Are the kids alright?

Looking at the progress of Ayr United’s young players under Mark Roberts

When Mark Roberts was appointed manager of Ayr United in May 2012 it was intended to herald a change in direction for club.  Chairman Lachlan Cameron, in announcing the departure of Brian Reid and the promotion of Roberts, stated that the club wished to place greater emphasis on the ‘youth pathway to the first team’ and talked of the ‘bubbling pool of talent’ within the Academy, now in its 8^th year. There was to be a greater emphasis on young, home-grown talent.

With Roberts under increasing pressure, fairly or otherwise, after a sporadic series of heavy defeats and disappointing performances it seems an appropriate juncture to consider this area of his remit, particularly with rumours that Mark Shankland – one of the Academy’s brightest prospects – has asked to leave the club (Roberts has subsequently quashed the rumour, indicating the 18 year-old forward ‘needs to do better’ and ‘earn the right’).

Shankland, and others, may have justification for their frustrations. In 58 league matches in charge, Mark Roberts has fielded on average just one Academy player per game*. Taking account of the fact that Robbie Crawford was almost an ever present last season, making 33 league starts, it would appear that first-team opportunities are as limited for Academy prospects under Roberts as they were under Brian Reid, despite the initial rhetoric.

In Reid’s final season in charge, nine Academy players were used (taking account of league games only), amassing a total of 4207 minutes playing time, albeit over half of these can be attributed to Jonathan Tiffoney. This total is only 488 minutes less than Roberts’s first season in charge.  Yet, at the end of last season Roberts disingenuously claimed: “our remit at the start of the season was to bring through the kids and in that aspect we have done brilliantly”.  The claim doesn’t hold water. Robbie Crawford’s obvious talent demanded he became a first team regular: Roberts’s first choice midfield pairing at the start of the season was David Sinclair and Ryan McStay. Otherwise, Ross Robertson was Roberts’s first choice as strike partner for Michael Moffat at the start of the season, but was quickly withdrawn from the first team (and eventually sent on loan to Glenafton).  Mark Shankland also started the season, playing on the left and scoring against East Stirlingshire, but he too was dropped, only returning after a spell on trial with Birmingham (during which time Roberts seemingly discovered the player was a striker).  Wylie, Longridge, Wardrope, Nisbet all were given just few minutes at the end of the season. 

Even fewer Academy players have been selected by Roberts so far this season.  In 22 league matches, Academy players account for just 6.85% of total playing time.  Robbie Crawford has been in the starting line-up on 10 occasions, Alan Forrest 4 times (in addition to 10 substitute appearances) but beyond this, appearances for Aaron Wylie (who has subsequently left the club), Jackson Longridge, Mick Wardrope and Mark Shankland have been restricted to just a handful of substitute appearances, totalling little over 100 minutes. 

Beyond examining quantitative data concerning appearances and playing time, further evidence of Roberts’s reluctance to play Academy players is demonstrated in his selections in defence.  When Gordon Pope was suspended after picking up a red card against Airdrie United in August, it appeared to be the ideal opportunity to give Jackson Longridge a run in the team.  Instead, Roberts chose to play Michael Donald at left-back. The loss of Donald’s presence in midfield was keenly felt and United drew both games during Pope’s ban, including against 10 man Brechin City, despite taking a two-goal lead.  On the two occasions when injuries led Roberts to play Gordon Pope at centre-back, again Donald and not Longridge was used at left-back; Ayr lost 5-1 away to Dunfermline and 3-6 at home to Stranraer.

Ayr have been short defensively all season, with Martyn Campbell injury woes continuing which has highlighted the absence of another youngster (albeit not one who has come through the Academy) Josh McArthur, which is approaching something of a mystery.  McArthur started Ayr’s opening game of the season at Arbroath and looked competent alongside Alan Lithgow in what was an easy victory for the Honest Men.  His withdrawal after an hour, with the game won, seemed to make little sense.  McArthur has played just once more this season, as a 20^th minute replacement for Campbell in Ayr’s narrow defeat at Partick Thistle in the League Cup. He hasn’t even been named on the subs bench since the start of December.

The fate of Longridge, McArthur and many others follows a fairly familiar pattern.  Glimpses of early promise – Longridge was named man of the match on his debut at home to Dundee back in April 2012 – followed by long spells of inactivity as far as the first team is concerned, with Roberts often preferring to pick square pegs in round holes.  There seems little prospect of 17 year-old McArthur making an appearance any time soon, despite United’s enduring search for a centre-back: “I’m looking everywhere for a central defender. I need someone who has played a lot of first team games and is an organiser”.  Roberts has also talked of the need for another striker in light of Michael Moffat’s impending suspension, despite Shankland champing at the bit for game time.

