Preview: First Division Play-Offs

The lottery of the play-offs they call it and, after 36 games, the fate of one First Division and three Second Division sides now lies on two - or four - games.  For Ayr United, in this end-of-season contest for the third time in four years, the prize is First Division survival. For Arbroath, Dumbarton and Airdrie United its promotion alongside Cowdenbeath to Scotland's second tier.

Play-Off Champions: One year one United are looking for same again.

The bookies make Ayr United favourites but the 9th placed First Division side has not faired well in the play-offs, retaining their status just once in six years. Here is a run-down on the form, key men and play-off records of the contenders:


Ayr United

Season so far: Ayr United have upset the established order this season by finishing above full-time Queen of the South to give themselves the opportunity to make it successive seasons in the First Division for the first time since 2003. Coupled with three SPL scalps en-route to the League Cup semi-final and a Scottish Cup quarter-final, survival would represent a huge achievement for Brian Reid’s side but how will the favourites tag sit?

Form: United finished the season, as is becoming customary, with a number of defeats. Seven in nine games to be precise but wins away to Livingston and at home to Dundee were enough avoid an automatic return to the First Division with a game to spare, having done enough between January and the start of March to open up an advantage over Queen of the South.

Stats: Quite simply United have shipped too many goals this season. Despite eight clean sheets, more than Queen of the South, Hamilton and twice as many as Raith Rovers, 67 goals have been conceded,  3 or more goals on 12 occasions. Injuries (and suspensions) haven't helped and Brian Reid has been forced into using six different centre-back partnerships. Going into the play-offs, John Robertson and Martyn Campbell are injury doubts and, worryingly, Chris Smith has made two or three costly and uncharacteristic errors. 

In their favour, time-after-time, Brian Reid's man have shown tremendous character and a never-say-die attitude: Ayr have clawed back an impressive 17 points from a losing position this season.

Key Men: Former St. Johnstone and Blackpool striker Keigan Parker hasn't set the heather on fire since his return north but two goals of exquisite quality versus Dundee last weekend signalled that the now 29 year-old striker could play a big part in United’s survival hopes. Parker has play-off pedigree – in 2007 he scored Blackpool's second goal in their 2-0 win against Yeovil Town in the League One play-off final at Wembley. 

Keigan Parker: time to shine?

Alongside Parker, ‘keeper Kevin Cuthbert has picked up most of the Player of the Year awards this season and has made very few mistakes and many more terrific saves between the sticks, while the goals of Mark Roberts and Michael Moffat were instrumental in Ayr's success last season. Moffat warmed up with two goals against Falkirk on the final day of the season.

Play-off record: P8, W5, D3, L0, F19, A11 - The Honest Men haven't lost a game in the play-offs, earning promotion to the First Division in 2009 and 2011. Ayr have won all four of their away ties, including decisive second-leg games at Airdrie and Brechin.

Odds: 15/8

Airdrie
Season so far: Airdrie clinched fourth position and the final play-off spot on the last day of the season with their first goalless draw of the season at Champions Cowdenbeath while Stenhousemuir, with whom they were level on points going into game, crashed 2-1 at home to Forfar.  It was only in April that the Diamonds climbed into the top four as they finished strongly as others faltered.

Form: So often its the form side that is the the most dangerous going into the play-offs and that accolade is undoubtedly Airdrie United's. The Diamonds have lost just one game since 25th February, a run of 11 games that has earned 24 points.

Stats: One statistics stands out for Airdrie and its their disciplinary record. Jimmy Boyle's men have picked up 12 red and 77 yellow cards this season, the worst record in Scotland.  Ayr United travel to Lanarkshire on Wednesday night in the first-leg of the semi-final and will do well to prevent the hosts scoring.  Airdrie have found the net 43 times in 18 home games this season and have only failed to score at New Broomfield once.

Key Men: The Airdrie squad has a good mix of youth and experience. David Lilley and Paul Lovering - injuries permitting - will marshal the defence while big Derek Holmes will be a handful up-front but Airdrie's biggest danger man is likely to be Holmes strike partner, Ryan Donnelly. The highly rated 20 year-old is the Second Division's top goalscorer with 27 goals (non of which have come from the penalty spot).  Donnelly is described by preeminent SFL blogger Craig Telfer in an article for the two unfortunates blog as "a deft and instinctive finisher, [who] displays intelligent positioning and movement in and around the penalty area." and "strong on both feet and a potent threat in the air".  Donnelly has been less prolific since the turn of the year, with three goals in his last 12 appearances compared to 13 goals in the 12 games previous.

Ryan Donnelly: can he recapture his early season goalscoring form?

Play-off record: P14 W5 D3 L6 F22 A18 - Airdrie have a disastrous play-off record and hold the unwanted distinction of losing three consecutive First Division play-off finals. They were relegated from the First Division via the play-offs in 2007, lost to Clyde in the final the following year but benefited from the demise of Gretna to go up. In 2009, Livingston's demotion to the third Division saved the Diamonds again after play-off final defeat to Ayr United.  Their fourth play-off appearance in 2010 finally saw them relegated to the Second Division when Brechin City defeated them at the semi-final stage. 

Odds: 10/3

Arbroath
Season so far: Managed by former Ayr United midfielder Paul Sheerin, Arbroath unfurled their first Championship flag in their 133-year history at Gayfield on the opening day of this season and went on to hammer fellow Second Division new boys Albion Rovers 6-2. Despite losing their next game away to Stenhousemuir, that result was typical of an impressive start to the season for the Red Lichties which reaped 18 points from their first seven games and saw them find the net 23 times. Unfortunately for Sheerin and his side, Cowdenbeath also started the season well and before the first quarter of the season was out it was the Fife side who topped the table, with Arbroath second and it was to remain that way for the rest of the season.

