taps aff’ celebration. Great scenes!  I’m off to find the goal on YouTube to take my mind off tonight and the sorry reason why this game is going ahead at Cappielow…