Of course, the young players on the fringes of the Ayr United first team may simply not be good enough. Roberts’s priority first and foremost is to win football matches and to do this he needs the strongest team possible.  He trains with these young players, regularly plays alongside them in Reserve game so is perhaps is the best person to judge whether they are ready for first team football. Conversely, there must be a case that young players require a run of games to assimilate themselves with the endeavours of senior football and opportunity to learn from mistakes.  A player can only prove they ready for first team football if they are given the opportunity to do so and at present only Alan Forrest and Crawford (slowly returning from illness) are being afforded this chance.

Introducing young players into first team football is not straightforward.  While it has borne dividends at Dundee United, Hamilton, Falkirk, Kilmarnock and other clubs, it can be a gamble.  And Mark Roberts may feel he is able to take what he perceives to be a risk.  Almost from day one, Ayr’s Challenge Cup defeat to East Stirlingshire in his first game in charge, Roberts has been under pressure. After just four months he admitted his job was at stake and since December 2012 the calls for Roberts to be sacked have never really gone away.  Can the manager trust youngsters like Shankland (who demonstrated his value when coming off the bench with his goal and performance against Partick Thistle in August), Longridge (who could do a job on the left when Michael Donald is flagging), McArthur or even Wardrope, Nisbet and others when they could make a mistake that might cost the side vital points? 

Or the other way of looking at is: ‘what has he got to lose?’  Senior players are equally capable of making mistakes, as evidenced at Stenhousemuir on Saturday.  Signings such as Kevin Kyle, culpable for a glaring miss at the end of the game, may be a ‘safe bet’ for Roberts but, in restricting the opportunities for others, (particularly in this case Shankland, a player who has previously attracted the attention of Liverpool, Rangers, Celtic and a number of English Championship sides) demonstrates the short-termism that has blighted Ayr’s on-field fortunes for too long. If Roberts had afforded Shankland the same patience as Kyle you suspect he may have had greater slack from United’s ever demanding support. As it is, fewer and fewer of those supporters appear convinced of Roberts‘s aptitude for the job.

Playing young players may cost Mark Roberts his job – it is difficult to envisage how he could continue in his role beyond the summer if the Honest Men fail to make the promotion play-offs at least. At the same time, Roberts was mandated to give Academy players the opportunity of first team football and this is not happening. Roberts’s apparent failure, so far, to integrate more younger, home grown, players into the team – or at least give them a fair chance – must be seen as another of his shortcomings.

League appearances by Ayr United Football Academy players

Season 2012/13 (Brian Reid)

	Apps	Sub off	Sub not used	Mins
Aaron Wyllie	0+(1)	0	0	11
Darren McGill	1	1	0	66
Gareth Armstrong	2+(2)	1	13	196
Jackson Longridge	1+(1)	0	0	161
Jonathan Tiffoney	30+(2)	2	1	2536
Robbie Crawford	1	0	1	90
Roddy Paterson	1+(1)	1	1	80
Ross Robertson	9+(11)	1	13	895
Steven Hutchinson	1+(1)	0	2	172
				4207

Season 2012/13 (Mark Roberts)

	Apps	Sub off	Sub not used	Mins
Aaron Wyllie	5+(4)	2	12	446
Darren McGill	2+(1)	2	1	186
Jackson Longridge	2+(1)	0	0	195
Mark Shankland	5+(8)	5	8	467
Michael Wardrope	0+(2)	0	0	46
Robbie Crawford	33+(2)	6	0	2970
Ross Robertson	3+(10)	3	5	354
Ryan Nisbet	0+(1)	0	0	31
				4695

Season 2013/14 – after 22 games

	Apps	Sub off	Sub not used	Mins
Aaron Wyllie	0+(1)	0	7	18
Alan Forrest	4+(10)	3	3	545
Jackson Longridge	0+(2)	0	13	46
Mark Shankland	0+(5)	0	12	42
Michael Wardrope	0+(1)	0	8	1
Robbie Crawford	10+(3)	5	4	839
				1491

Source: andysstats.co.uk

* 58 league games equals 57420 minutes playing time (58 games x 11 players x 90 minutes). The aggregate playing time of AUFA players has been 6186 mins, which works out at 10.77% of total minutes. One player playing 90 minutes in all games (58 x 90 = 5220 mins) would represent 9.09% of total minutes.

Selfless Malcolm a great assist for United

Striker Craig Malcolm currently finds himself out of the Ayr United first team, having lost his place to Kevin Kyle. The summer signing from Stranraer – who scored 48 goals in 112 appearances for the Stair Park club and netted 18 times in the Second Division last season – started the season in decent form, forming a promising partnership with Michael Moffat but struggled to find the net, scoring twice in 10 starts. At times, the 26 year-old’s finishing has been poor and he has squandered a number of very presentable opportunities, most notably against Airdrieonians at Brechin City home.