Arbroath fans, including a man in Speedos, celebrate promotion

Form: Arbroath's form has tailed off at the end of the season, with only three wins in their last 11 games.  A 3-2 victory at Central Park at the start of April narrowed the gap to three points with four games to play but ultimately merely delayed Cowdenbeath's title celebrations - Arbroath took just a point from their next two games as the Blue Brazil took six. The following week, Sheerin described his side's defeat at home to Stenhousemuir as "the worst performance I've been involved in since I've been at the club"

Stats: The Red Lichties have averaged over two goals per game this season, netting 76 times in 36 games, eight more than Champions Cowdenbeath. At the other end, they've conceded too many goals (51) and kept only 6 clean sheets.

Key Men: Arbroath strength is in the midfield.  At the age of 37, player-manager Paul Sheerin can still pick a pass with one of the finest left foots to grace Scotland in recent years, as can former Motherwell, Hibs and Scotland (albeit under the Vogts era...) midfielder Brain Kerr and the diminutive 21 year-old Josh Falkingham, who would surely be playing at a higher level if he was a few inches taller. In front of that trio, neither Steven Doris and Gavin Swankie are out-and-out strikers but have an incredible 72 goals between them in the last two seasons.

Play-off record: P12, W3, D4, L5, F13, A13 - The Angus side have enjoyed both success and failure in four Second Division play-off campaigns. Defeated at the semi-final stage in 2005/06 and 2006/07 it was third time lucky the following season with aggregate victories over Cowdenbeath (after extra-time) and Stranraer earning promotion in 2008.

Two years later and it was back to the Third Division football as Arbroath were relegated via the play-offs, losing out 2-0 in the final to Angus rivals Forfar at Station Park after the first leg at Gayfield ended goalless.

Odds: 5/2

Dumbarton

Season so far: Dumbarton secured their highest finish in the league since 2004 – and a play-off spot – in their penultimate game of the regular season and will be looking to reach the second tier of Scottish football for the first time since 1996. The Sons can look towards a ten-game unbeaten run comprising 8 wins and 2 draws at the turn of the year which helped establish the side’s play-off credentials after what is fast becoming a trademark slow start to the season. The Sons ended the first round of nine fixtures in seventh position and were shipping an average of 2.55 goals per game but, despite a dismal March which brought only four points from 6 games (and saw 14 goals conceded), Dumbarton looked comfortable in third spot since mid-February.  

Form: Ended the season with three wins to finish six points clear of fourth placed Airdrie United.

Stats: Not only have Dumbarton been slow starters over the course of the season, Adamson's men have generally been slow starters in matches. Their first-half record is ranked 8th in the Second Division - they have been leading after 45 minutes on just eight occasions meaning they have required some pretty big second periods to earn their seventeen league wins.

Key Men: Former Ayr United duo Bryan Prunty and Scott Agnew are Dumbarton’s top goalscorers this season with 14 and 12 goals respectively. A striker that thrives on confidence, Prunty scored 18 goals in 2008/09 and his goalscoring seems to come in bursts: seven in 10 games during Dumbarton's purple patch but only one in nine since the start of March. Agnew was more of a peripheral figure during his time at Somerset Park but regular football, at Stranraer and then Dumbarton this season, has seen the playmaker become an integral player more than capable of getting his name on the scoresheet. The Sons will be a big danger at set-pieces with his dead ball prowess.  And what about former Kilmarnock striker Craig Dargo? He scored a hat-trick on the final day of the season and would surely love to exorcise the demons of that penalty miss at the Somerset Road in 2001.

Craig Dargo. Surely not?

Play-off record: This will be Dumbarton’s first foray into the end-of-season play-offs.

Odds: 3/1

Welcome the new Hibs. Same as the old Hibs?

The ball was fired into the box by Andy Rodgers. It looped into the air and Mark Roberts controlled it with his left foot. Shifted on to his right, then his left. His right again. And then again on to his left before sending a curling shot along the ground past Graeme Smith. Typical Marko. 417 days later Hibs return to Somerset Park desperately looking to avoid a repeat. This time they'll meet a stronger Ayr United side, a Division higher and on a rich vein of form having won three games in fourteen days to lift themselves of the foot of the First Division. But what can we expect from a new look Hibs side and are they set to go the same way as Inverness, city-rivals Hearts and St. Mirren this season? 

Pat Fenlon has undertaken a radical overhaul of the Hibs squad since replacing Colin Calderwood at the end of November, recruiting no fewer than eight new players. Indeed, the Hibs side that lines-up at Somerset Park tomorrow will bare no resemblance to the one that crashed out of the competition to the Honest Men last season, with all but two of the starting line-up that night having departed Easter Road.

Fenlon’s new recruits represent a mixed bag of future prospects, former prospects and unknown foreign quantities. A leaky defence has been replenished with 20-year old full backs Matt Doherty and George Francomb on loan from Wolves and Norwich respectively and James McPake, borrowed from Coventry City until the end of the season. Given the captain’s armband in the continued absence of Ian Murray, McPake started his career at Livingston alongside the likes of Robert Snodgrass and Graeme Dorrans but the 27 year old has failed to make the same impact south of the border as his Almondvale alumni, making 39 appearances in two-and-a-half season for the Midlands club. Also added to the equation is the ‘Gambian Roberto Carlos’, Pa Saikou Kujabi.

The Hibs defence, however, remains suspect, looking non-too clever in conceding four against Motherwell and five against Celtic in recent weeks. Goalkeeper Graham Stack came in for particular criticism for his display against a Celtic side admittedly at the top of their game.