Malcolm celebrates his only league goal this season 

Yet, Malcolm can consider himself unlucky. His contribution to the side as a foil for Michael Moffat and his general hardworking attitude have perhaps gone unnoticed. This is reflected in the fact that Malcolm tops the assists chart at Somerset Park, with five. The first four of these assists have much in common. Malcolm has received the ball in the box with his back to goal, under close scrutiny for opposition defenders, and laid the ball off to a team mate who has scored. The best example of this is Mark Roberts’s goal at Stenhousemuir but Malcolm has also played a part in Alan Forrest’s winner at Hampden (where he played a 1-2 with the young forward); Michael McGowan’s strike at Stranraer and Michael Moffat’s opener against Brechin.

(Malcolm’s fifth assist came against East Fife, when he was able to get on the wrong side of his opposite number, collect a throw-in and square to Michael Donald to score Ayr’s forth of the match).

At times it has been difficult to imagine how Malcolm scored 18 league goals last season, in what was after all a fairly limited Stranraer side. He does not look to be a natural finisher, often snatching at chances and displaying a lack of composure; he does not have great pace or composure on the ball and he isn’t dominant in the air. Yet, the statistics speak for themselves and what is clear is that Malcolm played an important role in the side up until the arrival of Kyle, and his hold-up play and unselfishness was profitable to the side’s fortunes. United have often been criticised for a reluctance to shot, yet in Malcolm have a player who creates shooting opportunities for his team mates.

The opportunity to sign Kevin Kyle looks to be one Mark Roberts will not regret. Replacing Malcolm in the team for the visit of Rangers – after, it has to be said, two uninspiring substitute appearances as a trialist – he has gone on to play an important part in the side’s latest two victories, providing an exquisite assist for Scott McLaughlin at East Fife with the skipper returning the favour the following week, swinging in an inch perfect corner from which Kyle opened his account against Arbroath. With the former Sunderland and Hearts striker’s fitness increasing with each game (Kyle is visibly slimmer than he was a month ago), he brings a gravitas and physicality to the side that Malcolm simply doesn’t posses. Kyle is comfortable in taking the lead role in the side, however, arguably hasn’t yet fully integrated with his team-mates. His partnership with Moffat especially appears to still require some fine-tuning.

Kyle brings a new, albeit sometimes primitive, dimension to United’s play which has been effective but Malcolm’s contribution should not be overlooked. Hopefully Malcolm will continue to apply himself (he has two goals in three games for the Reserves) and does not become too downhearted by his absence from the starting XI. With Kyle’s injury record – and the fact his deal is up in mid-January – it is likely Malcolm will return to the team, a fact United fans should not be disheartened about.

Assists – 2013/14 (all competitions)

Malcolm	5
McLaughlin	4
Donald	3
McGowan	2
Campbell	1
Roberts	1
Kyle	1

STATS! Michael Moffat's 50 goals for Ayr United

Michael Moffat signed for Ayr United on 10th January 2011 from South Ayrshire Junior club Girvan. The striker quickly became a fans favourite and was instrumental in the Honest Men's promotion via the play-offs at the end of that season, scoring in each of Ayr's four play-off ties, including a memorable winner at Glebe Park. On Saturday 12th October 2013, the Moff scored his 50th goal for the club, in his 120th starting appearance. To celebrate, here is an in-depth look at those 50 goals:

592	minutes played until his first goal for the club.
9	matches at Somerset before scoring a home goal.
54%	of goals scored away from home.
7	goals versus Arbroath (in 4 games) more than any other side.
22	teams against which Moffat has scored.
10	penalties.
6	goals in cup competitions.
10	goals scored in August, Moffat's most prolific month of the year. He is yet to score a goal in December.
16	times Moffat has been the first goalscorer.
1	goals scored in Moffat's 8 substitute appearances - an equaliser at home to Queen of the South in March 2012.
46%	first-half goals
78%	first-half goals this season (7 out of 9)
4	number of goals scored in the 90th minute or later - two have been winning goals.
2	hat-tricks.
62%	of games Moffat has scored in that United have won. Ayr have lost just 6 games in which Moffat has scored.
0.39	goals per game.
80	Moffat's 50th goal was his 18th in 2013, eqaulling his tally for the whole of 2012 with 80 days of the year to go.

STATS! United's all-time record on artificial surfaces

Ayr United travel to Ochilview on Saturday to face Stenhousemuir with a less than glorious recent record on artificial surfaces. United played 9 fixtures on artificial surfaces last season - including four games at Station Park - and failed to win any of them, starting with a shock defeat to East Stirlingshire on the opening day of the season. In all the Honest Men have played 30 competitive fixtures on artificial surfaces. Here is a run down of some statistics covering those games:

P30 W9 D7 L14 F41 A50

1st	On the 5th Semptember 1987 Ayr United were involved in the first ever Scottish League fixture to be played on an artificial surface at Annfield, home of Stirling Albion.
1.66	United have conceded an average of 1.66 goals per game and kept 6 clean sheets in 30 competitive matches on artificial surfaces.
2	Ayr have taken just 2 from a possible 24 points in their last 8 league games on artificial surfaces.
5-0	Ayr's biggest win on an artificial surface came at the Excelsior Stadium in March 2011 when they beat Airdrie United 5-0. It is United’s last league victory on an artificial surface.
7	United have played on artificial surfaces at seven different grounds against nine opponents. This includes Brechin City at Forfar’s Station Park last season.
9	Ayr have nine wins and have earned 7 draws on artificial surfaces meaning they are unbeaten in 53% of their competitive fixtures on the surface.
10	SPFL grounds now have artificial surfaces. Ayr are yet to play on five of them (Falkirk, Hamilton, Queen of South, Annan & Clyde) in a competitive fixture. United didn’t play on Dunfermline's plastic pitch which was in place between 2003 – 2005 but did play two games at New Douglas Park on its original artificial surface.
21	It is 21 months since United's last win upon an artificial surface, which came in a Scottish Cup replay in November 2011 at Montrose. That is a run of 10 matches without a win on an artificial surface.
41	United have scored 41 goals on artificial surfaces, an average of 1.36 per game.
87%	The Honest Men have scored in 87% of their matches on artificial surfaces.

The Campbell conundrum

It was an all too familiar sight. 26 minutes into Ayr United’s match against Airdrieonians on Saturday defender Martyn Campbell crumpled to the Somerset Park turf. After a cursory assessment from the physio, the 32 year-old was replaced by Alan Forrest (a player half his size and half his age) and a defensive reshuffle ensued. It was the second such instance this season. In the League Cup at Firhill, United’s second match of the season, Campbell jogged off the park after only 22 minutes with a calf strain that ruled him out of Ayr’s league opener at Arbroath.

The latest injury, a hamstring complaint the full extent of which is still to uncovered, prolongs Campbell’s injury woes, confirming another false dawn and poses significant questions over his continued involvement in Ayr’s starting line-up this season.

Signed in July 2005 from Irvine Meadow, Campbell has made 184 appearances for the Honest Men, averaging over 20 games per season. The statistic hints at the numerous lay-offs which have blighted his time at the club.

Campbell nets the first of his three goals for the club at Gayfield

Campbell played 23 and 21 games in his first two seasons at Somerset Park, absent only for short spells in September 2005, March/April 2006 and again in September 2006. His second season, however, was curtailed by injury and that would signal nearly nine months out. An attempted return in December 2007 the following season saw him limp off after only 8 minutes of his second comeback game, and it was March 2008 until he returned.

The following season saw Ayr United promoted via the play-offs and Campbell played a key role in the side’s success, playing 37 matches, missing only seven matches through injury. He even weighed in with his first goal for the club, away to Arbroath in November 2008. The season was not without disruption, however. Campbell was substituted eight times, on five occasions before the start of the second-half and missed matches in September (a month which appears to be particularly troublesome) and February.

Elevated to the First Division for the first time in his career, Campbell endured a disruptive start to the 2009/10 season. Substituted in both traditional cup openers, including after 25 minutes against Stirling Albion, it was September before he first featured in the league. Another injury in November (Campbell limped off after 10 minutes against Queen of the South) kept the defender out until the end of January. In his return to the side he was unable to prevent United’s relegation, despite being a key figure in a remarkable eight-match unbeaten run between mid-February and mid-March. That run came to an end in a crucial mid-week match at Cappielow. Campbell was forced off after 48 minutes and Ayr went on to lose the match and seven of their remaining eight matches.

United, and Campbell bounced back from that disappointment by securing an immediate return, again via the play-offs the following season. Again Campbell was a mainstay of the side, making 40 appearances in side that had the rare luxury of a generally settled back four. Unfortunately, he has been an largely unreliable figure ever since.

Season 2011/12 saw Campbell start the season with a rare goal (only his third for the club) against Queen of the South in the Challenge Cup on the opening day of the season, a match that went to extra-time. Three games into the league campaign he was involved in an almighty contest with Falkirk’s Morrocan striker Farid El Allagui. The match and the personal duel between Campbell and El Allagui was thrilling: the Morrocan won the contest – Campbell was sent off for a crude challenge on his adversary after 73 minutes – but the game was drawn. Four days later, Campbell lasted only 10 minutes in United’s impressive League Cup victory over Inverness at Somerset Park.

Martyn Campbell jumps higher

After sitting out one league match through suspension, Campbell was back for two consecutive away games, at Partick Thistle and Morton in mid-September. He, and Ayr, toiled, conceding four goals in each match. Campbell went on to miss the next 16 league games. Playing through a painful knee, Campbell went into hospital in October for a routine operation but surgeons found significant cartilage damage that was to keep him out beyond January. The last two months of the season were particularly frustrating, with Campbell in and out of the side. In total, Campbell made 12 starts in an unhappy season as the Honest Men were relegated, at home, by Airdrie United in the play-off semi-final – one of only eight games Campbell played for the full duration.