In midfield, Hibs have added Honduran internationalist Jorge Claros, who was shot in the head last year during an attempted carjacking. Nicknamed ‘The Pitbull’, Claros and the formidable presence of Isaiah Osbourne will most likely carry out the graft for the Hibees in the middle of the park, although Claros is much more than a destroyer and can pick out a pass and is comfortable on the ball. Fenlon’s more attacking options in midfield include home-grown talents David Wotherspoon and Louis Stevenson and another player on-loan from the English Premiership, Tom Soares. Opening his Hibs account with two goals versus Kilmarnock at Rugby Park a fortnight ago, Soares was a promising youngster coming through the ranks with Crystal Palace and earned four England U21 caps. In 2008 he moved to newly-promoted Stoke City in a £1.25 million deal but has made only seven Premier League appearances. Ominously for Hibs, loan spells at Charlton and Sheffield Wednesday have ended with both sides being relegated.

Hibs under Colin Calderwood were heavily reliant on Garry O’Connor for goals, with the former Scotland interationalist netting seven of the Leith side’s first 11 league goals. Since October however, the goals have dried up for O’Connor as a persistent ankle injury has taken its toll. Leigh Griffiths – when not gesticulating at his own supporters – has weighed in with seven but Hibs haven’t been prolific, scoring 15 goals in 14 league games under Fenlon and have failed to find the net in five of their last seven games.

If O’Connor is not deemed fit enough to start on Saturday, yet another on-loan player Roy O’Donovan is likely to get the nod. Signed by Roy Keane in 2007 from Cork City – where he had an impressive strike-rate of 31 goals in 76 games – he spent much of his Sunderland career out on loan, including at Dundee United in 2008 before signing for Coventry in June 2010. A more recent recruit to from the League or Ireland Eion Doyle is also an option, and has already netted two Scottish Cup goals this season against Cowdenbeath and the winner against Kilmarnock in the last round.

Building virtually a new team in a matter of months was never going to be easy but any improvement in Hibs’ fortunes under Fenlon hasn’t manifest itself in results. While Colin Calderwood blundered his way to 14 points from 15 games at the start of the season, Fenlon has added just nine from his 14 games. Hibs now sit in 11th in the SPL, two points ahead of Dunfermline – that’s no bigger an advantage than when Fenlon took over Hibs, then placed 9th. Additional victories have come in the Scottish Cup: at Cowdenbeath – where they conceded after just 30 seconds but went on to win 3-2 – and 1-0 at home to Kilmarnock but Fenlon shouldn’t take too much heart from a job professionally done at Central Park as he faces another ‘tricky tie’.

Brian Reid’s approach to the game will be intriguing. Will he stick with the same side and formation that has served him so well over the past thirteen days? Or will he revert to the tried and tested 451 approach that has seen Ayr knock out three SPL sides this season and run a fourth very close? It seems likely that it will be same again for United for two key reasons. Firstly: Reid's midfield options are limited. Alan Trouten is struggling with both hamstrings and is unlikely to be fit, Jamie McKernon and Ross Robertson are no-more than bit part players and lack the experience or quality you feel to come into a game like this. Secondly: it would mean breaking up the Parker-Roberts partnership upfront. Parker could do a job upfront on his own and is a willing runner now up to full speed but his pairing with Roberts looks to be mutually beneficial, making the most of the class both players posses.

So, Ayr’s approach to the game is likely to be far more positive than in recent encounters with SPL sides, through necessity and form. It will be important that the front two, along with Moffat and McGowan wide press the Hibernian defence and full backs. Tomsett and Geggan – at the centre of United’s marked improvement in recent weeks in every respect – will have to be at their best, harrying, hustling and denying Hibs easy time on the ball. This area could be a concern for United, not in terms of the performance we can expect from Tomsett and Geggan but that Hibs lack real width (unless Ivan Sproule is given an unexpected start) and therefore could have a numerical advantage in the middle of the park. That lack of width is perhaps a good thing with Ayr's young full backs Jonathan Tiffoney and Adam Dodd potentially the weak links in an already makeshift back four.

Judging by the media coverage in the run up to the game emanating from Easter Road, Hibs seem to be pinning a lot of  hopes on just not being that side defeated 14 months ago and that they came through that Cowdenbeath game.  But Somerset Park will be a different proposition and its not often a Second Division side knocks out one from the SPL (last year excepted, of course).  Ayr fans have first hand experience that hastily assembled teams of loan players do not always work and to date there has been no evidence that Pat Fenlon's Hibs are any better than Colin Calderwood's Hibs. If they are that bad there is every chance Ayr United could be looking at another semi-final in what is fast becoming a very memorable season.

Part-time thinking

Adam Dodd had only been at Somerset Park for a fortnight but he already knew the script: “There is a huge difference between part-time and full-time and we put in a real effort and deserved to get something out of the game, or at least take it to penalties" he told the Herald after United’s semi-final defeat at Hampden. It is a familiar mantra – Ayr boss Brian Reid uses it in almost every interview you hear or read. Whether to take the pressure off his squad and engender an ‘underdog’ spirit as United fight relegation against exclusively full time opposition, or to take pressure of himself as an ambitious manager looking to move upwards in the game, there can be no doubt over the contractual status of Reid’s squad.

Unless you are Kenny Shiels of course. The contrary Kilmarnock manager caused a storm in the run up to the semi-final by claiming on BBC Radio Scotland Ayr United were not part time: “I don’t know where they get this part-time thing from. They are very much a full-time team” the Northern Irishman maintained. To underline his point Sheils made reference to United signing two players from Blackpool (Dodd and Tomsett on loan) and, bizarrely, goalkeeper Cammy Bell fitting a kitchen in his own home.

“We have to make it quite clear that they’re not part-time, they are full-time". 