Worst was to come last season, Mark Roberts’s first in charge. Not risked on Ochilview’s artificial surface in the Ramsden’s Cup Campbell strolled through Ayr’s 6-1 demolition of Clyde and was still on the field when Ross McMillan grabbed a last minute equaliser for Stenhousemuir in the first league game of the campaign. Campbell was named in the starting line-up at Gayfield in the following game – but did not play. A twinge felt in the warm up saw Mark Shankland take his No. 4 shirt and a wholesale reshuffle of the team. Campbell played just 10 more minutes, an early substitution (just like versus Inverness the preceding season) ended his involvement against St. Mirren, and for the rest of the season.

Campbell's season ended after just 3 games last season

It is to Campbell’s immense credit that in November last year he told the club to effectively rip up his contract and stop paying him, as he underwent another knee op. Speaking at the time, Campbell said:

“I don’t want to take anything while I can’t give anything back. 

“I would rather they used my wage to bring someone else in. I love the club and want to see Mark Roberts do well so hopefully this will help. 

“Ironically, I’ve been in my best shape for years apart from the left knee which has a chipped bone. I’ll have the operation, then begin my rehabilitation and take it from there. 

“I’ve no thoughts of packing it in and am desperate to be playing.”

A return to first team action before the end of the season was hinted at in January, with Campbell again maintaining that he was physically in the best shape of his career… apart from the knee. He was one of three players invited back to pre-season to ‘prove his fitness’ but strangely didn’t feature in Ayr’s trip to Leigh to face Romanian opposition (it was suggested that Campbell was instead in Florida). The only game time Campbell had pre-season was during two low key friendlies at Cumnock (where he played 35 minutes as a second-half substitute) and Kilwinning. Mark Roberts was quoted as saying:

“It has been a long road back for Martyn but there is definitely light at the end of the tunnel now”.

That light appears now to have dimmed. Which is an enormous shame as, alongside Alan Lithgow, Ayr United had found a no nonsense centre-back partnership which was shaping up to be one of their best for a long time. While perhaps not the most mobile, the side strolled to wins against Queen’s Park and Forfar with the pair in-situ – conceding only a penalty at Hampden when the ball came off Gordon Pope’s arm. In that game, one particular moment in the second-half where he made a timely intervention to prevent the Spiders going 2-0 up hinted Campbell was back to his best.

Alas, it seems not to be the case. In the wake of the Partick Thistle match Roberts suggested that it was natural Campbell would pick up ‘wee niggles’ after being out for a year but admitted he could no longer rely on the man they call ‘Bobo’. “We’ll get big Bobo fit sometime in his career.” Roberts said, not without a degree of optimism.

This may indeed just be a ‘wee niggle’ for Campbell, but Roberts must now learn the lessons of previous campaigns and bring in a reliable defender to partner Lithgow. The manager failed to address this problem last season, instead moving Austin McCann into centre-back and signing Marc Twaddle. It was an unmitigated disaster. Two central-defenders were eventually signed in January, Chris Smith and Neil McGregor but neither lived up to their reputation. Anyway, it was arguably too late to salvage a dismal season.

The impacts of Campbell’s fragility are not only felt over the course of a season, but losing Campbell early on in games has been a regular hindrance. In almost 10% of the matches Campbell has started for Ayr he has been substituted before the second-half has kicked off. This invariably has a detrimental impact on the side, evidenced as recently as Saturday when his injury led to Gordon Pope moving in from left-back, Michael Donald dropping from left-midfield to left-back and Alan Forrest coming on at left-midfield. Without Campbell – or a direct replacement – Airdrie were able to equalise and for the remainder of the first-half United looked uncertain in a match they had been dominating. Regardless of whether Roberts is going to put his faith in 17 year old John McArthur (who has performed reasonably well when called upon but wasn’t selected even for the bench on Saturday), a new centre-back is a necessity.

Bobo looked to be back to his best vs. Queen's Park

Many would have thanked Campbell for his efforts (and not to mention his gesture to go unpaid) at the end of last season and moved on and there is a danger that this recent injury episode serves to prove them right. Unfortunately, it is impossible to assess Campbell without reference to his injury record and reliability. Next season would be Martyn Campbell’s 10th at Somerset Park, a long-service record few players achieve in the modern game. It would be great if he could come through this season – and a rigorous pre-season – to earn another contract. There is no doubt Campbell is a good defender, solid in the tackle, strong in the air, experienced...

...when fit.

Martyn Campbell's Ayr United career stats:

	Starts	Subs	Total apps.	Off	Off before HT	Mins.
2005/06	20	3	23	3	1	1809
2006/07	18	3	21	5	1	1542
2007/08	12		12	3	1	974
2008/09	37		37	8	5	2931
2009/10	27	1	28	5	2	2224
2010/11	40		40	5	2	3444
2011/12	12	3	15	3	2	1020
2012/13	3		3	2	1	190
2013/14	5		5	3	2	314
	174	10	184	37	17	14448

Mo' Money, Mo' Problems?