Kenny Shiels on Ayr United

Brian Reid was affronted and the next day winger Mickey McGowan was on the back page of the red tops in a hard hat. Reid said: “I’m shocked, to tell you the truth. I’m struggling to understand where Kenny is coming from or exactly what it is he is trying to say.

“Is he calling us liars? It certainly looks that way.

“We are part-timers up against a side from the SPL and we are the underdogs. We are not lying about that.”

Michael McGowan: not a full-time footballer

A psychology graduate, Shiels - perhaps concerned about meeting the less cerebrally gifted Reid on a dark night - admitted he was playing mind games.  How else could you explain the Ulsterman claiming Kilmarnock (population 45,000) were the underdogs going into the semi-final because Ayr (population 46,000) is a bigger town? He was trying, unconvincingly, to take the pressure off his side.  But, whisper it, I think Sheils was making a good point about Ayr United's part-time status. A point that was seemingling missed by a rattled Reid and lost in the tabloid hubris surrounding the derby.

Sheils, not a stranger to being misunderstood, speaks from experience having managed in Northern Ireland for a number of years. "The boys are more professional now, they will have done their work and I guarantee they will have done as much work as us and they will be well rested" he said. Again after the game: "...do you think those guys are part-time? Modern players, whether they are with Ayr, Montrose or East Fife, they do their preparation because they have so much pride in being a good footballer".

If you give Brian Reid the credit for having the nous, the Kilmarnock manager called it correctly: "I've been in that position and what you do, as a manager, is you bring it up all the time to try to use it to take the pressure off your players.

"I don't blame Brian for doing that, it's a method of trying to take the pressure off his players.

He is working really hard to be the underdog and I can appreciate that."

Realism is important but I don't think some positivity from would go amiss from Brian Reid, for players and fans alike.  By constantly playing the part-time card, Reid may be taking the pressure off his players but is he also giving them an excuse?  Why not build belief in the players - and the fans - that Ayr United can match their opposition? Completely missed in the furore surrounding Sheils' post-match comments was the root of his frustration at Ayr's tactics: “Ayr were good enough to win. They have good players.

"You just have to make them believe that. You have to make them believe they are good.

"Their players' work ethic and endeavour was magnificent but it was a negative approach."

I've discussed the rights and wrong of United's approach in that game, but did the players believe that they could match Killie? More importantly, do they believe they can stay in the First Division?

The presumption is that part-time teams will 'run out of legs', tire in games against full-time outfits.  But Ayr have shown this season that they are a fit side, more than a match even for SPL sides. They took Hearts to extra-time in September. Matched St. Mirren for 90 mins in October, finishing the stronger and scoring a late winner. Both midweek games.  Indeed, as pointed out by Ross Moffat on twitter, no side in the First Division has picked up more points in final 10 minutes of games than the Honest Men, a season changing seven points from defeats turned to draws and draws into victories.  Brian Reid and his staff, and the players, deserve enormous credit for this.

United did come unstuck last Tuesday at Firhill, but the reason for Partick Thistle's second-half was as much to do with circumstances and schedules as it was United being part-time. Six nights previously, United had been chasing shadows for the first half-an-hour versus an exuberant Falkirk side but, with an extraordinary effort came back to finish the game stronger. At the weekend, a long journey to Dingwall and back was interspersed with a battling performance against league leaders Ross County in difficult conditions and on a heavy pitch. Any side, no matter how fit, would have struggled with that going into their third game of the week. Added to that a makeshift defence, weakened further by the loss of John Robertson when the score was still 1-1, and it was simply a bad day (or night) at the office.

Brian Reid hasn't always seen part-time football as such a hindrance. Following his first promotion to the First Division in 2009, he told the Ayrshire Post: “I don’t buy the argument that there’s a huge gap to make up and we certainly won’t be using the part-time excuse.” What changed? Ayr battled for the Second Division title in Season 2009/10 against a Raith Rovers who, like Ayr, hand a mix of part-time and full-time players.  The following season, United battled against relegation against Rovers and part-time Airdrie.  A disastrous run of just one win from their last 10 games saw United finish bottom on the final day of the season, two points behind Airdrie. The Diamonds - with a similarly punishing scheduled and part-time squad - picked up 17 points...

The psyche was probably changed the following season. Livingston romped the Second Division as the only full-time side. United finished 23 points behind Livi, but more interestingly with 15 points less than Season 2008/09.  That season saw some horror results against sides, (annoying football cliché alert) with all due respect, Ayr should have been beating. 4-1 away to Alloa and Forfar. 4-0 at home to East Fife. 3-1 at home to Stenhousemuir. Shocking results that had nothing to do with Ayr United being part-time and everything to do with Brian Reid's shortcomings as a tactician and man manager. Livingston's full-time status was a convenient excuse. Play-off success was the get out of jail card for the manager.

This season, unlike Season 2010/11, Ayr are the only part-time in the First Division but so far are holding their own, very much in a three-way relegation battle involving Raith Rovers and Queen of the South. Yes, full-time teams have more time to work on shape and tactics. More time to recover. But if Brian Reid can install the belief his players that they are match for any side in this division, regardless of whether they deliver pigs trotters, work on building sites or train full-time, hopefully the conclusion to the season can be positive.

Draw at Dingwall signifies improvement

October 1st 2011. Ayr United travelled up to Dingwall with a makeshift defence, conceded a goal in the fifth minute... and went on to lose 4-0 against Ross County, the third consecutive away game they had conceded four goals. Fast forward 20 weeks and Ayr United travelled north with a makeshift defence, conceded a goal in the seventh minute... and went on to earn a point in a gritty, characterful performance played out in wintry conditions.

Missing John Robertson - still out with a calf injury that can't heal quick enough - and Martyn Campbell, Brian Reid lined up with the same defence that ended United's impressive cup win over Falkirk last Wednesday, meaning Eddie Malone partnered Chris Smith with Adam Dodd dropping to left-back (for a more in depth look at Ayr's line-up and shape see rosscountytactics.com's excellent analysis).  It may have been an unfamiliar back four but County's opener was more predictable. Ayr have certainly improved their set-piece play in recent weeks, in defence and attack, but a low ball into the near post was deflected out by McMenamin and the second ball into the box was nodded on for Grant Munro to prod home from six yards.

That early lead really should have put the game into the 'routine' category for the champions-in-waiting but Brian Reid's men should be commended for matching their opponents on a heavy pitch. Ayr had a lot more possession than expected but the usual suspects, McGowan in particular, were often guilty of giving away the ball by trying to pass one man too many and simply not moving the ball about quickly enough. County - despite resting six players for their midweek cup game at home to St. Mirren - seemed to find it difficult to get out of second gear and lacked that creative spark to break through a disciplined performance from the away side.

Reward for that endeavour came on 80 minutes when, almost out of the blue, Blackpool kid Liam Tomsett picked the ball up in space 30 yards out and didn't need a second invitation to unleash an unstoppable shot into the top-right hand corner. (A goal that I really wish I had been paying attention to see...). It capped off another strong performance from the 18 year-old midfielder, full of energy and a game awareness that belies his age.  Added into the mix was a goal line clearance at the death as Ross County finally showed some urgency but that, coupled with a couple of excellent saves we've come to expect from Kevin Cuthbert, was enough to see out the final whistle.

Liam Tomsett struck a sensational equaliser

News over the Victoria Park tannoy that Queen of the South had conceded yet another late goal turned this point from a good one to a great one and the Honest Men now travel to Firhill on Tuesday night with the chance to climb out of the bottom two spots in the league table for the first time since the start of December.  Ayr have now drawn six of their last eight league games, and while it has kept them in touch with relegation rivals Raith Rovers and Queen of the South, need to start converting one points - and games in hand - into three points.

Tiffoney. No stranger to a red card. 

Ayr and Thistle played out a dismal goalless draw at Somerset back in December but that point saw Ayr climb to 8th place.  If Ayr are to repeat that on Tuesday it will have to be without Jonathan Tiffoney. Ayr's right back picked up a red card almost immediately after Tomsett's equaliser to add to the three he received last season. With over 50 first team starts under his belt, the majority of them at right back, the oft stated excuse: "he's not a right back" is starting to wear thin. Its natural that any youngster will struggle for consistency but Tiffoney is often his own worst enemy. Losing possession, looking for fouls, snarling at referees and rash challenges are all part of the 20 year-old's game he could do without. Not many agreed when Brian Reid brought in Jim Lauchlan to replace Tiff at right-back towards the end of last season, but the rational was understandable. John Robertson seemed to be Brian Reid's first choice in that position at the start of this season, but injury to Martyn Campbell necessitated his move to the centre where he has forged an impressive partnership with Chris Smith. Now Robbo has joined Campbell on the sidelines, Tiffoney's latest mis-demeanour is less than welcome with the squad so stretched and he may find he's replaced by a new face for a second consecutive season.

To end on a negative would be a disservice, however, to the efforts of Brian Reid's players. Beyond the unbeaten run - seven games if we're only counting 'normal time' - there have been notable improvements to the side, and aspects of United's game, which should stand them in good stead for the run in. If we can somehow have more luck with injuries, Ayr have every chance of staying in this division. That, more than any cup run, would be a massive achievement.

United's season Bairn again?

May 25th 2005. The Champions League Final. The Atatürk Olympic Stadium in Istanbul. Liverpool turn round Milan's three goal advantage in the space of only six second-half minutes on the way to fifth European Cup. Nothing about Ayr United's Scottish Cup 5th Round victory over Falkirk on Wednesday night quite matched the scale of that occasion, but the comeback was certainly of similarly unlikely proportions.

Falkirk started the game like a train. The first 20 minutes or so was perhaps the finest display I've seen in the First Division. The Bairns were passing and moving at lightning speed and Ayr were chasing shadows. After six minutes, sixteen year-old Craig Sibbald ran at Tiffoney, passed the ball back to Willie Gibson who laid it off to left-back Tam Scobbie. His deep cross into the box found 19 year-old Blair Alston - given too much room by the returning Martyn Campbell sixteen yards out - and the youngster looped an unstoppable header right into Cuthbert's top right hand corner. Even at this stage I thought the game could well be over.

1-0 after six minutes and it looked like game over

Minutes later and an out-of-sorts Jonathan Tiffoney gave the ball away to Sibbald who's cross found the dangerous Moroccan Farid El Allagui six yards out but he was unable to steer the ball goalwards. This was ominous. It wasn't a case of Ayr sitting back, defending, standing off even - something that appears to becoming clichéd accepted opinion of Brian Reid's team following the League Cup semi-final. Ayr just simply could not get the ball from the visitors.

So, when Andy Geggan forced home an equaliser 13 minutes later there was a huge sense of relief. "OK, we might not get hammered here". Influential in the build up to the goal was Micheal Moffat. Restored to undoubtedly his best position up front, Moff took in a throw in from Eddie Malone, jinked and played the ball into Adam Dodd at an acute angle on the box. Dodd rocketed the ball against the cross bar, the ball may have crossed the line, but Geggan made sure.

That knock put Steven Pressley's team out their stride just enough. There was a penalty claim as Sibbald went down in the box but Malone hadn't done enough for referee Crawford Allan to point to the spot. I've seen the Falkirk youngster go down easily before, perhaps so has Allan. Falkirk were still on top, but quite as much as on top as previously.