This blog’s last entry – some six months ago* – was written before Ayr United, under new manager Mark Roberts, had played a competitive fixture. While it was cognisant of the dangers of reading too much into pre-season matches, it reflected on a series of results and performances (including a comprehensive win over Motherwell a and credible draw with Bolton Wanderers) which gave cause for an upgrade in the usual pre-season optimism. Some bookmakers even saw fit to install United as the title favourites. 

Roberts had his new look squad playing possession football, passing the ball short and at speed and his new recruits appeared a perfect fit for the player-manager’s vision, each comfortable in possession.  While some concerns remained around the defence; particularly goalkeeper Ally Brown; a lack of width in midfield (although this was countered by the attacking play of Ayr’s full backs); and squad depth, the attractive and attacking football had a feel good factor envelop Somerset Park.

This was to quickly dissipate. 

A humiliating 3-1 defeat away to East Stirlingshire on the opening day of the season was countered by a tantalising demonstration of the way it was supposed to work.  Clyde were routed 6-1 but, after conceding a last minute equaliser to Stenhousemuir at Somerset Park, Ayr went on to lose four of their first five league matches.  A 2-0 reverse at Stair Park saw the Roberts and his players return to the sight of Somerset Park festooned with a banner giving a blunt assessment of their efforts.



Fans showed their displeasure after just four league games

Sixteen points from the next 21 available served to turn down the heat on Roberts but performances failed to convince: two of Ayr’s five wins in that run of results – against bottom sides Albion Rovers and Stranraer required last minute penalties.  Even a 3-0 win over Brechin City, achieved with ten men, could be downplayed in hindsight by the paucity of the opposition.  Ayr, for all but the briefest of glimpses, struggled to recreate the football demonstrated in pre-season.  

The season’s nadir (just shading the defeat at Stranraer) came at Cliftonhill on Boxing Day.  In themselves, the surroundings served as a sobering reality check but nothing compared to the performance on the field.  A lethargic, hapless, rabble took to the pitch in white shirts that day, seemingly without a game plan to break down a very limited side and at full time Roberts became embroiled in a heated exchange with a supporter.  Ayr were meant to have turned the corner but the 2-0 defeat represented a fourth consecutive loss and, just three points from the foot of the table, Mark Roberts was back to square one, his position under intense scrutiny.  There has been no significant improvement in results since then, either, with just one win and three draws from six games.

The reason for Ayr United's position does not require over analysis: defensively they have been very poor, as discussed in more detail in mid-September. Because of injury (rather inevitably to Martyn Campbell and John Robertson), departures (Tiffoney) and arrivals (McAusland and Twaddle) and Roberts' attempts to find the right balance, Ayr's defence at the start of the season was in a near constant state of flux. Unfortunatly, this did not resolve itself when a more regular back-four of McAusland, Brownlie, McCann and Twaddle was deployed.

The defeat – and aftermath – to Albion Rovers did seem to create the crisis situation Ayr’s position deserved.  The manager took the unprecedented step of calling for supporters to rally round.  That interview mentioned the number of young players featuring for Ayr this season. Indeed against Rovers six players under the age of 20 were on the field together for the majority of the game, but in truth it has been the more senior players, brought to the club by Roberts (and mostly former teammates), who have disappointed this season.  United's best and most consistent performer has been 18 year old Robbie Crawford, without question.

Roberts also warned fans that there would be no quick fix. "We’re not one of those clubs that can throw £500 at a new player... I do not want to moan about budgets though".  However, one month on and throwing money at new players was exactly what Roberts was able to do.  A £7500 sponsorship from the Club's 'development partner' has been, quite incredibly, been usurped by an additional £20000, and rising, thanks to the fundraising efforts of Somerset Boab (including sizeable donations from Chairman Lachlan Cameron and sponsors Bodog). 

Unquestionably the money, to be used exclusively to boost playing budget, is a huge fillip to Mark Roberts and very welcome.  However, a note of caution. With the cash windfall comes a significant pressure – and the undermining of a huge excuse for Mark Roberts.  Ayr United’s results simply must improve in the remaining three months of the season.  If they do not, Roberts has very few places left to hide when it comes to pointing the finger of blame.  Any attempt to plead poverty (already a questionable line of argument when compared to Ayr's Second Division rivals) will simply not stand up to scrutiny.  With a contract in place for next season, Roberts' position is relatively secure but he will do little to enhance his reputation, or convince the doubters, if Ayr cannot finish the season strongly.

Adding to the pressure upon Roberts is that signing players in January, especially those with experience as required at Somerset Park, is not easy.  The quality of the three players signed – Neil McGregor and Chris Smith, out of favour at Dundee and Falkirk respectively, on loan and striker Liam Buchanan, who has returned from Ireland’s summer season – is therefore pleasing.  In particular, McGregor and returning hero Smith are both the dominant centre-half type the side has been missing since as far back as August, when Martyn Campbell again broke down.  Roberts was well aware of this deficiency, but was clearly unable to address it.  Various combinations of McCann, Robertson, Brownlie and McAusland have all failed to convince.

There has been some improvement in recent weeks, arriving from a change in formation. Earlier in the season Roberts played 433 and 4312, largely due to the lack of natural wide players at his disposal (Micheal McGowan could have made a real difference this season, alas his signing appears to have been folly. McGowan managed only 237 minutes before succumbing to the knee injury he seemingly hadn't recovered from). The signature of Micheal Donald, a natural left sided midfielder, has allowed Roberts to play a more traditional 442 in which the players look more comfortable and the side more balanced.  Donald, whose last club was Maybole Juniors, seems an unlikely kingpin but impresses with every game.

The big question is what are Ayr’s expectations now?  The assumed level of expenditure demands that simply avoiding relegation will not be good enough (not that it ever was).  And hence aspirations of a promotion play-off spot are raised.  With 15 league games to play, the Honest Men, in eighth, are nine points off 3rd position. The matter is further complicated by the potential value of two games versus Rangers in the Second Division next season and the, yet unclear, implications of league reconstruction. Regardless, Mark Roberts needs to quickly start winning games. Whether this enables a genuine tilt at promition is not of primary concern. 

McGregor, Smith and Buchanan showed glimpes of their value at Alloa on Saturday, but again Ayr threw away a two goal advantage, managing only a draw. This, more than anything, has been the side's bête noire this season - 23 points have been dropped for a winning position.  Mark Roberts' managerial career is dependant on seeing some tangible return on the money, a large proportion of it from the pockets of supporters, at his disposal. If not, that money will fuel the fires that say he is not the right man for the job.

* I hadn't completely given up writing about football, contributing periodicially to the excellent Tell Him He’s Pelé site - the place for thought and insight on the Scottish Football League. Take a look if you haven’t done so already. 

Five things learnt from pre-season

Pre-season. Every year I resolve not to bother. Somerset Park can seem a long way and £10 can seem a lot of money to see a kick about. The resolve never lasts, however, and the pre-season optimism and intrigue over new players takes over. Managers will tell you that pre-season games are not about results and all about match fitness but new gaffer Mark Roberts was also keen to use the series of five games to work on the team’s shape and style of play, which has already seen a radical overhaul.

It can be dangerous to read too much into pre-season but the Honest Men can be reasonably pleased with their endeavours, drawing one-each with Queen’s Park, a full strength Bolton Wanderers side and Irish hatchetmen Glentoran. A thumping 4-0 win over Champions League-bound Motherwell had heads turning while a 4-1 defeat versus Partick Thistle reflected the number of youngsters and trialists on show, with Roberts resting most of his main men.

Notwithstanding (well, ignoring) the main caveats: what did we learn from United’s pre-season?:

Starting XI

Unlike pre-seasons of the recent past, United have fielded a fairly settled line-up and used only a limited number of trialists, with the exception of the Partick Thistle game. Goalkeeper Ally Brown and the Jonathan Tiffoney were the only players not involved in the opening fixture at Lesser Hampden. Former Stenhousemuir goalkeeper Brown featured as a second-half substitute in Ayr’s second game against Motherwell and has kept the No. 1 jersey since (and subsequently signed) while Tiffoney returned to action in the penultimate game versus Bolton.

This continuity of selection should stand the side in good stead when the action starts for real on Saturday. Barring injury the side to face East Stirlingshire is likely to line-up:

Brown

Tiffoney   J. Robertson   Brownlie  McCann

Merenghi   Sinclair   McStay   Shankland

R. Robertson   Moffat

Otherwise, Martyn Campbell has the biggest claim to be involved in place of Brownlie but Ochilview’s artificial surface may be the deciding factor in Marko’s decision. Also, there is some confusion regarding Tiffoney’s future. Dundee, apparently, remain interested but unwilling to pay a fee for the 20 year-old. It may be that John Robertson plays at right-back with Campbell and Brownlie pairing up in the centre.

Squad

Beyond the starting eleven, pre-season has shown Ayr’s squad to be fairly limited in numbers. Add Martyn Campbell and the manager himself to the eleven listed above and that’s it in terms of ‘senior’ squad members. Roddy Paterson and Robbie Crawford head the list of U19s that can be expected to be involved, while defender Alan Murdoch has also featured.

Of the trialists used but not signed, David Winters, Paul Harkins and Grant Mosson were given limited game time and mostly failed to impress. Unfortunately for Micheal McGowan, and for Ayr, his appearance as a trialist lasted only 5 minutes before he succumbed to a reoccurrence of the knee injury picked up at the end of last season. McGowan has claimed it not to be serious – and he scored in a ‘Reserve’ game against Cumnock on Wednesday night – but Mark Roberts cannot afford to offer the winger a deal until he’s certain he’s fully fit.