At half-time it was level and Brian Reid did his best Rafa Benítez. Playing on his 27th birthday Micheal Moffat was playing like a man determined to prove Reid has been wrong to leave him stranded on the left of midfield. Not that some of his best plays didn't come out wide. Moments into the second-half, Moff received a ball up the left touchline, turned Darren Dods and accelerated away from the veteran defender and bore down towards the Somerset Road End in an exhilarating display of individual skill and pace. The stramash that ensued ended in Ayr's first penalty appeal of the night but signalled The Honest Men's intent and an intensity that wasn't to give up for the remainder of the game.

Instrumental in United's remarkable revival in the second-half was the introduction of Micheal McGowan for Alan Trouten on 51 minutes, Trouten's troublesome hamstring again playing up. The front four of Dodd, Moffat, Roberts and McGowan were pressing high up the pitch, right on top of the Falkirk defence. In the centre of the park Geggan and the impressive Tomsett were sweeping up, making it difficult for the Bairns to pass their way out their own half.

Just 5 minutes after his introduction, McGowan had created what was to prove the winning goal. Receiving his own throw back from the always available Tomsett on the left he made for the touchline. After getting the better of highly rated Falkirk right-back Keiran Duffie, McGowan crossed into a packed penalty box where the experienced Dods inexplicably handled. The same-aged Mark Roberts showed significantly more composure, making no mistake from the spot. Falkirk keeper Micheal McGovern didn't even move.

United didn't give up. They continued to press and harass. Falkirk were forced to go long and were clearly rattled by the home team's intensity. McGowan continued to run at Dark Blue shirts. Unlike for most of the season, however, the former Clyde winger was passing one, two, more men and the delivering. ''If he played like this every week, he'd be playing for Man City'' one North Terracing observer noted.

There was a third penalty shout as McGowan tricked his way into the box and struck the ball at Huddersfield-bound Murray Wallace. Another move down the right brought a shot which McGovern appeared to carry over the line. Yet another presented Andy Geggan with a guilt edged chance at the back post he could only cushion against the post. Breathtaking.

There is no doubt Ayr deserved this win. Steven Pressley threw on two giants up front at the death to supplement El Allagui but that simply isn't Falkirk game, even against a makeshift defence following Martyn Campbell's injury.

Ayr's remarkable unbeaten midweek cup run was extended to eight games in a performance that bodes well for the remainder of the league season. The final 45 minutes was perhaps the best football Ayr have played all season. The addition of Blackpool loan-duo Adam Dodd and Liam Tomsett as added a better balance to the side with a natural left sided midfielder and a real impressive operator in the centre of the park in Tomsett. The 18 year old has all the energy of Steve Bowey but vitally also a composure on the ball that could see him play an important part in Ayr's survival hopes.

Those survival hopes are unlikely to be given much of a boost later today (Saturday) as the Honest Men take on league leaders Ross County at Victoria Park, where the Staggies are yet to lose in the league this season. Injuries to John Robertson and Martyn Campbell will necessitate a reshuffle at the back meaning even bookmakers odds of 9/1 (or better) may be generous. But Ayr need to start picking up league points sometime and there would be no better place than at the home of the Champions-elect. Relegation rivals Raith Rovers and Queen of the South have both earned a point against County in recent weeks, albeit at home. A win for Ayr would send a strong message to Kirkcaldy and Dumfries. The side proved on Wednesday night they have it within them.

Striking the right balance

Ayr United's postponed Scottish Cup fourth round tie versus Falkirk, due to be played at Somerset Park last Saturday, gave Brian Reid the opportunity for some much needed time on the training ground with his squad. In the run up to the League Cup semi-final, Reid described some of the practical difficulties he faces seeing his players for only 90 or so minutes, twice a week. Chief amongst the difficulties of competing with boys clubs and amateur sides for half of a floodlit artifical pitch was the shortage of time to work on tactics and the shape of the side.

The need to hit the tactics board appears to be all the more necessary following the Honest Men's January transfer dealings. Along with the recruitment of Blackpool teenagers Adam Dodd and Liam Thomsett on loan, Ayr have added three strikers: Sean Higgins, Keigan Parker and Marc Dyer. With only Tam McManus leaving the squad following an entirely underwhelming return, Reid now has plenty of striking options to choose from. It's left United fans wondering how the side will line-up for what is sure to be a relegation battle.

This season has seen Brian Reid rotate his front men, Gareth Wardlaw, Mark Roberts, Micheal Moffat and latterly, Tam McManus. With nine league goals between them, they haven't been prolific and United are the league's lowest scorers - the only side to manage less than a goal a game average.

League appearances only. Source: www.andysstats.co.uk

Reid's favoured front two has been Roberts and Wardlaw, but the two have failed to strike much of a partnership.  Wardlaw has been Reid's go-to man when he has played one up front and is Ayr's best option in this role with his hold-up play and physicality. Top league goalscorer Micheal Moffat has been employed mainly in midfield, wide of both a 4 and a 5. This has been much to the chagrin of supporters - Moffat has show in glimpses when played through the middle he has something more to offer in an advanced role.

Brian Reid will be hoping his new recruits can help Ayr find the net more regularly. Sean Higgins has signed on loan from St. Johnstone having made just one start and three substitute appearances for the Perth side this season. Speaking after recruiting Higgins from Tayside rivals Dundee in the summer, then Saints boss Derek McInnes said: "Sean is a player we've looked at in the past because he's got good technical ability. He's a finisher and he had a great second half of the season before he got injured. He can play off a main striker as well, which is something we've not really had”. Higgins netted nine goals in the First Division last season – including 7 in an 8 games spell between February and March – as Dundee bounced back from administration and a 25 point deduction to put together a long unbeaten run but his season was cut short when he was forced to undergo knee surgery.

Higgins career actually started at St. Johnstone but he was unable to make the breakthrough and moved Ross County in 2002 without making a first team appearance for the Saints. He netted his first goal for the Staggies against Ayr United that season and in seven years at Victoria Park went on to make 211 appearances, scoring 56 goals. County fan and respected First Division analysis John Maxwell of the Ross County Tactics blog concurred with McInnes’ assessment of the player, commenting on his great technique and work rate in harassing defenders. Describing how Higgins enjoyed being supporting forward at County rather than leading the line, John suggested  Higgins was better with a focal point to play off and that Micheal Moffat would be an ideal strike partner for Higgins, Moff’s pace forcing defences to sit deeper thus giving ‘Higgy’ more space. 

Parker: hopefully toasting success again in May

Another player with pace, is Keigan Parker. Now 29, Parker’s career has taken somewhat of a tumble down the English leagues in recent years since his departure from Blackpool in 2007. Like Higgins, Parker started his career at St. Johnstone where he made 144 appearances between 1998 and 2004, scoring 25 goals and never really cementing a regular starting spot despite his promise. Colin Hendry took Parker south to Blackpool on a free transfer in June 2004, his first signing in a short tenure in the Bloomfield Road hotseat. Parker netted 41 goals in 3 seasons with the Seasiders, including two memorable strikes in the 2007 League One play-offs versus Oldham and Yeovil in the final as Blackpool clinched promotion to the Championship. That Wembley play-off goal was to be Parker's last for the Club, however, as he failed to earn a regular start in the Championship and was released by manager Simon Grayson at the end of the season 2007/08.

In the three seasons following, short lived spells at Huddersfield, Hartlepool, Oldham Athletic, Bury, Mansfield Town and FleetwoodTown reaped 11 goals in 93 games and plenty of motorway miles. Parker started this season at Blue Square Premier side Stockport County but was at the Cheshire club for only a month, making just one substitute appearance under boss Dietmar Hamman. The reason for his abrupt departure unknown, in September Parker signed for Evo-Stick Division One North side AFC Fylde. The standard of the second tier of the Northern Premier League – the 8th tier of English football – is anyone’s guess but Parker has netted 13 times in 28 appearances for Fylde this season, helping them to the top of the table and impressed in a recent bounce game for Partick Thistle. Boss Jackie McNamara told the Glaswegian newspaper: "Keigan played in a bounce match for us this week and did well. He is a player I have always rated but there's just no money to sign him. He is quick and scores goals and is a good age but unfortunately we won't be able to bring him in at this stage."

Parker’s last goal for Fylde can on the 14th January in a 7-0 win over Harrogate Railway in front of 321 fans and he leaves Lancashire with the best wishes of manager Dave Challinor, the original Rory Delap. Challinor told Fylde’s website: “Keigan has actively been looking to re-locate to Scotland…it’s an opportunity for him to start again. He’s still 29 and should now be in the prime of his career – he just needs to continue to work hard and get his head down to revive his career”. The striker himself said: “It’s a great chance for a fresh start back in Scotland for me and I am looking forward to it.”

There is no doubt the Brian Reid is taking somewhat of a risk bringing Parker back north, but I think any comparisons with another journeyman striker – Junior Mendes will prove to be wide of the mark. Mendes signed for Ayr in November 2009 at the age of 33 and having retired from the game that summer and was arguably never fit. Parker on the other hand has been playing regularly this season and banging the goals in, albeit in a successful team at a fairly low level of English football. There aren’t too many strikers in the First Division that were playing at Championship level just 4 years ago and if, as David Challinor says Parker can ‘get his head down’ he could prove to be a gamble well worth taking.  At 29, time is still on his side. 

I would be surprised if Higgins and Parker don’t form Brian Reid’s chosen strike partnership and the evidence suggests they could be successful pairing. Higgins appears hungry to get back playing, Parker to resurrect his career in Scotland.  But Ayr also also have options in abundance if injury or lack of form strike.  Providing Reid utilises his striking options wisely, and boldly, the Honest Men have all the tools they could hope to have to score the goals that will secure their First Division status.

Is there no defence for defending?

Saturday 29th January - Scottish Communities League Cup Semi Final
Ayr United 0, Kilmarnock 0
Kilmarnock win 1-0 after extra time

Jose Mourinho brought the term 'parking the bus' to British football after his Chelsea side were unable to unlock a resolute defensive display from Tottenham in September 2004 and it has subsequently entered the lexicon of football clichés.  It carries entirely negative connotations, yet has contributed to some famous results: Scotland twice beating France in 2006 & 2007, Rangers' UEFA Cup run in 2007/08 and Mourinho's own Inter Milan at the Nou Camp as they beat Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate to reach to the 2010 Champions League. So some of the vitriol aimed at Brian Reid for employing the same approach against local rivals Kilmarnock in a Scottish Communities League Cup semi-final tie billed as the biggest ever Ayrshire derby has been surprise.

Ayr's semi-final tactics didn't please everyone...

A football game can be approached in two ways. You can go out to win, or you can go out not to lose. The best approach? Well, that depends primarily on the strengths and weaknesses of your side and of the opposition. Ayr's strengths during their run to the semi-final was being difficult to breakdown. Being well organised, and resolute and frustrating higher league opponents. There was no rational for changing the approach for the semi-final. Not the wide expanses of Hampden Park. Not the 25,000 crowd. Not the opposition. If first and foremost you set out not to get beat, the chances to win the game will come along. Possession, completed passes and creating goal scoring opportunities do not give a team the right to win a football match.