Congolese-born forward Joel Kasubandi remains an option but injury prevented him taking part in the final pre-season game. Somewhat of a wildcard, the speedy19 year-old and could be utilised on the left or up-front thus providing cover for Moffat and Shankland but this would seem to knock Roddy Paterson down the pecking order. Roberts will have to be sure Kasubandi will: a) fit into his vision for the side and b) provides something he doesn’t already posses amongst the U19 squad before gambling on the player released by Morton.

The financial uncertainly following the ongoing fallout from the Rangers saga may have lead to the re-evaluation of Roberts’ budget or Marko could be playing the waiting game to see who he can pick up in August and September but it seems certain that some reinforcements will be required.

Style

It has been clear from the off that Roberts wants his side to play a different way than under Brian Reid. This is also reflected in the players who he has brought to the club. Reid favoured a fairly defensive back-four where the full-backs we’re encouraged to get forward and in midfield the emphasis was primarily on carrying the ball forward, with the likes of McGowan, Trouten, Geggan and the out-of-position Moffat preferring to run with the ball rather than pass it.

The new look Honest Men have instead looked, first and foremost, to pass the ball, short and at speed. New midfielders David Sinclair, Ryan McStay and Antony Merenghi all look comfortable with the ball at feet with Sinclair adopting the ‘quarterback’ role of taking the ball deep from the defence and distributing it forward. With a relatively narrow midfield – there are no natural wingers – the full-backs have been encouraged to push forward, with the nominal left and right midfielders providing cover. This was shown to good effect with Tiffoney’s role in the equaliser against Bolton, where, receiving the ball from Roberts he burst past the Bolton full-back and defender to cross the ball to Roberts around the penalty spot.

Up front, Roberts has returned Micheal Moffat to his rightful position and put his faith in Ross Robertson. Brian Reid saw Robertson as a centre-back, used him there and in midfield but Marko has seen enough to convince him the 21 year-old can lead the attack. While it may take time for ‘Rossco’ to adjust to the role, what he lacks in touch he more than makes up for in his ability to occupy defences with his strength and aerial prowess. Too often in recent seasons opposition defenders have been given an easy time of it by Ayr’s attack and hopefully Robertson can address this. Robertson provides the ‘big man up front’ option missing from Ayr teams for a long time but I don’t expect Marko will be keen to see long balls being played from back to front. As a target man, however, there are signs that Robertson could prove a useful foil for a hopefully rejuvenated Moffat.

Going from ‘up against it’ in the First Division to among the title favourites in the Second was always going to necessitate a switch in approach that would see Ayr more comfortable on the front foot. Under Reid, last time out in the Second Division, United never looked to be comfortable favourites and rarely dominated games. Hopefully playing a more possession oriented game will prove not only more effective but also more attractive on the eye. The key to turning possession in to goals will be using Moffat’s pace to run at defenders and to exploit space behind opposition defences.

Shankland

 

The highlight of pre-season has been the emergence of Mark Shankland. Roberts has talked up the Mauchline kid almost since the day he took over and the youngster – who only turned 17 two weeks ago – is sure to play a big part this season on the evidence of pre-season.

 

Used primarily on the left of midfield, Shankland also played behind a front two (Moffat and Roberts) in the Queen’s Park game and Roberts has stated he can play anywhere across midfield or up-front. Shankland possesses fantastic technique and composure on the ball. His weight of pass is exquisite and he isn’t afraid to take on his man or to take a shot.

 

Why we didn’t see more of Shankland under Reid remains a mystery but this could now be his time to shine.

 

Suspect

 

(OK, I was struggling for a fifth ‘S’…) The biggest cause for concern on the park has been the number of free headers given up at corners and free-kicks. This very specific thing has been a long-running Achilles heal of United. There has been much debate surrounding Campbell at the start of what will be his seventh season at Somerset Park. Campbell’s strengths and weaknesses are fairly plain to see. He isn’t going to look comfortable with the goalkeeper rolling the ball out to him short, but at the same time up against a burly target man, few get the better of the now 31-year old defender as evidenced by his performances against Motherwell’s Michael Higdon and England International Kevin Davies. Then there are the inevitable question marks over his fitness. ‘Bobo’ managed only 15 appearances last season and Ayr had a fairly rotten record when he did start.

 

The jury is still out on keeper Ally Brown also. He doesn’t come with glowing recommendations from supporters of previous clubs and in pre-season has looked unsure when going for balls played into the box. If the defence can prove itself to be be solid and reliable then the side should have an excellent platform for playing the type of game Roberts wants.

 

To finish on a negative would be entirely inconsistent with the overall feeling around club about the new season. Fairly natural at the start of any season you could say, but in Mark Roberts we have a manger committed to entertaining the supporters with attacking and attractive football and that is to be welcomed. As usual, I’m sure it will be a rollercoaster season.