Ayr's only change to the starting XI that defeated St. Mirren in the quarter-final saw St. Mirren youngster Jamie McKernon come in for local lad Ross Robertson in midfield. That meant that Gareth Wardlaw came in for Mark Roberts up front with Michael Moffat withdrawn to a wide midfield spot as Ayr went 451. The formation worked against an atrocious on the night Inverness side in a gameAyr dominated. It was perhaps fortunate to work against Hearts in the next round of the League Cup as Ayr capitalised on a defensive error, questionable disallowed goal and some woeful penalty kicks from the Jambos. But it worked an absolute treat in the quarter-final at St. Mirren Park.

Back to the buses and Danny Lennon was irked by Ayr's tactics on the night: "What did they bring to the game?" asked the St. Mirren manager. "For all our dominance we couldn’t break down a parked bus and eleven traffic wardens". There was credit for sticking to the game plan, but definitely not the performance. Which grated a little. Brian Reid responded: “If parking the bus gets you the result then I’ll park the bus and take it. As the game wore on we were the better team". He was spot on. Urged on by a noisy travelling support in Paisley, Ayr finished the game strongly. Set piece after set piece was won and after 81 minutes Eddie Malone's perfect delivery into the box was met by the head of Chris Smith for the winner. It was the Honest Men's only attempt on target in a game in which they had given up 64% of possession yet it was a deserved win for a United side that grew in confidence in the face of a toothless St. Mirren attack.

This is what Ayr United tried to replicate at Hampden. They didn't come for penalties as suggested by the Telegraph's Ewing Grahame. Penalties were not Ayr's only hope as asserted by the Sunday Mail's Gordon Waddell. Brian Reid told Chick Young post-match his side had not come looking for penalties and his word should be enough. Penalties would have merely been the consolation for the game plan not quite working out. At least Waddell had the good grace to express admiration for Ayr sticking to their guns, recognising that if they had opened up Killie had the armoury to make them pay: "The Honest Men were well within their rights to play the game they needed to get the outcome they wanted". Grahame showed no understanding, to the extent that makes you wonder if he was in full possession of the facts. I certainly doubt he sees much of Ayr United. "Negative". "A staggering lack of ambition". A shoe-horned reference to Scotland's 4-6-0 experiment and even an opening gambit that Brian Reid had effectively failed his audition for a move to a bigger, full time club. Disappointing.

After the game Kenny Sheils, Killie's unorthodox manager, had a lot to say about the tactics of the Honest Men, perhaps where Grahame took his steer. The Ulsterman is after all an engaging and convincing character. Musing that Ayr had employed the same coach company used at St. Mirren, he said. "Football is about entertainment. People come and pay to be entertained and the easiest component in football, or any sport, is to defend. But anybody can do that". No, Kenny they can't. As pointed out by United's kid reporter Michael Lamont, if that were the case maybe Killie wouldn't have conceded nine goals in two games versus Inverness. And wouldn't have had to change both centre-backs for their Hampden appearance. Defending is every much as part of the game as attacking.

And Brian Reid's job wasn't to entertain. It was to win the game. In this of all games a victory was all that mattered. Had Ayr pulled off a repeat of their exploits at St Mirren Park – and they came very close at Hampden – to criticise the game plan would have entirely churlish. Describing United's approach as 'negative', 'anti-football' and lacking in ambition misses the point. It is disrespectful to Brian Reid and it is actually disrespectful to the quality possessed by Kilmarnock. Yes the game plan was to soak up pressure, to frustrate but importantly it was also to counter attack. To use Wardlaw’s ability to hold the ball up front and the pace and direct running of McGowan and Wardlaw on the flanks. The fact that Ayr were unable to implement this aspect of the strategy was not down to a negative approach. It’s not as if players were refusing to cross the half way line.

New centre-back partnership aside, a subtle alteration to Killie’s shape improved their capacity to dominate this game. Winger James Dayton supplemented the support given to loan front man Paul Heffernan by Gary Harkins and Dean Sheils, giving Killie more width than in recent weeks. With support from left-full back Ben Gordon this stretched the game and made it difficult for Ayr to break from their defensive third. When they did, too often there just weren’t enough numbers to make the ball stick – it’s difficult for the midfield to be in two places at once – when it did, well Kilmarnock were no strangers to a strategic foul to stop any momentum.

The game simply didn’t open up they way Ayr’s quarter-final against St. Mirren had. Maybe it was the big Hampden pitch. Maybe it was the occasion. Or just maybe it was because Kilmarnock have the better players. No one would argue Kilmarnock were the better side, or that they deserved to win the tie. But don’t tell me they deserved to win to because of Brian Reid’s tactics. They deserved to win because they were patient, persistent and because, eventually, they got the goal.

Kenny Sheils felt that Ayr have good players and that if they had ‘come out’ could have won the match. I can’t agree. It’s not Ayr’s strength and it would have simply left too much space for Killie’s front four to do serious damage. In a First Division campaign where Ayr have predominately been on the back foot, on the occasions where there has been an onus on the side to come out and attack they have been found wanting, notably at home to Annan Athletic in the Ramsden Cup and also versus Montrose. Indeed, United’s best attacking display of the season arguably came against Inverness, where the counter attacks became so frequent it looked like an onslaught. He may think that football is about two teams going out to win a game, and that only one side did that on Saturday butAyr did try to win the game. There should be no apologies or teeth gnashing because the approach to winning the game was not for the purists.

One thing Sheils did get right was that the Ayr players deserved enormous credit for their work rate and how much they put into the game. Ayr United fans should be immensely proud of what the side has achieved in the League Cup this season. After 45 minutes on Saturday it was ‘so far so good’. After 60 minutes ‘we’re still in it’. After 70 minutes even Kenny Sheils thought we were going to win it. The bottom line is that  Ayr's approach had them 11 minutes (and penalty kicks) away from the biggest result in the club’s history.